Investors & Financiers
Actionable Insights for Strategic Investments in the Commercial Vehicle Market
Equip your portfolio with data-backed forecasts and deep market analysis, from production cycles to next-gen powertrains and freight trends.
Get Transportation IntelligenceLooking to anticipate market direction or enrich your own investment models with reliable data? ACT Research empowers investors like you with exclusive, data-backed insights directly from the truck, tractor, and trailer manufacturing sectors. With our comprehensive market indicators and forecasting expertise, you'll gain a unique vantage point to make informed, strategic investment decisions in an ever-evolving commercial vehicle landscape.
- Economic & Freight Indicators: Market data on industry demand and economic conditions.
- Future-Ready Forecasting: Insights into Class 4-8 production, alternative powertrains, and clean tech trends.
- Market Health & Risk Analysis: Critical market indicators and competitive landscape to guide risk-adjusted returns.
- Comprehensive Regulatory Outlook: Stay ahead of emissions regulations and compliance shifts.
“I would recommend ACT as your number 1 ‘go to’ source for industry forecasts and just general industry knowledge…You cannot follow this industry, be part of this industry without knowing what ACT Research is saying….”
Mike Zimm
BMO
What It Offers: A Data-Driven Feature Set for Investors
ACT Research’s insights empower investors with the data needed to track, anticipate, and capitalize on trends across the commercial vehicle market. Our feature set equips you with visibility into production cycles, demand fluctuations, and emerging technologies, enabling informed investment choices.
- Market Trends & Sector Health: Quarterly and annual reports on demand cycles, production backlogs, and capital equipment investment indicators across Class 4-8 trucks, essential for gauging market stability and growth potential.
- Alternative Powertrain Forecasting: Detailed forecasts on battery-electric, hydrogen, and natural gas vehicles, identifying high-growth opportunities within clean technology and sustainability sectors.
- Economic & Freight Index Reports: Comprehensive analysis of economic indicators, freight trends, and freight rate movements, providing critical data to assess demand potential and revenue growth.
- Competitive Landscape & M&A Insights: Insightful overviews of OEMs and broader trends within the commercial vehicle ecosystem, supporting well-informed investment and acquisition strategies.
Who Benefits? A Broad Investor Audience Seeking Actionable Market Insights
Investors across sectors gain from ACT Research’s market intelligence, from capital finance and private equity firms to sustainability-focused funds. Our data provides a competitive edge, offering deep insights into the market’s current and future state.
- Capital Finance Companies: Strategically evaluating market demand cycles, production forecasts, and capital equipment trends to guide financing solutions and investments in transportation assets.
- Private Equity and Venture Capital Firms: Identifying growth areas and technology innovations, particularly in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption and alternative powertrains.
- Portfolio Managers and Financial Analysts: Leveraging production and freight movement insights to inform portfolio allocations and monitor performance.
- Sustainability-Focused Funds: Tracking adoption of clean technologies and infrastructure to align with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals.
- Hedge Funds and Institutional Investors: Capitalizing on industry cycles by anticipating shifts in fleet demand, regulatory impacts, and vehicle production trends.
We Focus on 3 Things
Our transportation intelligence solutions give you actionable supply and demand insights to make better, smarter decisions for your business, not as a vendor or tool, but as a partner in your process.
ACT Methodology
ACT has been providing historically accurate Class 8 tractor forecasts, trusted for more than 35 years by Fortune 500 companies, Wall Street's largest investment firms, commercial vehicle equipment manufacturers and suppliers, rental and leasing firms, and others. Serving the commercial vehicle equipment market for decards, we bring this Class 8 tractor understanding to you, giving a supply and demand-focused, balanced, strong, and flexible foundation of analysis.
ACT Proprietary Data
It starts with an exclusive view of Class 8 trucks and tractor splits, providing clarity on the Class 8 tractor capacity. ACT Research is the only company receiving this information monthly directly from the North American truck OEMs (Daimler, PACCAR, Volvo, Navistar). Separating Class 8 straight trucks and Class 8 tractors gives us (and you) visibility into two important pieces of the supply of Class 8 equipment for the freight markets:
1) The number of new Class 8 Tractors Retail Sales, which means new tractors entering the fleet.
2) The change in the active population of the Class 8 Tractor, measuring the total working fleet.
ACT Human Intelligence
Our team isn't just experienced; they're seen as the leaders in forecasting demand for commercial vehicles. We bring you insights from the only transportation intelligence company with more than 250 years of combined experience in forecasting Class 8 tractors. Because of our longstanding work in the market, we challenge traditional market views and offer different perspectives to help you see the market in new ways.
What Our Investors & Financier Customers Rely On:
North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook
Industry-Leading Forecasts to Support Strategic Decisions
What It Offers:
- Class 4-8 Vehicle Forecasts: Get a comprehensive view of vehicle demand trends across trucks and trailers over the next 1, 5, and 10 years.
- Economic and Industry Drivers: Analyze key economic factors driving the commercial vehicle industry.
- Population Composition and Demand Trends: Insights into population models, active fleet, and age.
Who Benefits?
- OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers aligning production capacity with market demand.
- Financial and investment firms tracking industry performance.
- Fleet managers and CFOs optimizing vehicle acquisition strategies.
North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook Plus
Comprehensive Decarbonization Insights for a Zero-Emission Future
What It Offers:
- NA Commercial Vehicle Outlook: Everything in the monthly NA CV Outlook update.
- ZEV Adoption Forecasts: Detailed, bottom-up forecasts for battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, and natural gas vehicles, focusing on Classes 4-8 trucks.
- Infrastructure Readiness Analysis: Coverage and analysis of EV charging and hydrogen refueling station development.
- Regulatory Compliance: Detailed timelines and insights into U.S. and Canadian emissions regulations (CARB, EPA), helping you stay ahead of upcoming mandates.
Who Benefits?
- Fleet managers and CFOs planning for ZEV adoption and infrastructure investments.
- OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers focusing on new propulsion systems and regulatory alignment.
- Shippers and logistics providers seeking to meet sustainability targets while maintaining operations.
U.S. Used Truck Price Forecast
In-Depth Forecasting for U.S. Used Truck Prices
What It Offers:
- Monthly Used Truck Price Forecasts: Accurate, up-to-date forecasts on used truck pricing trends of Class 8 Tractors by age and mileage groups, helping stakeholders anticipate price fluctuations and market cycles.
- Economic and Market Influencers: Analysis of key economic drivers and market conditions affecting used truck prices, such as freight demand, new truck availability, and macroeconomic indicators.
- Inventory and Resale Value Insights: Data on inventory levels and resale value trends, providing critical context for pricing expectations and helping to assess the long-term value of used trucks.
Who Benefits?
- Dealers and Resellers forecasting pricing to optimize inventory acquisition and resale strategies for different truck classes and age groups.
- Fleet Managers and Procurement Teams planning fleet acquisitions or sales based on anticipated pricing trends to maximize value and reduce total cost of ownership.
- Financial Analysts and Investors evaluating the used truck market as an indicator of transportation sector health and potential investment opportunities.
- Lenders and Finance Companies assessing truck values to better structure financing options and manage residual risk.
Freight & Transportation Forecast
TL, LTL, & Intermodal Rate & Volume Forecast
What If Offers:
1. TL Contract & Spot Rate Forecasts: Broken down by Reefer, Flatbed, & Dry Van
2. Cass Shipments & Truckload Linehaul® Indexes Forecasts: Since 2019 Cass & ACT has partnered to provide deeper insights into the TL volumes.
3. ACT Freight Composite Index Forecast: A freight-weighted GDP measure of the economic activity generating freight.
4. LTL & Intermodal Rate and Volume Forecasts: Coverage of and forecasts of the LTL and Intermodal sectors of the market that move freight.
5. ACT For-Hire Survey Indexes: A look at life from the perspective of truckers with our For-Hire Survey Indexes covering topics from rates to drivers to equipment.
Who Benefits?
- Fleet Managers and Operations Directors managing capacity and pricing strategies in response to market shifts and freight rate fluctuations.
- CFOs and Financial Analysts optimizing budgets and planning for capital investments based on demand forecasts and freight trends.
- OEMs and Tier 1 Suppliers developing products and forecasts aligned with freight demand and industry cycles.
- Shippers and Logistics Providers aiming to balance cost efficiency with timely delivery in an unpredictable market.
- Investment Analysts and Market Researchers assessing freight sector health and guiding strategic investments for stakeholders.
- Freight Brokers and Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Providers adjusting pricing models and service offerings in line with freight rate trends and capacity indicators.
North America Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Comprehensive Market Intelligence on North American Class 5-8 Vehicles
What It Offers:
- Monthly Production and Sales Data: In-depth coverage of monthly production, sales, and inventory levels for Class 5-8 trucks, providing critical insights into current and projected market conditions.
- Order Backlogs and Cancellation Rates: Detailed analysis of order backlogs, cancellation rates, and their implications for future demand, supporting accurate assessments of market momentum.
- Insights on Supply Constraints: Up-to-date information on supply chain pressures affecting Class 5-8 production, from parts shortages to labor availability, helping stakeholders manage and anticipate impacts on production timelines.
Who Benefits?
- OEMs and Tier 1 Suppliers optimizing production planning and adjusting to supply chain conditions based on total market data.
- Fleet Owners and Equipment Managers evaluating market trends to make informed decisions on fleet expansion, replacement, and capital investments.
- Logistics Companies and Freight Brokers monitoring equipment availability and market demand to plan capacity needs effectively.
- Investors and Analysts seeking data-driven insights into the performance and trajectory of the Class 5-8 market to guide investment strategies.
NA OEM Classes 5-8 Build & Retail Sales
Detailed Build and Retail Sales Data for North American Commercial Vehicles
What It Offers:
- Production and Retail Sales Tracking: Monthly updates on build rates and retail sales figures for Class 5-8 commercial vehicles, providing a clear snapshot of the market’s production output and sales performance.
- Market Comparisons Across Classes: Comparative analysis across Class 5-8 vehicle segments, offering nuanced insights into performance differences and trends within each vehicle class.
Who Benefits?
- OEMs and Suppliers optimizing production and inventory planning based on accurate build and retail data.
- Dealers and Distributors assessing market demand to align inventory with retail trends and improve stock management.
- Fleet Operators and Procurement Teams using production and sales insights to time acquisitions and optimize fleet investments.
- Investors and Analysts tracking sales and production data as leading indicators of the commercial vehicle market's health and growth potential.
Updated September 17, 2025
Investor Sentiment Turns Cautious as Freight Fundamentals Stall and Equipment Cycles Soften
With freight demand sluggish and order volumes lagging, 2025 remains a margin-driven year with limited upside for volume recovery, but key policy catalysts remain in play.
As of September 2025, the North American freight and commercial vehicle markets remain subdued, with ACT Research’s latest NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK and Freight Forecast confirming a cautious but stable landscape. Freight volumes are soft, equipment orders continue to lag, and fleet behavior reflects a strong preference for capital preservation over expansion.
For investors, this environment calls for a shift in focus: away from top-line growth assumptions and toward bottom-line fundamentals, asset efficiency, and timing of regulatory triggers. With limited visibility on volume acceleration and continued policy overhang, capital discipline is the common thread across OEMs, suppliers, and transport operators.
Key Takeaways for Investors
1. Class 8 Orders Remain Weak, Signaling Cautious Capital Behavior
August Class 8 net orders fell again, continuing a trend of below-average activity that now spans multiple quarters. ACT data points to structural caution in ordering patterns, not just seasonal variability. OEMs are responding with measured production strategies and a focus on high-quality backlogs rather than aggressive build-out.
From a market standpoint, this supports a view of continued revenue pressure on manufacturers and suppliers into Q4 and early 2026. Working capital optimization, pricing integrity, and backlog health will be key indicators of resilience.
2. Freight Volumes Flat, with No Clear Inflection Yet
ACT’s Freight Forecast continues to show weak volume across for-hire trucking, particularly in discretionary retail, building materials, and light industrials. Load-to-truck ratios remain muted, and both spot and contract pricing are showing minimal improvement. Intermodal volumes also softened further into Q3.
This signals limited pricing power and constrained upside for carriers—especially in asset-heavy models. Expect greater focus on efficiency metrics, cost-per-mile improvements, and equipment utilization in upcoming earnings discussions.
3. EPA 2027 Uncertainty Delays Prebuy, But the Clock Is Ticking
Regulatory ambiguity continues to delay the anticipated EPA 2027 prebuy cycle, which many expected to begin taking shape in late 2025. Instead, fleets are largely in a wait-and-see posture, unwilling to commit capital ahead of finalized rulemaking.
However, the risk of compressed prebuy activity in 2026 remains. Investors should monitor regulatory developments closely, as policy clarity could spark a sudden order acceleration, creating demand whiplash that favors flexible OEMs and well-positioned suppliers.
4. Pricing Power Shifts Downstream
Tariff-related cost increases have pushed Class 8 and trailer pricing up by 2–4% y/y, according to ACT. But with freight markets soft and equipment utilization down, OEMs and leasing firms are under pressure to absorb more of those increases rather than pass them on.
For equity and fixed-income investors, this signals contracting margins in upstream segments and a shift in pricing leverage toward larger, procurement-savvy fleets. Capital structure, residual risk, and financing terms will be increasingly important valuation metrics in the quarters ahead.
As of September, the freight and commercial vehicle sectors remain in a holding pattern—operationally stable but lacking a clear demand catalyst. For investors, this is a period to lean into defensive positioning, prioritize companies with cost control and capital agility, and remain tuned into regulatory signals that could reset the demand curve in early 2026. Without those triggers, fundamentals are likely to remain flat but stable through year-end.
Want to hear more from ACT Research? Analysts Lydia Vieth and Ann Rundle explain the current market and regulations, as well as their projections for future electric truck adoption, battery technologies, and beyond.
Where's the electric truck market headed now? (12:56 minute watch)
5 Reasons You Should Choose ACT Research
Choosing ACT Research for your market insights and forecasting means partnering with industry leaders renowned for their precision and insight. Our forecasting solutions are built on unparalleled data accuracy and deep market analysis, providing you with the tools to stay ahead of market trends.
- Proprietary Data
- Methodology
- Human Intelligence
- Track Record of Success
- Trusted by Industry Leaders
Market Guidance for Dealers & Leasing Companies
Unlock the power to predict and prosper. ACT's precision analytics arm companies like yours with unparalleled foresight into market trends, enabling you to master market swings, navigate demand changes, manage inventory risk, and boost profitability . Get ahead, stay ahead, and turn market volatility into your competitive edge.
Drive Your Company To Success with ACT Research's Premium Market Insights
By partnering with ACT Research, dealers and leasing firms gain the advantage of data-driven insights to support effective risk management, uncover new opportunities, and confidently navigate the complexities of the transportation market. Our market intelligence services not only aligns with the fluctuating needs of the industry but also provides a cost-effective solution for accessing industry expertise and insights, empowering dealers and leasing companies to make strategic decisions that drive growth and profitability.