ACT Human Intelligence

To see the correlations and causations over time, to have thousands of hours of conversations with fleets, manufacturers, and investors, to be asked to speak at industry events, and to service customers for more than 35 years in this role gives us a unique and invaluable level of human intelligence.

So, when we say that we see the market in cycles, we've lived through those cycles.

The image below outlines the Classic Truckload Cycle and the indicators that help us understand what phase of the cycle we're in.

What distinguishes our team, our Human Intelligence, is knowing and calling out the "it's different this time" aspects of the cycle to support our customers and help them better understand the potential impacts of those differences.

We also challenge traditional market views because of our experience and perspective. For example, we view drivers as part of the equation for supply (a limiting factor in the number of Class 8 tractors a fleet can deploy is the number of drivers available), but we disagree with the commonly held notion of the perpetual driver shortage.

Why?

First, we believe that driver shortage severity is a sign of prosperity for truckers.

After all, the amount of freight determines driver demand (not the reverse), and freight is a result of economic activity. So, it's not a coincidence that periods of peak carrier profitability (which you now know we follow closely) have occurred during the tightest incidences of driver unavailability.

Second, fleet capacity cannot respond in real-time to inflections in freight activity. Because of the commodity-like nature of the business, the industry sheds capacity (gets rid of excess Class 8 tractors and drivers) during periods of soft freight demand.

When that inflection occurs, there is never enough capacity at the start of the cycle. Drivers begin to come online, even as the freight starts to slow, ultimately creating the next downturn in demand.

Through this and other examples, we see the market from a unique perspective, providing insight to our customers as they plan their strategy.

Through the combination of ACT Proprietary Data, Methodology, and Human Intelligence, we've put together actionable supply and demand insights for transportation professionals like you, giving you a single source for tactical and strategic insights for your business:

Monthly market coverage, insights, and updates across TL, LTL, and intermodal segments and forecasts, including:

• Class 8 Tractor Retail Sales
• Class 8 Tractor Population, U11
• Used Class 8 Tractor Exports
• TL Net Income Margin
• Illustrative Spot Operating Margin Forecast
• LTL Producer Price Index – Aggregate
• LTL Rate / CWT, Net Fuel
• LTL Tonnage
• Intek Intermodal Spot Rate / Mile
• Intermodal Rate / Load
• NA Class 1 Intermodal Loads (MM)
• Cass Market Data
  • Cass Freight Index – Shipments
  • Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
  • Cass Inferred Freight Rates
• DAT Market Data
  • DAT Contract Rate / Mile, Net Fuel
  • DAT Contract Rate / Mile, Incl Fuel
  • DAT Spot Rate / Mile, Net Fuel
  • DAT Spot Rate / Mile, Incl Fuel
  • DAT Dry Van Contract and Spot Rate / Mile, Net Fuel
  • DAT Reefer Contract and Spot Rate / Mile, Net Fuel
  • DAT Flatbed Contract and Spot Rate / Mile, Net Fuel
  • Aggregate TL Contract and Spot Rate / Mile, Net Fuel
  • DAT Dry Van Contract and Spot Rate / Mile, Incl Fuel
  • DAT Reefer Contract and Spot Rate / Mile, Incl Fuel
  • DAT Flatbed Contract and Spot Rate / Mile, Incl Fuel
  • Aggregate TL Contract and Spot Rate / Mile, Incl Fuel
  • DAT Postings: LOADS
  • DAT Postings: EQUIPMENT
    

US Economic activity measurement, changes, and forecasts, including:

• ACT Freight Composite Index
• Real GDP
• Personal Consumption
• Nonresidential/ Residential Fixed Investment
• Government Purchases
• Exports
• Net Exports as % of GDP
• Consumer Price Index
• Unemployment
• Oil Price Assumption