Investors & Financiers

Looking to anticipate market direction or enrich your own investment models with reliable data? ACT Research empowers investors like you with exclusive, data-backed insights directly from the truck, tractor, and trailer manufacturing sectors. With our comprehensive market indicators and forecasting expertise, you'll gain a unique vantage point to make informed, strategic investment decisions in an ever-evolving commercial vehicle landscape.

• Economic & Freight Indicators: Market data on industry demand and economic conditions.
• Future-Ready Forecasting: Insights into Class 4-8 production, alternative powertrains, and clean tech trends.
• Market Health & Risk Analysis: Critical market indicators and competitive landscape to guide risk-adjusted returns.
• Comprehensive Regulatory Outlook: Stay ahead of emissions regulations and compliance shifts.

What It Offers: A Data-Driven Feature Set for Investors

ACT Research’s insights empower investors with the data needed to track, anticipate, and capitalize on trends across the commercial vehicle market. Our feature set equips you with visibility into production cycles, demand fluctuations, and emerging technologies, enabling informed investment choices.

• Market Trends & Sector Health: Quarterly and annual reports on demand cycles, production backlogs, and capital equipment investment indicators across Class 4-8 trucks, essential for gauging market stability and growth potential.
• Alternative Powertrain Forecasting: Detailed forecasts on battery-electric, hydrogen, and natural gas vehicles, identifying high-growth opportunities within clean technology and sustainability sectors.
• Economic & Freight Index Reports: Comprehensive analysis of economic indicators, freight trends, and freight rate movements, providing critical data to assess demand potential and revenue growth.
• Competitive Landscape & M&A Insights: Insightful overviews of OEMs and broader trends within the commercial vehicle ecosystem, supporting well-informed investment and acquisition strategies.

Who Benefits? A Broad Investor Audience Seeking Actionable Market Insights

Investors across sectors gain from ACT Research’s market intelligence, from capital finance and private equity firms to sustainability-focused funds. Our data provides a competitive edge, offering deep insights into the market’s current and future state.

• Capital Finance Companies: Strategically evaluating market demand cycles, production forecasts, and capital equipment trends to guide financing solutions and investments in transportation assets.
• Private Equity and Venture Capital Firms: Identifying growth areas and technology innovations, particularly in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption and alternative powertrains.
• Portfolio Managers and Financial Analysts: Leveraging production and freight movement insights to inform portfolio allocations and monitor performance.
• Sustainability-Focused Funds: Tracking adoption of clean technologies and infrastructure to align with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals.
• Hedge Funds and Institutional Investors: Capitalizing on industry cycles by anticipating shifts in fleet demand, regulatory impacts, and vehicle production trends.

Updated November 21, 2025

Investor Sentiment Turns Defensive as Freight Weakness Extends and Equipment Orders Lag

With freight fundamentals still soft and equipment investment slowing further, 2025 continues to shape up as a margin-management year rather than a growth cycle. Demand visibility remains limited heading into 2026, and while several policy catalysts could shift sentiment, the current landscape remains one of caution and selective positioning.

ACT Research’s November NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK and Freight Forecast show a market still weighed down by weak freight volumes, below-replacement Class 8 orders, and defensive fleet spending. Freight activity softened again in early November as pre-tariff payback continued, spot rates retraced October’s firmness, and carriers posted another quarter of recession-level profitability.

For investors, the signal is clear: performance through early 2026 will hinge on margin durability, working-capital discipline, and balance-sheet flexibility, not top-line growth or volume acceleration.

Key Takeaways for Investors

1. Class 8 Orders Remain Weak, Signaling Persistent Capital Caution

Class 8 orders remained soft in October—well below typical peak-season booking levels. Fleets have not responded to traditional year-end ordering cues, and orderboards for 2026 remain lighter than normal. OEMs continue to emphasize production discipline, aligning output with replacement-level demand and managing inventories down, particularly on the tractor side.

This softness reflects structural caution:

• Carrier margins remain recession-like.

• New 232 heavy-vehicle tariffs continue to raise equipment costs.

• EPA 2027 remains unresolved, suppressing multi-unit commitments.

Supplier sentiment mirrors OEM caution, with quoting activity slower, sales cycles longer, and order pipelines thinner.

For investors, this implies continued revenue headwinds for OEMs into early 2026—but with healthier inventory control and improved working-capital positioning versus past downturns.

2. Freight Volumes Flat, with No Clear Inflection Yet

ACT’s November Freight Forecast shows for-hire volumes softening again as pre-tariff payback continues and consumer-goods freight weakens. Industrial-linked freight remains sluggish, imports have cooled sharply heading into holiday season, and intermodal volumes remain down y/y with no material modal conversion taking place.

Spot and contract rates softened again in November, widening the margin gap for public TL carriers and reducing appetite for new equipment investment. Investors should expect transportation equities to lean heavily on cost management, asset productivity, and network discipline rather than demand-driven upside.

3. EPA 2027 Uncertainty Still Delaying Prebuy – Policy Catalysts in Focus

The EPA 2027 rule remains the sector’s biggest wildcard. As of November, EPA has provided no updated guidance, reinforcing expectations that warranty and useful-life extensions may be delayed even if technology and emissions targets remain intact.

This has frozen prebuy activity entirely.

However, ACT maintains that a compressed prebuy window in 2026 remains a real possibility—should regulatory clarity arrive abruptly. Such a pivot could spark a rapid surge in Class 8 demand, benefiting OEMs, suppliers, and financially stronger carriers with the ability to secure early build slots.

For investors, regulatory clarity is the single largest upside catalyst for commercial vehicle manufacturers over the next 12 months.

4. Pricing Power Shifts Downstream as OEM Margins Compress

Tariff-driven cost inflation remains embedded, raising acquisition costs and pressuring OEM margins as demand softens. With freight volumes weak and financing costs high, OEMs are absorbing more cost burden to sustain throughput, which compresses margin potential heading into 2026.

Pricing leverage has shifted decisively downstream:

• Large fleets with procurement scale benefit from improved negotiating power.

• Component suppliers face margin pressure as order pipelines thin.

• Smaller OEMs feel disproportionate cost impact due to less purchasing leverage.

Investors should prioritize companies with strong cash conversion, variable-cost flexibility, and minimal reliance on high-cost credit markets.

Bottom Line: A Holding Pattern That Rewards Discipline

November data reinforces a “flat but stable” outlook across freight and equipment markets. Growth remains elusive, but balance sheets are generally healthier and cost structures leaner than in prior downcycles.

For investors, this remains a timing and positioning cycle, not a volume cycle. Capital should favor companies with:

• Strong free cash flow

• Flexible production or service models

• Balance-sheet strength ahead of regulatory and macro catalysts

• Exposure to infrastructure-aligned or non-cyclical freight segments

Until freight demand stabilizes or EPA 2027 clarity triggers renewed fleet spending, performance will be dictated by margin control, efficiency, and adaptability.

The sector is waiting—but those positioned for agility will capture the next upturn first.

Want to hear more from ACT Research? Analysts Lydia Vieth and Ann Rundle explain the current market and regulations, as well as their projections for future electric truck adoption, battery technologies, and beyond.

Where's the electric truck market headed now? (12:56 minute watch)

Market Guidance for Dealers & Leasing Companies

Unlock the power to predict and prosper. ACT's precision analytics arm companies like yours with unparalleled foresight into market trends, enabling you to master market swings, navigate demand changes, manage inventory risk, and boost profitability . Get ahead, stay ahead, and turn market volatility into your competitive edge.