Used Truck Price Forecast

Make Smarter Acquisition, Resale, and Inventory Decisions — in Any Market Cycle

Used truck pricing moves fast and is shaped by an evolving mix of:

• Freight demand and fleet profitability

• Trade cycles and replacement behavior

• New truck availability and production levels

• Auction, wholesale, and retail channel dynamics

• Regulatory and emissions changes

• Equipment age mix, mileage profiles, and spec differences

• Credit conditions and financing costs

These factors create volatility, unpredictability, and risk for anyone managing used truck inventories or setting future values.

The ACT Used Truck Price Forecast provides the independent, data-driven visibility you need to stay ahead of market cycles — and make confident, profitable decisions.

Used Truck Prices Are Cyclical and Fast-Moving

1. Used values change direction before other market indicators.

Used equipment often signals cycle inflection points earlier than new truck orders or freight indexes — and missing those signals can mean margin loss or inventory exposure.

2. Internal pricing models struggle with volatility.

Rapid price swings, supply imbalances, and inconsistent mileage mixes can make historical trendlines unreliable.

3. Fleets’ replacement behavior shifts quickly.

Trade activity fluctuates with profitability, fuel costs, interest rates, and regulatory timing — impacting both supply and demand in the used market.

4. Channel dynamics matter — a lot.

Retail, wholesale, and auction channels follow different cycles, pricing patterns, and sensitivities. You need to understand them all.

5. Executives and stakeholders need defensible, third-party insight.

Whether planning resale, setting trade values, or allocating capital, organizations need validated intelligence that stands up to scrutiny.

That’s where ACT comes in.

The ACT Used Truck Price Forecast

The Used Truck Price Outlook is updated quarterly and is based on more than one million used vehicle transactions collected by ACT Research from OEM remarketers, fleets, dealers, rental and leasing firms, and capital finance firms.

The Updated Used Truck Price Outlook is a quarterly, forward-looking forecast of used Class 8 tractor prices and sales volumes, enhanced to include six model-level price forecasts.

Unlike backward-looking market reports or generic averages, this product delivers:

• Granular visibility into how specific truck models are expected to perform
• Forward pricing intelligence, not just market commentary
• Actionable planning insight for asset acquisition, disposition, and risk exposure

What’s new and differentiated?

• Model-level price forecasts (not just aggregate Class 8 averages)
• Quarterly forecast horizon aligned with capital planning cycles
• Integrated price and volume outlook to signal liquidity and timing risk
• Built on ACT’s proprietary data, market relationships, and forecasting methodology

A comprehensive, independent view of future used truck values across the key channels, vehicle classes, and truck models.

The forecast delivers clear, actionable guidance covering:

✔ Class 8 Used Truck Price Forecasts

Including:

• Retail prices

• Auction pricing

• Wholesale values

• Depreciation trends

• Mileage and age cohort performance

• Model-level forecasts include:

  • Kenworth T680

  • Peterbilt 579

  • Freightliner Cascadia

  • Mack Anthem

  • Volvo 860

  • International LT

• Expected value trajectories broken down monthly, quarterly, and annually over a five-year horizon

✔ Supply & Demand Modeling

The forecast incorporates:

• Fleet trade cycles

• New truck production & sales

• Carrier health & profitability signals

• Small fleet formation/exits

• Industry employment & freight trends
  

✔ Channel-Specific Dynamics

ACT analyzes how prices differ and evolve across:

• Retail

• Auction

Each channel responds differently to shifts in inventory, freight conditions, and vehicle mix — ACT’s forecast reflects these distinctions.

✔ Residual Value & Depreciation Outlook

Long-term depreciation curves help lenders, leasing firms, and fleets understand expected value retention by age, spec, and segment.

✔ Economic & Freight Environment Integration

The used truck market is inseparable from freight and macro performance.
ACT’s monthly economic and freight analysis adds necessary context, without requiring a separate subscription.

✔ Scenario Analysis

Understand how alternative economic, regulatory, or supply-related paths may impact used values over time.

Breaking down the used Class 8 Tractor segments

Third-Party Validation You Can Trust

Independent, Unbiased Forecasting

No OEM, auction partner, or political influence — just objective, data-driven modeling.

Deep Market Expertise

ACT has tracked used truck values for decades and maintains the industry’s most complete view of historical used values.

Trusted Across the Ecosystem

Used by OEMs, dealers, leasing companies, fleets, financial institutions, and investors.

Clarity That Drives Better Decisions

ACT translates complex factors into understandable, actionable forecasting — making your internal planning stronger and more defensible.

What You Receive Each Quarter

1. Executive Summary

A clear, concise narrative of current market conditions and forward expectations.

2. Forecast Tables

Multi-year used price forecasts for:

• Class 8 retail and auction

• Price, depreciation, and value curves

• Cohorts by age, mileage, sales channel, and models

3. Market Drivers & Trend Analysis

Insight into the factors shaping supply, demand, and price performance — including macroeconomic and freight indicators.

4. Channel Deep Dives

Retailand auction analysis with commentary on inventory, pricing patterns, and cycle momentum.

5. Appendices & Supporting Tables

Detailed data supporting the forecast narrative.

ACT Research’s Used Truck Price Outlook puts the power of accurate forecasting in your hands.

Who Uses the ACT Used Truck Price Forecast — and Why

Dealers & Retail Networks

• Price inventory accurately

• Avoid margin loss during downturns

• Identify acquisition opportunities

• Plan turnover and stocking strategies

Leasing & Rental Companies

• Set residual values & buyback terms

• Optimize replacement cycles

• Manage portfolio risk

Fleets (Private & For-Hire)

• Determine optimal disposal timing

• Evaluate purchase vs. lease options

• Manage capex with future value visibility

Financial Institutions & Investors

• Lending risk assessment

• Residual value modeling

• Equipment-backed asset valuation

OEMs & Remarketing Teams

• Benchmark against retail & auction channels

• Understand fleet trade behavior

• Support dealer networks with market clarity

Trusted by some of the industries best fleets.