Commercial Vehicle & Freight Market Intelligence for Investors and Financiers
Connect freight, equipment, production, used value, and regulatory signals to stronger investment, credit, and capital planning decisions.
ACT Research helps investors, lenders, finance companies, and capital-market teams understand the freight and commercial vehicle signals shaping transportation-sector risk and opportunity. With forward-looking forecasts, market data, and analyst interpretation, ACT gives your team a clearer view of demand, production, used equipment values, freight conditions, powertrain change, and regulatory timing — so you can evaluate market exposure and build more defensible assumptions.
Get Transportation IntelligenceBuild investment and credit decisions around a clearer market view.
Transportation markets move in cycles, and those cycles create both risk and opportunity. Freight rates, carrier profitability, Class 8 demand, production trends, trailer activity, used truck values, powertrain adoption, and regulatory timing can all affect investment performance, credit exposure, collateral values, and capital allocation.
ACT helps investors and financiers connect these signals into a forward-looking market view that supports stronger modeling, underwriting, portfolio monitoring, and strategic decision-making.
- Market-Cycle Intelligence: Track the freight, equipment, production, and economic signals that shape transportation-sector performance.
- Asset & Collateral Context: Monitor used truck values, equipment demand, inventory, and replacement-cycle signals that may affect residual risk and collateral exposure.
- Forward-Looking Forecasts: Use commercial vehicle, freight, trailer, powertrain, and used equipment forecasts to support investment models and planning assumptions.
- Regulatory & Technology Outlook: Understand how emissions requirements, ZEV adoption, infrastructure readiness, and powertrain shifts may affect future demand and capital risk.
October 2026 Update
Investor Market Update“I would recommend ACT as your number 1 ‘go to’ source for industry forecasts and just general industry knowledge…You cannot follow this industry, be part of this industry without knowing what ACT Research is saying….”
Mike Zimm
BMO
Market intelligence for investment, credit, and capital-risk decisions
ACT Research helps investment and finance teams evaluate the market signals that influence transportation-sector performance, asset values, credit quality, and growth potential.
Our forecasts and market intelligence connect freight conditions, commercial vehicle demand, production trends, used equipment values, and powertrain adoption to the decisions investors and financiers need to make.
- Market Trends & Sector Health: Track demand cycles, order activity, production, backlog, inventory, and capital equipment indicators across Class 4–8 trucks and trailers.
- Freight & Economic Indicators: Evaluate freight volume, rate movement, and economic activity to assess demand potential, revenue pressure, and transportation-market health.
- Asset Value & Residual Risk Signals: Monitor used truck pricing, inventory, resale value, and equipment-cycle conditions that may affect collateral values and portfolio risk.
- Alternative Powertrain Forecasting: Assess battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, natural gas, and other powertrain trends tied to regulation, infrastructure, and adoption timing.
- Competitive & Market Structure Context: Understand OEM dynamics, segment divergence, M&A considerations, and broader commercial vehicle ecosystem trends.
Who uses ACT investor intelligence?
ACT supports capital-market and finance teams that need a clearer view of transportation market cycles, asset risk, and future demand.
- Capital Finance Companies: Evaluate demand cycles, equipment values, production trends, and collateral risk to support financing decisions.
- Lenders and Credit Teams: Monitor freight conditions, carrier health, used equipment values, and segment-level risk for stronger underwriting and portfolio management.
- Private Equity and Venture Capital Firms: Identify market-cycle opportunities, technology adoption trends, and commercial vehicle segments with changing growth potential.
- Portfolio Managers and Financial Analysts: Use freight, production, and equipment-market signals to inform models, allocations, and company-level analysis.
- Sustainability-Focused Funds: Track zero-emission vehicle adoption, infrastructure readiness, and regulation-driven demand shifts.
- Hedge Funds and Institutional Investors: Evaluate industry cycles, demand signals, freight fundamentals, and production trends that may affect market expectations.
Three strengths behind ACT market intelligence
ACT combines proprietary market data, disciplined forecasting methodology, and experienced analyst interpretation to help customers understand not only what changed in the market, but what those signals may mean for future planning decisions.
ACT Methodology
ACT’s forecasting methodology is built on decades of market-cycle experience, industry relationships, historical data, and disciplined analysis.
We connect freight demand, equipment supply, economic activity, production trends, used equipment values, regulatory factors, and customer behavior to help customers evaluate the market with a balanced, forward-looking view.
ACT Proprietary Data
ACT’s market view begins with direct visibility into the freight, equipment, and commercial vehicle signals that shape transportation planning decisions.
By tracking market indicators across commercial vehicles, freight, trailers, used equipment, and broader economic activity, ACT helps customers understand what is changing, how signals connect, and what those shifts may mean for the road ahead.
ACT Human Intelligence
ACT’s analysts bring deep experience across freight, equipment, commercial vehicle, used truck, trailer, regulatory, and economic markets.
We do not simply report the data. We interpret what market signals may mean, how they connect across the transportation cycle, and what decisions they may help inform.
Forecasts and market intelligence investors rely on
North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook
Commercial vehicle forecasts for demand, production, and market planning.
ACT’s North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook helps manufacturers evaluate demand trends across Classes 4–8 vehicles and trailers over near- and long-term planning horizons.
It connects vehicle demand, economic indicators, fleet population trends, and market-cycle movement to help manufacturers align production, capacity, and strategic planning with future market conditions.
What It Offers
- Class 4–8 vehicle and trailer forecasts across 1-, 5-, and 10-year horizons
- Economic and industry drivers shaping commercial vehicle demand
- Fleet population, age, and replacement-cycle insights
- Market context for production, capacity, and demand planning
Who Benefits
- OEMs and suppliers aligning production and capacity with market demand
- Strategy, finance, and sales teams building market assumptions
- Investment and research teams tracking commercial vehicle industry performance
North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook Plus
Commercial vehicle demand, powertrain, and regulatory intelligence for long-term planning.
ACT’s North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook Plus provides a forward-looking view of commercial vehicle demand, zero-emission vehicle adoption, powertrain trends, infrastructure readiness, and regulatory timing.
It helps manufacturers and suppliers evaluate how emissions requirements, technology adoption, and customer behavior may affect production planning, product strategy, and long-term investment.
What It Offers
- North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook coverage and monthly market updates
- Bottom-up forecasts for battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, and natural gas vehicles across Classes 4–8
- Infrastructure readiness analysis for charging and hydrogen refueling
- U.S. and Canadian emissions regulation timelines and planning implications
Who Benefits
- OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers planning product, production, and powertrain strategy
- Engine, component, and infrastructure suppliers evaluating future demand
- Fleet and finance teams assessing technology timing and total cost implications
U.S. Used Truck Price Forecast
Used truck value intelligence for collateral, residual-risk, and market-cycle analysis.
Used truck values can provide an important signal for transportation-sector health, fleet behavior, replacement timing, and collateral exposure.
ACT’s U.S. Used Truck Price Forecast helps investors, lenders, finance companies, and analysts evaluate used Class 8 tractor price trends by age and mileage group, with market context tied to freight demand, new truck availability, inventory, and macroeconomic conditions.
What It Offers
- Monthly used truck price forecasts for Class 8 tractors by age and mileage group
- Economic and market drivers affecting used truck prices
- Inventory, resale value, and replacement-cycle context
- Market intelligence for residual-risk and collateral-value analysis
Who Benefits
- Lenders and finance companies assessing collateral values and residual risk
- Investors and analysts using used truck prices as a transportation-sector health indicator
- Dealers, fleets, and remarketing teams evaluating inventory and resale expectations
Freight & Transportation Forecast
Rate, volume, and freight-cycle intelligence for manufacturing demand context.
Freight conditions influence fleet profitability, replacement timing, equipment demand, and customer urgency. ACT’s Freight & Transportation Forecast helps manufacturers connect freight market movement to broader equipment and commercial vehicle demand.
What It Offers
- Truckload contract and spot rate forecasts for dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed markets
- Cass Shipments and Truckload Linehaul Index forecasts
- ACT Freight Composite Index Forecast, a freight-weighted measure of economic activity
- LTL and intermodal rate and volume forecasts
- ACT For-Hire Survey Indexes covering rates, drivers, equipment, and fleet sentiment
Who Benefits
- OEMs and suppliers connecting freight conditions to future equipment demand
- Fleet and finance teams evaluating freight-cycle timing
- Strategy and market intelligence teams assessing transportation market health
North America Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Comprehensive Market Intelligence on North American Class 5-8 Vehicles
What It Offers:
- Monthly Production and Sales Data: In-depth coverage of monthly production, sales, and inventory levels for Class 5-8 trucks, providing critical insights into current and projected market conditions.
- Order Backlogs and Cancellation Rates: Detailed analysis of order backlogs, cancellation rates, and their implications for future demand, supporting accurate assessments of market momentum.
- Insights on Supply Constraints: Up-to-date information on supply chain pressures affecting Class 5-8 production, from parts shortages to labor availability, helping stakeholders manage and anticipate impacts on production timelines.
Who Benefits?
- OEMs and Tier 1 Suppliers optimizing production planning and adjusting to supply chain conditions based on total market data.
- Fleet Owners and Equipment Managers evaluating market trends to make informed decisions on fleet expansion, replacement, and capital investments.
- Logistics Companies and Freight Brokers monitoring equipment availability and market demand to plan capacity needs effectively.
- Investors and Analysts seeking data-driven insights into the performance and trajectory of the Class 5-8 market to guide investment strategies.
NA OEM Classes 5-8 Build & Retail Sales
Detailed Build and Retail Sales Data for North American Commercial Vehicles
What It Offers:
- Production and Retail Sales Tracking: Monthly updates on build rates and retail sales figures for Class 5-8 commercial vehicles, providing a clear snapshot of the market’s production output and sales performance.
- Market Comparisons Across Classes: Comparative analysis across Class 5-8 vehicle segments, offering nuanced insights into performance differences and trends within each vehicle class.
Who Benefits?
- OEMs and Suppliers optimizing production and inventory planning based on accurate build and retail data.
- Dealers and Distributors assessing market demand to align inventory with retail trends and improve stock management.
- Fleet Operators and Procurement Teams using production and sales insights to time acquisitions and optimize fleet investments.
- Investors and Analysts tracking sales and production data as leading indicators of the commercial vehicle market's health and growth potential.
Updated October 26, 2026
Market Update - Investors & Financiers
October 2026 Update
Freight rates and used-truck prices moved, but they measure different exposures. September U.S. dry van spot rates excluding fuel were 33% above a year earlier. The average retail price of a used Class 8 truck was $64,007, up 12% from a year earlier but down 1.9% from August. Neither national measure alone describes a borrower's cash flow or a specific asset's residual value.
Higher Rates Do Not Produce Uniform Earnings Improvement
For a carrier credit, higher revenue can be offset by fuel, labor, insurance, maintenance or financing costs. For an OEM or supplier credit, booked equipment may require materials and working capital before completed deliveries generate cash. For an asset portfolio, the used-truck average changes with the age, mileage and specifications of vehicles sold; it is not a matched-vehicle price index. The September decline in same-dealer used Class 8 retail transactions also warrants attention to transaction volume alongside price.
Equipment Orders and Cash Generation Follow Different Timelines
ACT links freight economics, current equipment activity and asset-market indicators so investors and lenders can test their assumptions by exposure. Review utilization and customer mix for operating businesses, backlog conversion and working capital for manufacturers, and vehicle characteristics and remarketing channels for collateral. The underlying reports and forecasts support scenario work without treating one market average as a portfolio conclusion.
Evaluate Connected Markets Without Assuming Identical Timing
Freight pricing, equipment purchasing, production, and inventory adjustment can move on different schedules. Replacement requirements may support sales even as the freight cycle matures, while inventory exposure can affect individual equipment categories independently.
ACT’s Freight Forecast, North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, and Used Truck Price Forecast connect these developments. That market context helps investors and finance teams examine the assumptions behind revenue, margins, production, utilization, and asset values.
Why investors and financiers choose ACT Research
Investment and credit decisions require more than a single market signal. ACT combines direct market data, disciplined forecasting methodology, analyst expertise, and long-standing industry relationships to help investors and financiers understand the freight and commercial vehicle signals shaping risk, opportunity, and market performance.
- Proprietary commercial vehicle, freight, and used equipment market data
- Forecast methodology built on decades of market-cycle experience
- Analyst interpretation that connects demand, production, freight, and asset-value signals
- Market intelligence used by transportation, manufacturing, finance, leasing, and investment teams
- Trusted perspective for evaluating industry cycles, credit exposure, and capital-market risk
Market guidance for investment and credit decisions
ACT helps investors and finance teams understand the market signals that affect transportation-sector performance, asset values, credit quality, and capital allocation.
Our intelligence supports teams responsible for investment research, underwriting, portfolio monitoring, asset valuation, risk management, and executive planning with a clearer view of freight conditions, equipment demand, production trends, used truck values, powertrain adoption, and regulatory timing.
With ACT Research, investment and finance teams can:
- Make stronger strategic decisions with current market analysis and forward-looking commercial vehicle and freight forecasts.
- Evaluate credit and collateral exposure with better visibility into used truck values, equipment demand, freight conditions, and carrier health.
- Connect freight conditions to equipment demand by understanding how rates, fleet profitability, and replacement cycles may affect commercial vehicle markets.
- Assess regulatory and powertrain risk with intelligence on emissions timing, ZEV adoption, engine demand, and infrastructure readiness.
- Spot risks and opportunities earlier across freight, economic, regulatory, equipment, and powertrain-cycle signals.
- Support models and investment theses with market assumptions your team can defend.
Ready to connect market signals to your next investment or credit decision?
ACT helps investors and financiers connect freight conditions, commercial vehicle demand, production trends, used equipment values, powertrain change, and regulatory timing to stronger market analysis and capital planning decisions.
Whether your team is evaluating credit exposure, monitoring portfolio risk, building an investment thesis, assessing collateral values, or tracking transportation-sector cycles, ACT can help you develop a clearer view of what comes next.
Questions about the right intelligence for your investment or credit decisions?
ACT can help you identify the forecasts, market data, and analyst perspective that fit your research, underwriting, portfolio, or capital-planning needs.