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Updated August 28, 2026

Market Update - Shippers

August 2026 Update

August Brings a Tighter and More Expensive Transportation Planning Environment for Shippers

ACT’s latest Freight Forecast shows constrained capacity and regulatory enforcement supporting sharply higher truckload rates, with spot-market strength moving more clearly into contract pricing. Dry van, reefer, and flatbed spot rates, excluding fuel, were 41% to 47% higher year over year in July, while aggregate contract rates increased 17%.

The market is not tight because freight demand has surged. ACT lowered its freight-volume outlook as higher interest rates, elevated fuel prices, slower job growth, and weak consumer fundamentals pressured demand. Private fleet contraction is shifting some freight back toward the for-hire market, but constrained equipment supply and regulatory enforcement remain the primary sources of cost and service pressure.

Driver availability has shown signs of stabilizing as higher pay attracts drivers and freight demand softens seasonally. Even so, the Class 8 tractor fleet remains smaller than a year ago, available equipment remains tight, and the supply response will require time.

For shippers, the third-quarter lull creates a planning window. Transportation teams that update cost assumptions, test routing-guide resilience, evaluate modal alternatives, and strengthen carrier commitments now will be better positioned when seasonality tightens again around the holidays.

Use Current Rate Movement to Benchmark and Rebuild Cost Models

Spot rates remain sharply higher year over year, and contract pricing is responding more quickly. Aggregate DAT contract rates, excluding fuel, increased eight cents in July to $2.50 per mile and were 17% above year-ago levels.

Aggregate spot rates remained five cents above contract rates on a nominal basis and two cents higher on a seasonally adjusted basis. Spot pricing above contract rates signals acute market tightness, although the spread is expected to widen as spot conditions ease seasonally and contract rates continue catching up.

From a procurement perspective, this is the time to reassess lane-level cost assumptions before higher contract pricing becomes more fully embedded in budgets. Shorter agreements and more frequent mini-bids have compressed the traditional lag between spot and contract rates, allowing transactional market changes to reach shipper pricing more quickly.

Shippers should monitor spot-contract spreads, tender acceptance, carrier availability, seasonal pressure, and how quickly pricing changes move into routing guides.

This is the right time to:

· Reassess cost-to-serve by lane and mode using updated labor, insurance, equipment, fuel, financing, and accessorial assumptions
· Reevaluate modal strategies where higher truckload rates improve intermodal or LTL competitiveness
· Rebuild primary and backup carrier coverage before holiday capacity becomes more difficult or expensive to secure
· Identify contracts or lanes where rapidly adjusting pricing could create budget exposure

The underlying tightening signals remain clear:

· Driver availability has improved modestly but remains constrained by regulatory enforcement
· The Class 8 tractor fleet remains smaller than a year ago
· Spot-market strength has moved into contract pricing
· Freight demand is improving selectively rather than accelerating broadly
· Private fleet contraction is returning some freight to the for-hire market
· Higher equipment costs and regulatory requirements are limiting the supply response

Rate moderation is underway during the third-quarter seasonal lull. However, shippers should not assume softer seasonal demand will restore the purchasing leverage available during the prior downcycle. The market continues to operate with substantially less supply flexibility.

Track Equipment Signals to Stay Ahead of Service Risk

Equipment conditions matter to shippers because carrier investment decisions affect fleet reliability, maintenance exposure, capacity quality, and replacement timing. ACT’s latest Classes 5–8 report shows North American Class 8 orders increased 71% year over year in July, with tractor orders rising 103%.

Orders declined 29% sequentially on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the decrease primarily reflected limited remaining 2026 build availability rather than a sudden weakening in fleet demand. ACT estimates that demand for the remaining production slots exceeds available capacity.

Class 8 backlogs ended July at 182,817 units, equal to approximately 8.9 months of production on a seasonally adjusted basis and well above the historical average. Third- and fourth-quarter build plans moved modestly lower as manufacturers assessed how quickly production could ramp.

Retail activity strengthened, with Class 8 sales increasing 1.5% year over year and tractor sales rising 8.2%. July marked the second consecutive month in which Class 8 sales exceeded estimated replacement demand, indicating that the equipment supply response is beginning.

For shippers, the improving order and retail environment may support longer-term equipment availability, but significant new capacity will not enter the market immediately. Much of the current purchasing is replacement-focused, while higher truck prices, financing costs, insurance expenses, and uneven broader freight demand continue to limit aggressive fleet expansion.

Transportation teams should use this window to audit:

· Carrier fleet age, maintenance discipline, and equipment reliability
· Replacement plans and access to new equipment
· Whether purchases represent replacement or actual capacity growth
· Regulatory and emissions readiness for 2027
· Balance-sheet strength and exposure to financing, insurance, labor, fuel, and operating-cost volatility
· Dependence on equipment types or lanes with limited backup capacity

Prioritizing carriers with reliable equipment, sound financial footing, and disciplined replacement strategies can reduce service disruption as the market evolves. Shippers should also monitor when higher tractor sales begin translating into measurable fleet growth, since that will affect future rate and capacity assumptions.

Plan for Policy-Led and Capacity-Led Volatility

Regulatory timing and capacity conditions remain central to transportation planning. The EPA’s proposed 2027 rule retains the underlying low-NOx technology requirements while introducing nonconformance penalties and potentially extending warranty and useful-life requirements to 2030.

The proposed penalty structure could produce a more staggered equipment transition than a traditional prebuy-and-payback cycle. Some manufacturers and fleets may use engines subject to nonconformance penalties, while others may accelerate replacement before equipment costs rise further. This creates uncertainty around equipment pricing, availability, order timing, and the speed of the capacity response.

Driver-related enforcement and compliance activity are also affecting available capacity. ELD-related enforcement, nondomiciled CDL removals, English-language proficiency requirements, driver-school constraints, and carrier-registration changes can influence tender acceptance, lane reliability, routing-guide depth, and transportation budgets even when freight demand remains uneven.

Potential ripple effects include:

· Greater spot exposure in tightening lanes and seasonal peaks
· More pressure on contract renewals as spot strength moves into bids
· Regional or equipment-specific service constraints
· Increased risk from relying on marginal or noncompliant capacity
· Greater value in intermodal, LTL, dedicated, or private-fleet alternatives where network fit supports them

Intermodal remains especially relevant. Available rail capacity and a historically large discount to truckload rates are supporting record-level volume potential. Shippers should identify suitable conversion lanes before higher utilization reduces available capacity or causes intermodal pricing to respond more fully.

For shippers, the strategy remains preparation—not reaction.

Actions to take now:

· Scorecard carriers on compliance readiness, financial strength, equipment reliability, and fleet modernization
· Build modal flexibility into core transportation networks
· Identify truckload lanes suitable for intermodal or LTL conversion
· Add carrier redundancy in tightening lanes and specialized equipment categories
· Incorporate fuel, capacity, and accessorial volatility into contract structures where appropriate
· Establish escalation thresholds for rejected tenders, deteriorating service, and rapidly changing spot exposure

The market is no longer operating with the excess capacity available during the prior downturn. Rates remain substantially higher, carrier leverage has improved, and service risk is becoming more lane- and equipment-specific. Seasonal pressure has eased, but structural constraints remain.

Shippers that strengthen routing guides, update transportation budgets, deepen carrier relationships, and build modal flexibility during this transitional window will be better positioned to control costs and protect service continuity through the second half of 2026 and into 2027.