Build inventory and asset strategy around a clearer market view.

Dealers, rental, and leasing firms operate at the intersection of new equipment demand, used equipment values, customer replacement timing, fleet utilization, and residual-risk exposure.

ACT helps your team connect commercial vehicle demand, freight conditions, used truck values, trailer trends, and broader economic signals into a forward-looking market view that supports smarter inventory, pricing, remarketing, leasing, and portfolio decisions.

• Inventory & Demand Planning: Track production, orders, retail sales, inventory, and segment-level demand signals to support better stock and sales planning.
• Used Value & Residual Risk: Monitor used truck pricing, resale trends, and replacement-cycle signals that may affect trade values, lease assumptions, and remarketing outcomes.
• Fleet & Portfolio Strategy: Connect freight conditions, equipment demand, utilization, and economic indicators to asset planning, rental strategy, and portfolio risk management.

Market intelligence for inventory, asset, and portfolio decisions

ACT Research helps dealers, rental, and leasing firms evaluate the market signals that influence inventory levels, customer demand, used values, residual risk, trade timing, and asset performance across commercial vehicle and trailer markets.

• Inventory Trends & Market Demand: Track production cycles, orders, backlog, retail sales, inventory levels, and segment demand to support stock planning and customer conversations.
• Used Vehicle Pricing & Sales Data: Monitor used truck values, sales activity, inventory, age, and mileage trends to support pricing, acquisition, trade, and remarketing decisions.
• Freight & Economic Context: Connect freight conditions, fleet profitability, equipment demand, and economic activity to leasing, rental, and dealer market strategy.
• Residual-Risk Signals: Understand how used values, replacement cycles, customer demand, and market timing may affect residual assumptions and portfolio exposure.

Who uses ACT dealer, rental, and leasing intelligence?

ACT supports teams that need a clearer view of equipment demand, used values, inventory conditions, customer behavior, and asset risk.

• Commercial Vehicle Dealers: Align inventory, sales strategy, customer conversations, and trade timing with current and future market conditions.
• Rental and Leasing Firms: Evaluate utilization, fleet mix, residual exposure, replacement timing, and asset strategy with stronger market context.
• Remarketing Teams: Track used values, transaction activity, inventory, and customer demand to support resale and redeployment decisions.
• Finance and Risk Teams: Use market-cycle intelligence to assess collateral values, lease assumptions, and portfolio exposure.
• Fleet and Procurement Teams: Monitor used values, equipment availability, and replacement-cycle timing for better acquisition and disposal decisions.

Updated August 28, 2026

Market Update - Dealers & Leasing

August 2026 Update

In a Supply-Constrained Market, Asset Providers Shift Toward Flexibility and Cost Management

August brings a firmer but still disciplined environment for dealers, rental operators, and leasing providers. ACT’s latest reporting shows North American Class 8 orders increased 71% year over year in July, with tractor orders rising 103%. Stronger freight rates, constrained capacity, improving carrier profitability, replacement needs, and EPA 2027 planning continue to support fleet interest.

Orders declined 29% sequentially on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the decrease primarily reflected limited remaining 2026 build availability rather than a sudden weakening in equipment demand. ACT estimates that demand for the remaining production slots exceeds available capacity.

For asset providers, the signal is not broad expansion. It is a more constructive replacement market in which customers remain focused on cost, flexibility, uptime, and operating risk. Equipment prices, financing costs, insurance expenses, maintenance requirements, and regulatory uncertainty continue to influence purchasing decisions. Lease flexibility, uptime support, and trade-cycle planning are therefore becoming more valuable parts of the customer conversation.

Fleets Are Delaying Expansion, but Replacement Demand Is Strengthening

Broad fleet expansion remains measured, but the replacement environment is becoming more constructive. Dry van, reefer, and flatbed spot rates, excluding fuel, were 41% to 47% higher year over year in July, while aggregate contract rates increased 17%.

Driver availability has shown signs of stabilizing as higher pay attracts drivers, and tractor sales are moving above estimated replacement requirements. Even so, the Class 8 tractor fleet remains smaller than a year ago, available equipment remains tight, and regulatory enforcement continues to restrict the supply response.

These conditions are improving fleet confidence, but they do not eliminate the need for capital discipline. Customers are more likely to prioritize equipment that addresses aging assets, maintenance exposure, fuel efficiency, regulatory readiness, and operating reliability.

For dealers, rental companies, and leasing providers, this supports a healthier sales pipeline without necessarily creating an indiscriminate buying cycle. Leasing and rental structures may be especially attractive to fleets that need newer equipment, bridge capacity, or regulatory flexibility but remain reluctant to assume full ownership, financing, and residual-value exposure.

Used-truck conditions should remain part of these discussions. July same-dealer Class 8 retail sales declined 2.5% sequentially but increased 45% year over year. Average retail prices fell 4% during the month to $60,986 and were 2% below year-ago levels.

Strong transaction activity alongside softer pricing indicates that replacement and trade activity are improving without producing uniform value appreciation. Elevated exports are also removing used tractors from the domestic market. Asset managers should distinguish between improving equipment turnover and a broad, sustained increase in used-equipment values.

Leasing and Sales Strategies Must Reflect a Risk-Managed Mindset

Fleet buyers are balancing replacement requirements against cost volatility, regulatory timing, equipment availability, and uneven freight demand. This creates an opportunity for asset providers that can align equipment solutions with customer cash flow, operating needs, and risk tolerance.

That may include:

· Structuring lease terms with renewal, purchase, conversion, or upgrade options
· Bundling maintenance, uptime, and telematics support where appropriate
· Incorporating EPA 2027 engine strategies and fuel-efficiency considerations into longer-term agreements
· Providing structured trade-in pathways for aging or maintenance-intensive assets
· Matching payment structures and equipment commitments to customer utilization expectations

Demand is likely to be strongest where the replacement rationale is clearest. Tractor sales increased 8.2% year over year in July and moved above estimated replacement demand for the second consecutive month. Day cabs and regional tractors may benefit from tighter freight capacity, changing network requirements, and improving LTL conditions.

Vocational equipment continues to receive support from infrastructure, utility, energy, commodity, construction, and data-center-related investment. July vocational Class 8 orders increased 18% year over year. However, elevated vocational inventories require careful differentiation between end-user demand and available dealer stock.

Long-haul tractor interest is also improving, but elevated total cost of ownership and uneven broader freight demand continue to limit expansion behavior. Asset providers should evaluate customer profitability, fleet age, utilization, trade position, and financing capacity before assuming that stronger order activity will translate into fleet growth.

Inventory Management Is Critical

Inventory and asset strategy remain central in a market where demand is improving but still uneven. Class 8 backlogs ended July at 182,817 units, equal to approximately 8.9 months of production on a seasonally adjusted basis and well above the historical average.

Third- and fourth-quarter build plans moved modestly lower as manufacturers assessed how quickly production could ramp. For dealers, lessors, and rental operators, elevated backlogs improve forward visibility but do not guarantee evenly distributed customer demand or delivery timing.

Class 8 inventories ended July at approximately 83,100 units. Tractor inventories are comparatively healthy following production reductions in 2024 and 2025. Vocational inventories remain significantly above historical norms, creating greater pricing, aging, and carrying-cost risk in those applications.

Medium-duty inventories also remain elevated. ACT raised its 2026 Classes 5–7 production forecast materially even as existing stocks remained high. Asset providers should monitor retail conversion, inventory-to-sales ratios, body-builder throughput, and application-specific demand before expanding commitments.

Trailer conditions have become more constructive. July net orders increased 16% sequentially and 94% year over year, while backlogs were more than 13% above year-ago levels. The backlog-to-build ratio reached five months but remained below its long-term average, and cancellations improved to 0.7% of backlog.

For trailer asset providers, replacement requirements, fleet age, maintenance exposure, and stronger freight economics support demand. Equipment pricing, tariffs, materials costs, financing conditions, and segment-level demand still require close attention.

Relative strength should be monitored in:

· Day cabs and regional tractors
· Sleeper tractors with clear replacement and utilization support
· Dry vans serving tightening truckload networks
· Refrigerated equipment where fleet age and specialized-capacity constraints support replacement
· Vocational units tied to utilities, infrastructure, energy, commodities, construction, and data-center investment
· Flatbeds and specialized trailers serving project-related freight

Vocational units held in elevated dealer inventories, weaker cyclical applications, and assets tied to less resilient freight segments may still require active pricing, targeted deployment, and disciplined rotation.

Inventory Discipline Remains Strategic

August reinforces that the commercial vehicle market is improving, but asset providers still need to manage exposure carefully. Stronger freight rates, constrained capacity, improving carrier profitability, and replacement requirements are supporting customer engagement. At the same time, financing costs, equipment prices, operating expenses, and uncertainty surrounding EPA 2027 continue to shape purchasing behavior.

The EPA’s proposed rule retains the underlying low-NOx technology requirements while introducing nonconformance penalties and potentially extending warranty and useful-life requirements to 2030. The structure could produce a more staggered transition, making equipment flexibility and manufacturer-specific product strategies increasingly important.

Key focus areas include:

· Aligning inventory and asset allocation with confirmed customer demand
· Separating replacement activity from actual fleet expansion
· Limiting idle exposure in weaker applications or regions
· Managing elevated vocational and medium-duty inventories
· Building compliance and equipment flexibility into customer agreements
· Incorporating fuel efficiency, maintenance, utilization, and uptime into sales and leasing strategies
· Using used-equipment transactions, exports, and customer financial health to manage residual-value risk
· Monitoring order conversion, production timing, retail sales, and cancellations before expanding commitments

As replacement activity strengthens, asset providers that offer flexible, reliable, and cost-aware solutions will be better positioned to support customers while protecting utilization, margins, and residual values. The market is becoming more constructive, but the advantage will accrue to providers that respond selectively rather than treating stronger orders as evidence of broad-based expansion.

Market guidance for inventory, leasing, and asset decisions

ACT helps dealers, rental firms, and leasing providers understand the market signals that affect equipment demand, customer replacement timing, used values, residual risk, and portfolio performance.

Our intelligence supports teams responsible for sales, finance, inventory, leasing, rental, remarketing, risk management, and executive planning with a clearer view of freight conditions, commercial vehicle demand, production trends, used truck values, trailer markets, and regulatory timing.

With ACT Research, dealer, rental, and leasing teams can:

• Make stronger inventory decisions with current market analysis and forward-looking commercial vehicle forecasts.
• Evaluate residual and asset risk with better visibility into used truck values, replacement timing, and market-cycle movement.
• Connect freight conditions to customer demand by understanding how rates, fleet profitability, and capacity conditions may affect equipment purchasing behavior.
• Support remarketing and trade strategy with intelligence on used values, inventory, transaction activity, and resale timing.
• Spot risks and opportunities earlier across freight, economic, regulatory, equipment, and used-market signals.
• Support financial and executive planning with market assumptions your team can defend.