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Updated November 21, 2025

Chaos Is Cash—For the Shippers Who Prepare

With freight markets still soft, rates slipping again in early November, and fleet investment slowing further, shippers that prepare now will outperform when volatility returns. Beneath the surface calm, structural pressures are building across equipment, tariffs, and regulatory timelines—setting the stage for meaningful capacity dislocation once freight demand stabilizes.

ACT Research’s November data shows a market drifting deeper into a payback period following the pre-tariff surge of mid-2025. Spot rates softened again in early November after October’s temporary tightness, contract rates remain stagnant, and capacity is returning to the market as load-posting activity normalizes. But the deeper signals show tightening ahead: Class 8 builds have fallen sharply, backlogs rose on lower build rates, trailer backlogs remain near historic lows, and EPA 2027 remains unresolved.

For shippers, this quiet phase represents a strategic advantage window. The market’s apparent stability is temporary—those who benchmark, renegotiate, and build network resilience now will control cost and capacity later.

Use Current Rate Stability to Benchmark and Rebuild Cost Models

November data confirms that both spot and contract rates slipped from October’s levels as capacity returned and pre-tariff payback intensified. Rate stability continues to favor shippers—but the cycle is already preparing to turn.

This is the right time to:

• Reassess cost-to-serve by lane and mode with updated assumptions

• Rebalance modal strategies as intermodal and TL rates remain compressed

• Rebuild routing guides while high-capacity conditions persist

Underlying tightening signals are becoming more apparent:

• Class 8 builds dropped again in October as OEMs trim output

• Retail sales moved below replacement levels for the first time in 18 months

• Orderboards for 2026 are described by OEMs as “below average but not dire”

• Trailer backlogs remain at rock-bottom levels despite a modest October uptick

When freight demand stabilizes—potentially in mid-2026—today’s underbuilding sets the foundation for a rapid tightening cycle.

Shippers who lock in rates, secure annualized commitments, and deepen carrier partnerships now will outperform when the cycle turns.

Track Equipment Signals to Stay Ahead of Service Risk

Fleet age continues to rise as carriers defer replacement and OEMs keep output low. ACT’s November reports indicate:

• Used truck retail prices declined again in October

• Auction and wholesale values softened further, signaling continued de-fleeting

• Tractor inventories are normalizing, but vocational inventories remain elevated

• New equipment costs continue to climb due to 232 tariff effects

As fleets stretch maintenance cycles and operate older equipment, service reliability risks increase—especially in reefer, tanker, and specialized segments where compliance and equipment uptime are critical.

Shippers should use this window to audit:

• Carrier fleet age and maintenance posture

• Emissions compliance readiness for late-2026 and 2027

• Financial resilience amid recession-like carrier margins

Prioritizing carriers with newer assets, stronger balance sheets, and compliance plans will reduce service interruptions and protect lane performance in 2026–2027.

Plan for Policy-Led Volatility in 2026

EPA 2027 remains the largest unresolved risk to shippers. As of November, no updated guidance has been issued, and expectations are shifting toward a partial delay or modification, especially around warranty and useful-life provisions.

This uncertainty has halted prebuy activity and is suppressing new equipment investment. But once clarity arrives—whether in mid-2026 or late-2026—the reaction could be rapid:

• A compressed prebuy window could emerge

• OEM orderboards could tighten quickly

• Lead times for tractors, trailers, and critical components could extend

• Regional regulatory differences may create service imbalances

For shippers, the playbook is preparation—not prediction.

Actions to take now:

• Scorecard carriers for compliance and fleet modernization paths

• Add modal flexibility to protect service continuity

• Build carrier redundancy into high-risk regions

• Revisit contract structures for contingency pricing or multi-carrier allocation

These steps will safeguard network performance and help prevent cost escalation as regulatory and tariff pressures converge in 2026.

Want to hear more from ACT Research? Tim Denoyer sat down with Jeremy Wolfe from FleetOwner to talk about for-hire trucking's overcapacity problem and its likely solutions.

For-hire trucking's overcapacity problem—and its eventual solution (4:36 minute watch)