Used Truck Price Forecast

Plan used truck decisions with a clearer view of future values.

Used truck values can change quickly, and those changes are shaped by several connected market signals:

• Freight demand and fleet profitability
• Trade cycles and replacement behavior
• New truck availability and production levels
• Retail, wholesale, and auction channel dynamics
• Regulatory and emissions timing
• Equipment age, mileage, model, and specification mix
• Credit conditions and financing costs

These factors affect inventory strategy, residual assumptions, remarketing outcomes, collateral exposure, and acquisition timing.

ACT’s Used Truck Price Forecast helps customers understand how used truck values may move across the cycle so they can build more defensible plans around asset value, timing, and risk.

Used truck values are cyclical, fast-moving, and decision-sensitive.

Used truck values are not just a secondary market indicator. They are a signal of freight conditions, fleet profitability, replacement timing, and asset risk. ACT helps customers interpret those signals before they affect planning decisions.

1. Used values can signal cycle changes early.

2. Internal pricing models can struggle in volatile markets.

Rapid price swings, inventory changes, inconsistent mileage mixes, and model-level differences can make historical averages less useful on their own.

3. Replacement behavior can change quickly.

Fleet trade activity changes with profitability, fuel costs, interest rates, new truck availability, regulatory timing, and confidence in future demand.

4. Channel dynamics matter.

Retail, wholesale, and auction channels follow different pricing patterns and respond differently to shifts in inventory, demand, age, mileage, and model mix.

5. Stakeholders need defensible external perspective.

Whether your team is setting residuals, planning resale, evaluating collateral values, or acquiring inventory, an independent market view can help validate assumptions and support better decisions.

That is where ACT’s Used Truck Price Forecast can help.

What you get with ACT’s Used Truck Price Forecast

ACT’s Used Truck Price Forecast is updated quarterly and built from more than one million used vehicle transactions collected from OEM remarketers, fleets, dealers, rental and leasing firms, and capital finance firms.

The forecast provides a forward-looking view of used Class 8 tractor prices and sales volumes, including model-level price forecasts for key sleeper tractor models.

Unlike backward-looking market summaries or broad averages, ACT’s forecast helps customers evaluate how used values may change by channel, age, mileage, and model — and what those changes may mean for asset acquisition, disposition, residual risk, and collateral exposure.

What makes the forecast different?

• Model-level price forecasts, not only aggregate Class 8 averages
• Quarterly forecast updates aligned with asset, residual, and capital planning cycles
• Integrated price and volume outlook to help assess liquidity and timing risk
• Channel, age, mileage, and model-level views of the used Class 8 tractor market
• Built on ACT’s proprietary transaction data, market relationships, forecasting methodology, and analyst interpretation

The result is an independent, forward-looking view of used truck values across key channels, vehicle classes, and model segments.

What the forecast covers

✔ Class 8 Used Truck Price Forecasts

Including:

• Retail prices

• Auction pricing

• Wholesale values

• Depreciation trends

• Mileage and age cohort performance

• Model-level forecasts include:

  • Kenworth T680

  • Peterbilt 579

  • Freightliner Cascadia

  • Mack Anthem

  • Volvo 860

  • International LT

• Expected value trajectories broken down monthly, quarterly, and annually over a five-year horizon

✔ Supply & Demand Modeling

The forecast incorporates market signals such as:

• Fleet trade cycles
• New truck production and sales
• Carrier financial health and profitability
• Small fleet formation and exits
• Industry employment trends
• Freight rate and volume conditions
• Inventory and transaction activity

✔ Channel-Specific Dynamics

ACT analyzes how used truck prices differ and evolve across:

• Retail
• Auction
• Wholesale

Each channel responds differently to shifts in inventory, freight conditions, vehicle mix, age, mileage, and buyer behavior. ACT’s forecast reflects these distinctions.

✔ Residual Value & Depreciation Outlook

Long-term depreciation curves help lenders, leasing firms, fleets, dealers, and finance teams understand expected value retention by age, mileage, channel, model, and segment.

✔ Economic & Freight Environment Integration

The used truck market is closely tied to freight conditions, carrier profitability, interest rates, new truck availability, and broader macroeconomic performance.

ACT’s economic and freight analysis provides context for how these signals may affect used values over time.

✔ Scenario Analysis

Evaluate how alternative economic, regulatory, freight, or supply-related paths may affect used truck values, depreciation curves, and residual-risk assumptions over time.

Breaking down the used Class 8 Tractor segments

Used truck values vary by age, mileage, model, channel, and vehicle specification. ACT’s segment-level approach helps customers understand where values are changing and which parts of the market may carry more risk or opportunity.

An independent view of future used truck values

Independent, data-informed forecasting

ACT provides an independent market view built on transaction data, forecasting methodology, market relationships, and analyst interpretation.

Deep used truck market expertise

ACT has tracked used truck values for decades and maintains a detailed historical view of used equipment values, transactions, and market-cycle behavior.

Used across the transportation ecosystem

ACT’s used truck intelligence is used by OEMs, dealers, rental and leasing firms, fleets, financial institutions, investors, and remarketing teams.

Clarity for planning and risk decisions

ACT translates used truck pricing, inventory, freight, economic, and equipment-cycle signals into intelligence that helps support residual value, remarketing, acquisition, collateral, and portfolio decisions.

What You Receive Each Quarter

Each quarterly forecast provides a structured view of used truck prices, sales volumes, market drivers, and planning implications.

1. Executive Summary

A concise narrative overview of current used truck market conditions and forward expectations.

2. Forecast Tables

Multi-year used price forecasts for:

• Class 8 retail and auction

• Price, depreciation, and value curves

• Cohorts by age, mileage, sales channel, and models

3. Market Drivers & Trend Analysis

Analysis of the factors shaping supply, demand, pricing, inventory, and value performance, including macroeconomic and freight indicators.

4. Channel Deep Dives

Retail, wholesale, and auction analysis with commentary on inventory, pricing patterns, buyer behavior, and cycle momentum.

5. Appendices & Supporting Tables

Detailed data supporting the forecast narrative, including tables and supporting market context.

ACT’s Used Truck Price Forecast helps customers bring a clearer, forward-looking view of used values into planning, risk, and asset decisions.

Who uses the Used Truck Price Forecast — and how it supports planning

Dealers & Retail Networks

• Price inventory with stronger market context
• Evaluate acquisition and resale opportunities
• Manage margin risk during cycle changes
• Plan turnover and stocking strategy
• Support customer conversations about trade timing and used values

Leasing & Rental Companies

• Set residual value assumptions
• Evaluate buyback and lease terms
• Optimize replacement timing
• Monitor portfolio exposure
• Support remarketing and redeployment strategy

Fleets (Private & For-Hire)

• Determine disposal timing
  
• Evaluate purchase, lease, or hold decisions
  
• Manage capital planning with future value visibility
  
• Understand trade-cycle timing
  
• Assess residual implications of replacement strategy

Financial Institutions & Investors

• Assess lending and collateral risk
• Support residual value modeling
• Evaluate equipment-backed asset values
• Monitor transportation-sector health
• Build investment or credit assumptions with used value context

OEMs & Remarketing Teams

• Benchmark against retail, wholesale, and auction channels
• Understand fleet trade behavior
• Support dealer networks with market context
• Evaluate used value implications for new equipment demand
• Monitor inventory and resale conditions

Trusted by leading fleets and transportation market participants.