Plan Ahead With Confidence in a Market Defined by Change

The commercial vehicle engine market is evolving faster than ever.

Powertrain choices, emissions requirements, platform updates, OEM strategies, and supply-chain constraints can all shift rapidly — creating uncertainty for planning, production, sourcing, and capital investment.

The ACT North America Engine Forecast gives you the clarity and forward visibility you need to navigate these changes with confidence. Whether you supply components, plan production, manage inventory, analyze risk, or invest in the commercial vehicle market, the Engine Forecast delivers an independent, data-backed foundation for better decisions.

Engine Markets Are Complex, Cyclical, and Highly Sensitive to External Forces

1. Emissions regulations drive dramatic demand shifts.

Future emissions standards reshape engine mix, pre-buy behavior, and fleet replacement timing. Knowing when and how those shifts unfold is critical.

2. OEM strategy changes can alter market share abruptly.

Platform redesigns, powertrain transitions, and spec changes create ripple effects across the supply chain.

3. Production cycles are tied to freight and economic conditions.

Engine demand follows — and sometimes leads — cycles in truck builds, freight activity, and fleet profitability.

4. Internal models often lack external validation.

Engineering, sales, procurement, and strategy teams need a third-party forecast they can align around.

5. Long lead times demand long-range visibility.

Engine programs, tooling investments, capacity decisions, and supply planning all require multi-year foresight.

ACT helps you overcome these challenges with unbiased, data-driven forecasting you can rely on.

The ACT Commercial Vehicle Engine Forecast

Your comprehensive, independently developed forecast of medium- and heavy-duty engine demand, production, and market share.

Updated quarterly, the Engine Forecast provides:

✔ Engine Demand Forecasts (Class 5–7 & Class 8)

Including projections for:

• Total engine demand by class and GVW segment

• Market share by OEM

• Market share by engine displacement category

• Vocational vs. tractor splits

• Forecast tables spanning quarterly and multi-year horizons

✔ Production Forecasts & Capacity Alignment

Understand how OEM build plans, backlog positions, and order activity shape near-term and long-term engine production.
(ACT’s CV Outlook shows how orders, builds, inventory ratios, and backlogs move together across cycles. )

✔ Regulatory & Emissions Impact Modeling

Emissions phases, regulatory timelines, and compliance costs shift engine demand and mix significantly.

ACT integrates:

• Regulatory pipeline tracking

• Pre-buy/post-buy demand effects

• Engine technology transitions

• Warranty, cost, and certification implications
  (Your CV Outlook includes in-depth regulatory appendices, indicating how ACT models policy-driven impacts. )

✔ Powertrain Mix Evolution

Insights into how market forces influence the adoption of:

• Diesel engines

• Alternative fuel engines (natural gas, etc.)

• Powertrain efficiency improvements

• Electrification influences on future internal combustion demand

✔ Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis

Engine demand is influenced by economic performance, input costs, regulatory timing, freight cycles, and OEM strategy.

ACT provides alternative scenarios so teams can plan with greater resilience and flexibility.

Why ACT: Your Trusted Third-Party Source for Forward Visibility

Independent, Unbiased Intelligence

No OEM or supplier influence — just transparent methodology and objective analysis.

Deep Industry Context

ACT integrates economic, freight, production, and regulatory insight across all CV forecasts, allowing engine outlooks to reflect the full ecosystem.

Clarity That Drives Internal Alignment

Engineering, procurement, sales, and executive teams all rely on ACT forecasts to align decisions and justify strategic action.

Trusted Across the Supply Chain

Used by:

• OEM powertrain teams

• Tier-1 & Tier-2 suppliers

• Component manufacturers

• Financial institutions

• Investors & market analysts

• Government & policy stakeholders

What You Receive With Each Quarterly Report

1. Executive Summary

Clear narrative of current conditions and expected demand shifts.

2. Engine Demand & Production Tables

Quarterly and multi-year outlooks with detailed segmentation.

3. OEM Market Share Forecasts

Forward-looking shifts based on platform updates, production changes, and regulatory implications.

4. Emissions & Regulatory Impact Analysis

Guidance on how major regulatory phases will affect the market.

5. Economic & Freight Backdrop

Context from ACT’s broader forecasting work (CV, freight, macro), which directly influences engine demand.

6. Appendices & Supporting Data

Methodology, inputs, and supplemental tables for deeper analysis.

Who This Forecast Helps — and How

OEMs & Powertrain Engineering Teams

• Align engine production strategy with expected demand

• Support long-range product planning & platform decisions

• Manage emissions compliance strategy

Tier-1 & Tier-2 Suppliers

• Forecast component demand (turbochargers, fuel systems, aftertreatment, castings, etc.)

• Align capacity, sourcing, and capex with future needs

Dealers & Distribution Networks

• Understand engine mix trends

• Prepare for service, parts, and warranty shifts

Financial Institutions & Investors

• Model asset values and risk exposure

• Understand how macro trends affect engine market performance

Policy & Industry Stakeholders

• Assess how regulatory phases influence technology adoption