Carriers & Fleets

Updated November 21, 2025

For-Hire Carriers Face a Crossroads: Shrinking Orders, Tight Margins, and Regulatory Uncertainty

November brings continued strain for for-hire carriers as freight volumes soften again, rate momentum stalls, and regulatory clarity remains elusive. According to ACT Research’s latest Freight Forecast and Commercial Vehicle Outlook, freight activity remains under pressure, with pre-tariff demand now fully reversed and payback effects flowing through the system. Class 8 order activity remains well below seasonal norms during what is historically peak ordering season, reflecting deep caution across the market.

For-hire carriers—particularly public TL fleets—are still contending with recession-like margins. Operating costs remain elevated, while weak pricing power and intensifying private-fleet competition limit revenue recovery. Capacity is starting to contract, but the imbalance between freight supply and demand persists. As a result, most carriers remain in a “preserve and optimize” posture, emphasizing cash management, utilization, driver productivity, and network control over expansion.

Class 8 Orders Signal Persistent Fleet Hesitation

October Class 8 orders were again well below normal for the peak season, extending a multi-month trend of restrained fleet commitments. The temporary pre-tariff lift from mid-2025 has fully faded, and orderboards for 2026 remain lighter than usual. OEMs continue to manage daily builds carefully, reducing output as higher inventory levels—particularly in vocational categories—take time to normalize.

Fleets continue to concentrate on replacement-only strategies, deferring discretionary purchases amid tariff-driven cost inflation and uncertainty surrounding the EPA’s 2027 low-NOx standards. Equipment prices remain elevated due to tariff impacts, while used truck values softened again in October, extending their multi-month slide as wholesale and auction channels experienced further price pressure.

Replacement purchases are increasingly tactical. Fleets are leaning on extended trade cycles, short-term leases, and deferred upgrades to preserve liquidity. With profitability strained and financing costs still elevated, capital allocation remains firmly defensive, prioritizing flexibility over multi-year commitments.

Profitability Hinges on Network Control and Cost Discipline

With both spot and contract rates softening into early November after October’s pre-tariff tightness, carrier profitability depends heavily on operational precision. ACT’s latest data shows the freight slowdown broadening across sectors, with import-driven volumes, general merchandise, and industrial freight all weakening. Stability exists in food distribution, healthcare, and infrastructure-aligned freight—but these segments remain too small to drive broad recovery.

The carriers maintaining relative profitability are those aggressively optimizing networks:

• Route and lane rationalization to reduce empty miles

• Driver and equipment utilization gains through productivity tools

• Tighter fuel and maintenance management

• Active customer mix adjustments to protect yield

Insurance, maintenance, and financing expenses all remain elevated, reinforcing the importance of optimization. In today’s environment, even marginal gains in utilization or routing translate directly into improved financial stability.

EPA 2027: Delay Doesn’t Equal Dismissal

Regulatory uncertainty remains the industry’s most significant strategic risk. EPA has still not issued updated guidance on the 2027 low-NOx requirements, increasing expectations for a partial delay or rollback, particularly for warranty and useful-life extensions. However, fleets acknowledge the possibility of earlier state-level or regional requirements—meaning regulatory risk is merely shifting, not disappearing.

Leading fleets are preparing accordingly. Many are:

• Reviewing fleet segments for potential early compliance upgrades

• Engaging OEMs on 2027-spec cost structures

• Assessing charging and fueling partnerships for ZEV pilots

• Strengthening financing options and credit lines in anticipation of higher equipment costs

The goal is not early adoption—it's early optionality. When policy clarity arrives, the fleets with flexible capital structures and pre-established vendor relationships will move first.

Outlook: Tactical Patience, Strategic Preparation

ACT Research’s November reports reinforce what fleet executives increasingly recognize: the freight environment is not deteriorating rapidly, but it is not improving at a pace that justifies aggressive investment. Pre-tariff paybacks and weak consumer and industrial activity continue to suppress volumes, while tariffs and regulatory uncertainty cloud the equipment outlook.

For-hire carriers must balance short-term caution with long-term readiness. Those who navigate today’s constraints with cost discipline, operational focus, and proactive regulatory planning will be best positioned when freight stabilizes and policy clarity returns.

In this late-cycle phase, patience is positioning—not paralysis.
Carriers optimizing networks, managing capital tightly, and preparing for the next regulatory wave will define the industry’s leaders as conditions reset moving into 2027 and beyond.

For-hire trucking's overcapacity problem—and its eventual solution (4:36 minute watch)

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