Commercial Vehicle & Freight Market Intelligence for Investors
Actionable Insights for Strategic Investments in the Commercial Vehicle Market
For 40 years, ACT Research has delivered predictive insight from the heart of the commercial-vehicle industry — now you get that same vantage point. With data from OEMs, and forecasts on next-gen powertrains, freight volumes and market cycles, we give investors the clarity to anticipate risk, capture opportunity and prepare for what’s next.
Get Transportation IntelligenceLooking to anticipate market direction or enrich your own investment models with reliable data? ACT Research empowers investors like you with exclusive, data-backed insights directly from the truck, tractor, and trailer manufacturing sectors. With our comprehensive market indicators and forecasting expertise, you'll gain a unique vantage point to make informed, strategic investment decisions in an ever-evolving commercial vehicle landscape.
- Economic & Freight Indicators: Market data on industry demand and economic conditions.
- Future-Ready Forecasting: Insights into Class 4-8 production, alternative powertrains, and clean tech trends.
- Market Health & Risk Analysis: Critical market indicators and competitive landscape to guide risk-adjusted returns.
- Comprehensive Regulatory Outlook: Stay ahead of emissions regulations and compliance shifts.
“I would recommend ACT as your number 1 ‘go to’ source for industry forecasts and just general industry knowledge…You cannot follow this industry, be part of this industry without knowing what ACT Research is saying….”
Mike Zimm
BMO
What It Offers: A Data-Driven Feature Set for Investors
ACT Research’s insights empower investors with the data needed to track, anticipate, and capitalize on trends across the commercial vehicle market. Our feature set equips you with visibility into production cycles, demand fluctuations, and emerging technologies, enabling informed investment choices.
- Market Trends & Sector Health: Quarterly and annual reports on demand cycles, production backlogs, and capital equipment investment indicators across Class 4-8 trucks, essential for gauging market stability and growth potential.
- Alternative Powertrain Forecasting: Detailed forecasts on battery-electric, hydrogen, and natural gas vehicles, identifying high-growth opportunities within clean technology and sustainability sectors.
- Economic & Freight Index Reports: Comprehensive analysis of economic indicators, freight trends, and freight rate movements, providing critical data to assess demand potential and revenue growth.
- Competitive Landscape & M&A Insights: Insightful overviews of OEMs and broader trends within the commercial vehicle ecosystem, supporting well-informed investment and acquisition strategies.
Who Benefits? A Broad Investor Audience Seeking Actionable Market Insights
Investors across sectors gain from ACT Research’s market intelligence, from capital finance and private equity firms to sustainability-focused funds. Our data provides a competitive edge, offering deep insights into the market’s current and future state.
- Capital Finance Companies: Strategically evaluating market demand cycles, production forecasts, and capital equipment trends to guide financing solutions and investments in transportation assets.
- Private Equity and Venture Capital Firms: Identifying growth areas and technology innovations, particularly in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption and alternative powertrains.
- Portfolio Managers and Financial Analysts: Leveraging production and freight movement insights to inform portfolio allocations and monitor performance.
- Sustainability-Focused Funds: Tracking adoption of clean technologies and infrastructure to align with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals.
- Hedge Funds and Institutional Investors: Capitalizing on industry cycles by anticipating shifts in fleet demand, regulatory impacts, and vehicle production trends.
We Focus on 3 Things
Our transportation intelligence solutions give you actionable supply and demand insights to make better, smarter decisions for your business, not as a vendor or tool, but as a partner in your process.
ACT Methodology
ACT has been providing historically accurate Class 8 tractor forecasts, trusted for more than 35 years by Fortune 500 companies, Wall Street's largest investment firms, commercial vehicle equipment manufacturers and suppliers, rental and leasing firms, and others. Serving the commercial vehicle equipment market for decards, we bring this Class 8 tractor understanding to you, giving a supply and demand-focused, balanced, strong, and flexible foundation of analysis.
ACT Proprietary Data
It starts with an exclusive view of Class 8 trucks and tractor splits, providing clarity on the Class 8 tractor capacity. ACT Research is the only company receiving this information monthly directly from the North American truck OEMs (Daimler, PACCAR, Volvo, Navistar). Separating Class 8 straight trucks and Class 8 tractors gives us (and you) visibility into two important pieces of the supply of Class 8 equipment for the freight markets:
1) The number of new Class 8 Tractors Retail Sales, which means new tractors entering the fleet.
2) The change in the active population of the Class 8 Tractor, measuring the total working fleet.
ACT Human Intelligence
Our team isn't just experienced; they're seen as the leaders in forecasting demand for commercial vehicles. We bring you insights from the only transportation intelligence company with more than 250 years of combined experience in forecasting Class 8 tractors. Because of our longstanding work in the market, we challenge traditional market views and offer different perspectives to help you see the market in new ways.
What Our Investors & Financier Customers Rely On:
North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook
Industry-Leading Forecasts to Support Strategic Decisions
What It Offers:
- Class 4-8 Vehicle Forecasts: Get a comprehensive view of vehicle demand trends across trucks and trailers over the next 1, 5, and 10 years.
- Economic and Industry Drivers: Analyze key economic factors driving the commercial vehicle industry.
- Population Composition and Demand Trends: Insights into population models, active fleet, and age.
Who Benefits?
- OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers aligning production capacity with market demand.
- Financial and investment firms tracking industry performance.
- Fleet managers and CFOs optimizing vehicle acquisition strategies.
North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook Plus
Comprehensive Decarbonization Insights for a Zero-Emission Future
What It Offers:
- NA Commercial Vehicle Outlook: Everything in the monthly NA CV Outlook update.
- ZEV Adoption Forecasts: Detailed, bottom-up forecasts for battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, and natural gas vehicles, focusing on Classes 4-8 trucks.
- Infrastructure Readiness Analysis: Coverage and analysis of EV charging and hydrogen refueling station development.
- Regulatory Compliance: Detailed timelines and insights into U.S. and Canadian emissions regulations (CARB, EPA), helping you stay ahead of upcoming mandates.
Who Benefits?
- Fleet managers and CFOs planning for ZEV adoption and infrastructure investments.
- OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers focusing on new propulsion systems and regulatory alignment.
- Shippers and logistics providers seeking to meet sustainability targets while maintaining operations.
U.S. Used Truck Price Forecast
In-Depth Forecasting for U.S. Used Truck Prices
What It Offers:
- Monthly Used Truck Price Forecasts: Accurate, up-to-date forecasts on used truck pricing trends of Class 8 Tractors by age and mileage groups, helping stakeholders anticipate price fluctuations and market cycles.
- Economic and Market Influencers: Analysis of key economic drivers and market conditions affecting used truck prices, such as freight demand, new truck availability, and macroeconomic indicators.
- Inventory and Resale Value Insights: Data on inventory levels and resale value trends, providing critical context for pricing expectations and helping to assess the long-term value of used trucks.
Who Benefits?
- Dealers and Resellers forecasting pricing to optimize inventory acquisition and resale strategies for different truck classes and age groups.
- Fleet Managers and Procurement Teams planning fleet acquisitions or sales based on anticipated pricing trends to maximize value and reduce total cost of ownership.
- Financial Analysts and Investors evaluating the used truck market as an indicator of transportation sector health and potential investment opportunities.
- Lenders and Finance Companies assessing truck values to better structure financing options and manage residual risk.
Freight & Transportation Forecast
TL, LTL, & Intermodal Rate & Volume Forecast
What If Offers:
1. TL Contract & Spot Rate Forecasts: Broken down by Reefer, Flatbed, & Dry Van
2. Cass Shipments & Truckload Linehaul® Indexes Forecasts: Since 2019 Cass & ACT has partnered to provide deeper insights into the TL volumes.
3. ACT Freight Composite Index Forecast: A freight-weighted GDP measure of the economic activity generating freight.
4. LTL & Intermodal Rate and Volume Forecasts: Coverage of and forecasts of the LTL and Intermodal sectors of the market that move freight.
5. ACT For-Hire Survey Indexes: A look at life from the perspective of truckers with our For-Hire Survey Indexes covering topics from rates to drivers to equipment.
Who Benefits?
- Fleet Managers and Operations Directors managing capacity and pricing strategies in response to market shifts and freight rate fluctuations.
- CFOs and Financial Analysts optimizing budgets and planning for capital investments based on demand forecasts and freight trends.
- OEMs and Tier 1 Suppliers developing products and forecasts aligned with freight demand and industry cycles.
- Shippers and Logistics Providers aiming to balance cost efficiency with timely delivery in an unpredictable market.
- Investment Analysts and Market Researchers assessing freight sector health and guiding strategic investments for stakeholders.
- Freight Brokers and Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Providers adjusting pricing models and service offerings in line with freight rate trends and capacity indicators.
North America Classes 5-8 Vehicles
Comprehensive Market Intelligence on North American Class 5-8 Vehicles
What It Offers:
- Monthly Production and Sales Data: In-depth coverage of monthly production, sales, and inventory levels for Class 5-8 trucks, providing critical insights into current and projected market conditions.
- Order Backlogs and Cancellation Rates: Detailed analysis of order backlogs, cancellation rates, and their implications for future demand, supporting accurate assessments of market momentum.
- Insights on Supply Constraints: Up-to-date information on supply chain pressures affecting Class 5-8 production, from parts shortages to labor availability, helping stakeholders manage and anticipate impacts on production timelines.
Who Benefits?
- OEMs and Tier 1 Suppliers optimizing production planning and adjusting to supply chain conditions based on total market data.
- Fleet Owners and Equipment Managers evaluating market trends to make informed decisions on fleet expansion, replacement, and capital investments.
- Logistics Companies and Freight Brokers monitoring equipment availability and market demand to plan capacity needs effectively.
- Investors and Analysts seeking data-driven insights into the performance and trajectory of the Class 5-8 market to guide investment strategies.
NA OEM Classes 5-8 Build & Retail Sales
Detailed Build and Retail Sales Data for North American Commercial Vehicles
What It Offers:
- Production and Retail Sales Tracking: Monthly updates on build rates and retail sales figures for Class 5-8 commercial vehicles, providing a clear snapshot of the market’s production output and sales performance.
- Market Comparisons Across Classes: Comparative analysis across Class 5-8 vehicle segments, offering nuanced insights into performance differences and trends within each vehicle class.
Who Benefits?
- OEMs and Suppliers optimizing production and inventory planning based on accurate build and retail data.
- Dealers and Distributors assessing market demand to align inventory with retail trends and improve stock management.
- Fleet Operators and Procurement Teams using production and sales insights to time acquisitions and optimize fleet investments.
- Investors and Analysts tracking sales and production data as leading indicators of the commercial vehicle market's health and growth potential.
Updated February 27, 2026
Investor Sentiment Stabilizes as Freight Tightens and Orderboards Rebuild
February 2026
With freight fundamentals firmer entering February 2026 and capacity contraction accelerating, investor sentiment is shifting from defensive to cautiously constructive. While goods-oriented demand remains uneven, materially higher spot rates, declining operating authorities, and improving Class 8 backlogs are signaling that the prolonged oversupply phase is easing. Equipment investment remains disciplined, but forward visibility has improved modestly compared to late 2025.
ACT Research’s February N.A. Commercial Vehicle Outlook and Freight Forecast show a market transitioning from contraction toward early-cycle normalization. Spot truckload rates are running significantly higher year-over-year, and load-to-truck ratios have reached multi-year highs following winter disruptions layered onto a structurally leaner carrier base. Carrier profitability remains uneven but is stabilizing as rate floors reset higher. For investors, the near-term environment remains margin-focused—but the downside momentum that defined much of 2024–2025 has moderated.
Performance through early 2026 will continue to hinge on margin durability, cost control, and capital discipline—but improving supply-demand alignment is beginning to support a more constructive medium-term narrative.
Key Takeaways for Investors
1. Class 8 Orders Rebuild from Trough Levels, but Expansion Remains Measured
December 2025 Class 8 orders rebounded sharply, and January intake remained solid year-over-year, pushing backlogs to a 12-month high. While part of the surge reflects deferred replacement and regulatory clarification, tightening freight conditions and firmer rate floors are contributing to improved fleet engagement. Rolling order volumes remain below peak-cycle expansion levels, but the trajectory has shifted from contraction to stabilization.
OEMs continue to emphasize production discipline, aligning builds with confirmed backlog rather than speculative growth. Tractor inventories have normalized meaningfully following extended production cuts, while vocational inventories remain elevated but are gradually correcting.
Fleet caution continues to reflect:
- Profitability that is improving but not fully normalized
- §232 heavy-vehicle tariffs structurally embedded in pricing
- EPA 2027 clarity confirming higher future equipment costs
Supplier sentiment has improved modestly as order visibility into early 2026 strengthens, though quoting remains selective and pipelines remain disciplined. For investors, revenue stabilization rather than sharp acceleration remains the base case—but backlog improvement reduces downside risk relative to 2025.
2. Freight Volumes Stabilizing as Rate Floors Reset Higher
ACT’s February Freight Forecast shows freight volumes stabilizing alongside tightening supply conditions. While goods-intensive sectors such as housing and manufacturing remain uneven, spot truckload rates are materially higher year-over-year, and load-to-truck ratios indicate a leaner carrier base.
Unlike prior weather-driven volatility, recent rate strength reflects structural capacity contraction rather than purely episodic disruption. Contract rate improvement remains incremental, but pricing power is no longer deteriorating. Public TL carriers continue to manage margins tightly, though the environment has shifted from erosion toward gradual stabilization.
Investors should expect transportation equities to benefit more from rate normalization and disciplined cost control than from immediate volume acceleration.
3. EPA 2027 Clarity Improves – Prebuy Discussions Re-Emerge
EPA 2027 remains the sector’s most important policy variable. February updates reinforce expectations that core low-NOx technology requirements will remain while extended warranty provisions are likely to be reduced relative to earlier proposals. Regulatory clarity has improved, but higher 2027 equipment prices are effectively confirmed.
Prebuy discussions have become more active as freight conditions improve, though broad-based acceleration has not yet materialized. Fleets are modeling timing strategies rather than executing aggressively, constrained by capital costs and balance-sheet priorities.
For investors, regulatory timing remains a key catalyst. A more defined 2027 pricing environment or improved financing conditions could trigger a concentrated prebuy window in late 2026—creating a potential demand surge benefiting OEMs, suppliers, and well-capitalized fleets.
4. Margin Discipline Remains Central as Pricing Dynamics Improve
Tariff-driven cost inflation remains embedded in equipment pricing, keeping acquisition costs elevated. However, tightening freight markets and backlog rebuilding are stabilizing OEM margin outlooks relative to late 2025 conditions. Production discipline and inventory control remain core themes.
Pricing leverage is gradually rebalancing:
- Large, well-capitalized fleets are regaining selective negotiating power as rate floors rise.
- Component suppliers benefit from improving backlog stability but remain cautious.
- Companies with strong free cash flow, working-capital control, and flexible cost structures remain best positioned.
Investors should continue favoring balance-sheet strength, cash conversion, and exposure to infrastructure-, utility-, and data-center-aligned demand streams.
Bottom Line: From Defensive to Stabilizing
February data suggests the sector is transitioning from flat and fragile toward stabilizing and structurally tightening. Freight is not booming, but oversupply conditions are easing. Class 8 backlogs have rebuilt from cycle lows, capacity contraction is accelerating, and spot rate floors have moved materially higher year-over-year.
This remains a positioning cycle—but with improving fundamentals. Capital should favor companies with:
- Strong free cash flow generation
- Flexible production or service models
- Balance-sheet strength ahead of regulatory and demand inflection points
- Exposure to tightening truckload dynamics and infrastructure-aligned freight
Until freight-driven profitability fully normalizes or EPA 2027 timing triggers a more defined prebuy wave, performance will continue to be dictated by margin control and operational discipline. However, the tone has shifted: the sector is no longer deteriorating—it is stabilizing.
Those positioned for agility, cost control, and regulatory preparedness will be best positioned to capture the next upcycle as it unfolds.
5 Reasons You Should Choose ACT Research
Choosing ACT Research for your market insights and forecasting means partnering with industry leaders renowned for their precision and insight. Our forecasting solutions are built on unparalleled data accuracy and deep market analysis, providing you with the tools to stay ahead of market trends.
- Proprietary Data
- Methodology
- Human Intelligence
- Track Record of Success
- Trusted by Industry Leaders
Market Guidance for Dealers & Leasing Companies
Unlock the power to predict and prosper. ACT's precision analytics arm companies like yours with unparalleled foresight into market trends, enabling you to master market swings, navigate demand changes, manage inventory risk, and boost profitability . Get ahead, stay ahead, and turn market volatility into your competitive edge.
Drive Your Company To Success with ACT Research's Premium Market Insights
By partnering with ACT Research, dealers and leasing firms gain the advantage of data-driven insights to support effective risk management, uncover new opportunities, and confidently navigate the complexities of the transportation market. Our market intelligence services not only aligns with the fluctuating needs of the industry but also provides a cost-effective solution for accessing industry expertise and insights, empowering dealers and leasing companies to make strategic decisions that drive growth and profitability.