Freight rates are the prices shippers pay carriers or logistics providers to transport goods. In North American surface transportation, rates may apply to truckload, less-than-truckload, intermodal, or other freight services. They may be negotiated through longer-term contracts or established for individual shipments in the spot market.

The final cost of moving freight can include more than the base transportation rate. Fuel surcharges, accessorial fees, equipment requirements, service commitments, shipment characteristics, and lane conditions can all affect what a shipper ultimately pays.

Understanding where freight rates are today is important, but it is only part of the planning process. Shippers also need to understand why rates are changing, where capacity conditions may be headed, and what those changes could mean for transportation budgets, carrier contracts, routing guides, and service reliability.

This article focuses primarily on North American surface transportation, including truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal markets.

What Factors Influence Freight Rates?

At the broadest level, freight rates are determined by supply and demand. Freight demand represents the amount of freight that needs to move. Supply represents the amount of carrier capacity available to move it.

When freight demand grows faster than available capacity, rates generally rise and shippers may have fewer carrier options. When capacity grows faster than demand, rates generally soften and shippers may gain negotiating leverage.

The actual rate for a shipment or contract is more complicated. Transportation teams should consider five major groups of factors.

Freight Demand

Consumer activity, industrial production, housing, construction, imports, exports, and inventory cycles all influence the amount and type of freight moving through the economy.

Retail freight is affected by consumer spending and inventory replenishment. Industrial freight responds to manufacturing, construction, energy, and capital investment. Imports can influence port, rail, intermodal, warehouse, and truckload volumes.

Freight demand can also vary by season, region, commodity, and equipment type. A broad national freight indicator may show modest growth while particular industries, lanes, or trailer types experience much tighter conditions.

Available Capacity

Capacity represents the carriers, drivers, tractors, trailers, and other equipment available to move freight.

Available capacity is influenced by:

• Carrier additions and exits
• Driver availability
• Fleet utilization
• Class 8 tractor production and replacement
• Equipment age and reliability
• Carrier profitability and access to capital
• Insurance and financing costs
• Regulatory and compliance requirements
• Private-fleet and for-hire fleet activity

Capacity can contract even when shipment demand is not accelerating. If carriers leave the market, fleets delay equipment replacement, or driver availability becomes constrained, rates and service pressure can increase before a broad increase in freight volumes becomes visible.

Shipment Requirements

Individual shipment characteristics affect the rate a carrier is willing to provide. Important considerations include:

• Distance
• Weight and dimensions
• Equipment type
• Commodity and handling requirements
• Pickup and delivery schedules
• Appointment requirements
• Shipment frequency
• Volume predictability
• Seasonal demand
• Service expectations

Freight requiring specialized equipment, expedited service, additional handling, or delivery into an imbalanced market will generally be priced differently from predictable freight moving through a dense carrier network.

Carrier Operating Costs

Carriers must account for the cost of operating and maintaining their fleets. These costs include:

• Fuel
• Driver wages and benefits
• Insurance
• Equipment
• Maintenance and repairs
• Financing
• Tolls
• Regulatory compliance
• Terminal and facility expenses

Changes in these costs can influence carrier pricing even when demand and capacity appear relatively stable. Shippers should evaluate whether a requested rate increase reflects broad market movement, carrier-specific costs, or a combination of both.

Service and Network Conditions

A lane’s operational fit also affects pricing. Carriers generally value freight that complements their network, provides predictable volume, reduces empty miles, and allows efficient equipment utilization.

Relevant considerations include:

• Lane density
• Backhaul availability
• Tender consistency
• Dwell time
• Facility performance
• Driver productivity
• Appointment flexibility
• Network balance
• Access to reload opportunities

A shipper with consistent freight, efficient facilities, accurate forecasts, and flexible operating requirements may be in a stronger negotiating position than a shipper whose freight creates delays, imbalances, or unpredictable equipment needs.

How Do Freight Rates Differ by Equipment Type?

Freight conditions do not move uniformly across every equipment category. Dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed markets serve different freight segments and can experience different demand, capacity, and seasonal pressures.

Dry Van

Dry van trailers carry packaged goods in fully enclosed trailers. Dry van is the largest and most standardized truckload equipment category and is closely connected to retail, consumer, manufacturing, and general merchandise freight.

Because of its size, dry van is often used to assess broad truckload market direction. However, national dry van averages can still conceal meaningful differences among regions and lanes.

Refrigerated

Refrigerated, or reefer, trailers transport temperature-sensitive products such as food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, and other perishable goods.

Reefer rates may be affected by produce seasons, food-production patterns, regional harvests, temperature-control requirements, sanitation requirements, and the availability of specialized equipment.

Flatbed

Flatbed trailers transport machinery, construction materials, steel, lumber, energy-related equipment, and other freight that may not fit inside an enclosed trailer.

Flatbed conditions are often connected to construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, utilities, and energy activity. The market may experience significant regional and seasonal differences.

Why Equipment Type Matters

Broad truckload averages provide useful market context, but shippers should evaluate each equipment market separately when establishing transportation budgets and negotiating contracts.

A shipper should not assume that a national truckload trend applies equally to dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed freight. Equipment availability, lane balance, seasonality, and freight demand may differ substantially.

How Do Contract and Spot Freight Rates Differ?

Contract and spot rates represent two different ways of purchasing freight transportation.

Contract rates are negotiated between a shipper and carrier for defined lanes, volumes, equipment, and service expectations. These agreements can improve budget predictability and support more stable carrier relationships.

Spot rates apply to freight purchased for an individual shipment or short period. Shippers commonly use the spot market for unexpected volume, rejected tenders, irregular lanes, overflow freight, or shipments not covered by existing contracts.

Many shippers use both markets. Contract carriers handle recurring freight, while the spot market supplies flexibility when shipment needs or available capacity change.

Spot rates can provide an early indication of a changing freight market because they respond more quickly to immediate supply-and-demand conditions. A sustained change in spot rates may eventually influence contract negotiations, but a national spot-rate average is not a direct substitute for a contract rate.

Contract rates must also account for lane characteristics, volume commitments, equipment requirements, service expectations, and the amount of capacity a carrier is expected to provide.

Current Freight-Rate Market Update

Updated Cass Freight Index® – July 2026 (June data)

Updated July 31, 2026

Freight Rates Accelerate as Capacity Tightens and Contract Pricing Responds

Freight rates entered July 2026 with stronger upward momentum as truckload capacity tightened and contract pricing responded more clearly to earlier spot-market gains.

ACT’s July Freight Forecast showed aggregate truckload spot rates, excluding fuel, increased 43% year over year in June. Aggregate contract rates were 13% higher year over year.

The movement in contract pricing indicates that the rate change is extending beyond short-term spot-market disruption and into shipper bids, contract renewals, and transportation budgets.

The Cass Freight Index®–Shipments component remains an important demand-side check on this rate story. Freight activity is improving selectively, and some freight is shifting from private fleets back toward the for-hire market. However, current conditions are not being driven by a broad surge in shipment demand.

The distinction is important: freight rates are rising primarily because available capacity has contracted, not because freight demand has entered a broad-based expansion.

Spot Rates Continue to Lead the Market

Aggregate truckload spot rates, excluding fuel, were 43% above year-ago levels in June and remained above contract rates.

That relationship points to acute capacity tightness and the potential for additional pricing pressure to move into annual bids and contract renewals. Driver scarcity, continued for-hire capacity contraction, regulatory enforcement, and limited fleet expansion are making it more difficult for the market to respond by quickly adding supply.

Some seasonal moderation may occur during the third quarter. However, shippers should not assume that softer seasonal demand will restore the purchasing leverage available during the previous downcycle. The market is operating with less supply flexibility and a higher rate floor.

Contract Rates Are Responding More Clearly

Aggregate contract rates, excluding fuel, increased seven cents in June to $2.41 per mile and were 13% above year-ago levels.

With spot rates still above contract pricing, additional pressure may move into carrier bids and contract renewals. The effect will not be uniform across every shipper or lane. Pricing changes will depend on:

• Lane balance
• Equipment requirements
• Routing-guide depth
• Carrier availability
• Volume consistency
• Service expectations
• The timing of the shipper’s procurement cycle

Transportation teams should monitor spot-to-contract rate spreads, tender acceptance, primary and backup carrier availability, lane-level capacity exposure, and the speed at which transactional pricing pressure enters routing guides.

Rate Conditions Differ by Equipment Type

Dry van conditions remain firm as available capacity contracts and more freight moves from private fleets back toward the for-hire market.

Refrigerated conditions remain sensitive to produce cycles, temperature-controlled freight patterns, and the availability of specialized equipment.

Flatbed continues to show relative strength supported by construction, infrastructure, utilities, energy, and project-related freight.

These differences reinforce why shippers should not apply one national rate assumption to every mode, equipment category, region, or lane.

Capacity Remains the Primary Rate Driver

Available capacity remains the most important driver behind the current freight-rate trend.

Driver availability is exceptionally tight, for-hire capacity continues to contract, and elevated equipment, insurance, financing, maintenance, and labor costs are limiting the supply response. Compliance enforcement and driver-qualification requirements are also making it more difficult for marginal capacity to remain in or reenter the market.

For shippers, transportation costs and service constraints may intensify before shipment volumes provide an obvious warning. Routing-guide resilience, carrier redundancy, procurement timing, and modal flexibility are becoming increasingly important.

Transportation teams should:

• Reassess cost-to-serve by lane and mode
• Update labor, insurance, equipment, fuel, financing, and accessorial assumptions
• Review whether higher truckload rates improve the competitiveness of intermodal alternatives
• Rebuild primary and backup carrier coverage
• Identify lanes where slowly adjusting contract pricing may create budget exposure
• Monitor tender acceptance and rejected-load activity
• Evaluate exposure to equipment- or region-specific capacity constraints

What Freight-Rate Data Should Shippers Use in Contract Negotiations?

Shippers should combine internal shipment history, existing contract costs, current market benchmarks, carrier-service performance, capacity indicators, operating-cost data, and forward-looking freight forecasts.

No single freight rate, index, or national average provides enough information to establish a defensible contract position.

The appropriate negotiation position should reflect both broad market conditions and the shipper’s specific transportation network. National market data can indicate overall direction, while lane-level data helps evaluate individual carrier proposals and network exposure.

Freight-Rate Benchmarks and Forecasts Answer Different Questions

Freight-rate benchmarks and freight-rate forecasts both support contract negotiations, but they serve different purposes.

What Freight-Rate Benchmarks Tell Shippers

A freight-rate benchmark helps a shipper understand where the market is today or where it has recently been.

Depending on the source and level of detail, benchmarks can help answer:

• How does our current pricing compare with available market data?
• Are proposed rates directionally consistent with current conditions?
• Which lanes or equipment types require closer review?
• Has the market moved materially since our last bid?
• Where should we prioritize carrier discussions or targeted bids?

Benchmarks provide an important negotiating reference point, but they do not necessarily show where rates will be during the proposed contract period.

What Freight-Rate Forecasts Tell Shippers

A freight-rate forecast provides a forward-looking view of rates, volumes, capacity, and freight-market direction.

Forecasts can help answer:

• Are spot or contract rates expected to rise or decline?
• Could tightening capacity give carriers additional pricing leverage?
• Is current spot-market pressure likely to move into contract pricing?
• Should we negotiate now, delay a bid, or use a shorter contract term?
• How much rate or capacity risk should be included in the transportation budget?
• What conditions could require the agreement to be reviewed later?

Neither source should be used alone.

A benchmark establishes the current market reference point. A forecast helps determine whether that reference point is likely to remain valid over the life of the contract.

Shippers should combine both with their own lane-level pricing, shipment history, carrier performance, and service requirements.

Why Capacity Data Belongs in a Freight-Rate Negotiation

Freight demand is only one side of the rate equation. The other side is the amount of carrier capacity available to move that freight.

Rates can rise even when freight volumes are not growing rapidly if available capacity is contracting faster than demand. Carrier exits, driver availability, equipment costs, regulatory changes, and limited fleet investment can reduce the market’s ability to respond to shipper needs.

Transportation teams should evaluate capacity indicators alongside rate and volume data. Relevant indicators include:

• Carrier additions and exits
• Driver availability
• Class 8 tractor population and replacement trends
• Fleet utilization
• Equipment orders and production
• Load-to-truck ratios
• Tender acceptance
• Rejected-load activity
• Carrier operating costs
• Carrier financial conditions
• Regulatory changes affecting available drivers or equipment

Capacity data matters because the risk is not limited to price. Tightening conditions can affect tender acceptance, routing-guide performance, equipment availability, service reliability, and the cost of securing backup capacity.

A low contract rate provides little value if the carrier cannot consistently accept and service the freight.

Class 8 tractor data is especially useful for evaluating the broader capacity outlook. Tractor production, fleet replacement, equipment age, and carrier investment can help indicate whether future capacity is likely to expand, contract, or remain constrained.

These signals do not determine the appropriate rate for an individual lane. Instead, they provide context for the lane-level negotiation.

ACT Research connects freight-rate and volume indicators with commercial vehicle, carrier, economic, and capacity signals. This provides a more complete view of freight-market direction than shipment demand or current rate benchmarks can provide by themselves.

How Shippers Can Turn Freight Data into a Negotiation Strategy

Collecting freight data is only the first step. Its value comes from translating the information into specific contract, carrier, and network decisions.

Establish a Negotiation Range

Rather than entering a negotiation with one target rate, shippers should establish:

• A preferred target
• An acceptable market range
• A level requiring additional justification
• A threshold that triggers a rebid, modal review, or alternative carrier discussion

The range should reflect internal shipment history, current market benchmarks, expected operating costs, service requirements, and anticipated freight-market direction.

Segment the Transportation Network

A single market assumption should not be applied equally to every lane.

Shippers should distinguish between:

• Core and irregular lanes
• High-volume and low-volume freight
• Balanced and imbalanced markets
• Dry van, refrigerated, flatbed, LTL, and intermodal movements
• Stable lanes and capacity-constrained markets
• Standard freight and specialized service requirements
• Price-sensitive freight and service-critical freight

This segmentation helps transportation teams identify where consistent volume, operating flexibility, or multiple carrier options create negotiating leverage. It also identifies lanes where securing dependable capacity may be more important than obtaining the lowest initial rate.

Select the Appropriate Contract Structure

Market conditions should inform the length and structure of the agreement.

Possible approaches include:

• Annual contracts for stable, predictable freight
• Shorter agreements when market direction is uncertain
• Targeted mini-bids for lanes where pricing has moved materially
• Scheduled market reviews for longer agreements
• Indexed or adjustable pricing provisions
• Reopening clauses tied to defined market conditions
• A mix of contract and spot exposure based on lane characteristics

No contract length or procurement model is appropriate for every lane. The right structure depends on network needs, volume predictability, service requirements, expected market conditions, and tolerance for risk.

Balance Rate and Service Performance

The lowest quoted rate does not always produce the lowest total transportation cost.

Carrier proposals should be evaluated alongside:

• Tender acceptance
• On-time pickup and delivery
• Claims history
• Equipment availability
• Routing-guide compliance
• Communication and issue resolution
• Accessorial charges
• Spot-market exposure caused by rejected freight
• Availability of backup capacity

A carrier offering a slightly higher rate may create greater value if it consistently accepts freight, protects service, and reduces emergency spot-market purchases.

Prepare for Multiple Market Outcomes

Freight forecasts are not guarantees. They should be used to build and test several reasonable scenarios.

Transportation teams should consider:

• What happens if rates increase faster than expected?
• What happens if capacity tightens while freight demand remains uneven?
• What happens if rates remain stable?
• What happens if demand weakens and carriers become more aggressive?
• Which lanes create the greatest budget or service exposure in each scenario?

Scenario planning helps determine where the shipper needs fixed pricing, greater flexibility, backup capacity, shorter contract terms, or review provisions.

Freight Contract-Negotiation Checklist

Before beginning a carrier negotiation or transportation bid, shippers should confirm that they can answer the following questions.

Internal Freight Profile

• Are lane volumes, shipment frequencies, and seasonal assumptions current?
• Have meaningful changes from the previous contract period been identified?
• Are equipment, handling, appointment, and service requirements clearly defined?
• Which lanes are core, irregular, seasonal, or service-critical?

Current Contract and Cost

• Have base rates, fuel surcharges, accessorials, and other charges been separated?
• Are carrier proposals being compared using the same assumptions?
• Is the actual all-in cost understood by carrier, lane, and mode?
• Are current rates being applied and invoiced correctly?

Market Conditions

• What are current spot and contract rates indicating?
• Is the spot-to-contract spread expanding or narrowing?
• Are freight volumes strengthening, weakening, or remaining stable?
• Is available capacity expanding or contracting?
• Do conditions differ materially by lane, region, mode, or equipment type?

Forward Outlook

• Where are rates, volumes, and capacity expected to move during the proposed contract?
• What assumptions are being made about freight demand?
• Could equipment, labor, regulatory, or carrier-cost pressures change the market?
• Which assumptions create the greatest budget or service risk?
• What conditions would require the agreement to be revisited?

Carrier Performance and Risk

• How consistently does each carrier accept tendered freight?
• Which carriers create the greatest rejected-load or spot-market exposure?
• Are service failures concentrated in particular lanes or periods?
• Does the carrier have the equipment and financial capacity to support its commitment?
• Is reliable backup coverage available for critical lanes?

Contract Strategy

• Is the proposed contract length appropriate for current and expected conditions?
• Should certain lanes use shorter agreements or targeted mini-bids?
• Are review, escalation, indexing, or reopening provisions necessary?
• Are volume commitments realistic?
• Does the proposal balance price, capacity assurance, and service performance?
• How will actual cost and carrier performance be measured after the contract is awarded?

A disciplined negotiation process should produce more than a lower quoted rate. It should help the shipper establish realistic transportation costs, secure appropriate capacity, protect service, and prepare for market conditions that may change during the contract period.

Frequently Asked Questions About Freight Rates

What Freight-Rate Data Is Most Important During Contract Negotiations?

Shippers should use internal lane and shipment history, current market benchmarks, spot and contract trends, carrier performance, capacity indicators, operating-cost data, and forward-looking forecasts.

Each source answers a different question. Together, they provide a more complete basis for evaluating proposed rates and contract terms.

Can Shippers Use Spot Rates to Negotiate Contract Rates?

Spot rates can indicate changing market balance, but they should not be treated as a direct replacement for contract rates.

Contract pricing also reflects expected volume, lane characteristics, equipment requirements, service commitments, and the amount of capacity a carrier is expected to provide.

What Is the Difference Between a Freight-Rate Benchmark and a Forecast?

A freight-rate benchmark measures current or historical market pricing. A freight-rate forecast estimates where rates, volumes, or capacity conditions may move during a future planning period.

Benchmarks help evaluate today’s market. Forecasts help assess whether those conditions are likely to persist throughout the proposed contract.

How Does Available Capacity Affect Contract Rates?

When available carrier capacity becomes tighter relative to freight demand, carriers generally gain pricing leverage and service risk can increase.

When capacity is abundant, shippers generally have more carrier options and greater negotiating leverage.

Should Shippers Use National or Lane-Level Freight-Rate Data?

Both can be useful, but they serve different purposes.

Broad market indices indicate overall rate and capacity direction. Lane-level data helps evaluate specific carrier proposals, operating requirements, and network exposure.

How Far Ahead Should Shippers Forecast Freight Rates?

The forecast horizon should cover the transportation budget and proposed contract term.

Near-term indicators support current negotiations. Longer-range forecasts support decisions about contract duration, budget assumptions, capacity strategy, and market risk.

How Often Should Shippers Review Freight-Market Conditions?

Transportation teams should monitor important rate, volume, capacity, and carrier-performance indicators throughout the contract period—not only during the annual bid.

More frequent reviews may be appropriate when spot and contract markets are moving rapidly, tender acceptance is deteriorating, or capacity conditions are changing.

Plan Freight Negotiations with a Clearer View of What Comes Next

ACT Research’s Freight Forecast: Rate & Volume Outlook helps shippers understand rate direction, volume trends, capacity conditions, and freight-cycle timing across truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal markets.

ACT combines freight-market data, economic analysis, commercial vehicle intelligence, forecasting methodology, partner data, and analyst interpretation to provide a connected view of where freight markets may be headed.

Use ACT’s forward-looking freight intelligence alongside your internal and lane-level data to build more defensible transportation budgets, procurement strategies, and contract assumptions.

What are current freight rates?

As of April 2024, dry van spot rates are $1.53 per mile; DAT reefer spot rates are $1.83 per mile; and flatbed spot rates are $1.98 per mile. For further breakdown and analysis of current freight rates, check out ACT’s Freight Trucking Rates data tracker, updated monthly.

Freight rates have the power to make or break balance sheets, but what goes up must come down, and the rise and fall of freight rates is cyclical.

In the classic truckload cycle, there are four general phases, and freight rates are impacted based on which phase we’re in.

• Early phase: Rates rise

• Mid-phase: Rates plateau

• Late phase: Rates fall

• Bottom phase: Rates continue to fall, but more slowly

Rinse and repeat.

To see how freight rates are likely to change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT’s freight & transportation forecast.