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Freight markets can shift quickly. Rates firm, capacity tightens, volumes change, and planning assumptions become outdated before teams have time to adjust.

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Updated June 29, 2026

Market Update - Shippers

June 2026 Update

June brings a tighter and more expensive transportation planning environment for shippers. ACT’s latest Freight Forecast shows the truckload market has entered a period of rising rates and tight capacity, with driver availability falling sharply. Roadcheck confirmed the tighter market balance, and rates remained firm even as load-to-truck ratios moderated in early June.

The market is not tightening because freight demand has surged. Freight activity is improving in pockets, supported by restocking, lower tariffs, industrial recovery, and private fleet contraction, but the shipper takeaway is that cost and service pressure are being driven primarily by constrained capacity, driver availability pressure, and supply-side disruption against uneven demand.

For shippers, this is a narrowing planning window. Transportation teams that benchmark rates, test routing guide resilience, and strengthen carrier commitments now will be better positioned if capacity tightens further through bid season.

Use Current Rate Movement to Benchmark and Rebuild Cost Models

Spot rates are firmer, and contract pricing is now following more clearly. ACT’s June Freight Forecast shows aggregate DAT contract rates were nearly 10% above year-ago levels in May, signaling that spot-market strength is moving into broader pricing resets.

From a procurement perspective, this is the time to reassess lane-level cost assumptions before tighter conditions become fully embedded in contract renewals. Shippers should monitor spot-contract spreads, tender acceptance, carrier availability, and how quickly rate pressure moves from transactional freight into routing guides.

This is the right time to:

· Reassess cost-to-serve by lane and mode using updated labor, insurance, equipment, fuel, and accessorial assumptions
· Rebalance modal strategies where tighter truckload conditions improve intermodal competitiveness
· Rebuild routing guides and backup coverage before capacity becomes more difficult to secure

Underlying tightening signals are becoming more pronounced:

· Driver availability has fallen sharply
· Spot rates are leading contract rates higher
· Capacity is less abundant than it was through the prior downcycle
· Freight demand is stabilizing, but not accelerating broadly

Shippers who secure core capacity, deepen carrier commitments, and improve routing guide resiliency now will be better positioned to control cost and protect service as the cycle advances.

Track Equipment Signals to Stay Ahead of Service Risk

Equipment conditions matter for service reliability because carrier investment decisions affect capacity quality, uptime, and replacement timing. ACT’s latest Classes 5–8 report shows Class 8 order activity strengthened sharply year-over-year in May, led by tractor demand and supported by stronger freight rates, tighter capacity, and EPA 2027 planning.

Used truck signals are also relevant. ACT’s June Used Trucks report shows May same-dealer used Class 8 retail sales improved year-over-year, while average retail pricing was also higher. For shippers, improving used values may support carrier trade-cycle confidence, but higher equipment costs and financing sensitivity still argue for monitoring carrier financial health and replacement discipline.

Shippers should use this window to audit:

· Carrier fleet age and maintenance discipline
· Emissions compliance readiness for 2026–2027
· Balance-sheet strength and exposure to financing, insurance, and operating-cost volatility

Prioritizing carriers with stronger financial footing, reliable equipment, and clear compliance strategies can reduce disruption risk as capacity tightens.

Plan for Policy-Led and Capacity-Led Volatility in 2026

Regulatory timing and capacity conditions remain central to shipper planning. EPA 2027 may influence replacement timing, equipment costs, and procurement windows, while stronger freight rates and tighter capacity are already supporting renewed Class 8 demand.

Driver-related policy changes, FMCSA activity, fraudulent ELD removals, driver school closures, nondomiciled CDL rules, and Roadcheck-related tightening are also affecting available capacity. These signals matter because they may affect tender acceptance, lane reliability, routing guide depth, and transportation budget planning.

Potential ripple effects include:

· Higher spot exposure in tightening lanes
· More pressure on contract renewals as spot strength filters through
· Regional or equipment-specific service constraints
· Greater value in intermodal or dedicated capacity where network fit supports it

For shippers, the strategy remains preparation—not reaction.

Actions to take now:

· Scorecard carriers on regulatory readiness, fuel efficiency, and fleet modernization plans
· Build modal flexibility into core networks
· Add carrier redundancy in tightening lanes
· Incorporate fuel and capacity volatility into contract structures where appropriate

The market is no longer as oversupplied as it was through the prior cycle. Capacity is tightening, rate floors are rising, and service risk is becoming more lane-specific. Shippers that act during this transitional window will be better positioned to control costs and protect service continuity as 2026 progresses.