Manufacturers

Manufacturers across North America trust ACT Research for accurate, timely, and actionable insights. Our data-driven approach provides a clear view of market dynamics, helping you anticipate shifts and capitalize on opportunities. Here’s how we support your business:

• Forecasting Precision: Predict future demand with confidence using our industry-leading forecasts for Class 8 and medium-duty trucks, trailers, and more.
• Market Analysis: Stay informed with detailed analysis of industry trends, production schedules, and market fluctuations.
• Production Optimization: Leverage our insights to fine-tune manufacturing schedules and adjust inventory based on real-time demand data.

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For 40 years, ACT Research has helped manufacturers turn industry change into opportunity. Whether you’re planning production for the next powertrain cycle or optimizing supply chains amid regulatory shifts, we deliver forecasting grounded in decades of insight. Different tools. Same mission: clarity in complexity

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Updated December 26, 2026

Manufacturers Face Mixed Signals as Orders Lag and Regulatory Uncertainty Persists

As 2026 begins, North American commercial vehicle manufacturers are navigating a market defined by conflicting signals: a sharp late-2025 rebound in Class 8 orders, continued weakness in underlying freight fundamentals, and rising confidence around regulatory structure—but not cost relief. While the December order surge improved sentiment temporarily, ACT Research’s January N.A. Commercial Vehicle Outlook confirms that demand visibility remains limited, with fleet behavior still anchored to replacement timing, cost containment, and balance-sheet preservation rather than growth.

Supply chains remain stable, and OEMs continue to report solid component availability and improved manufacturing consistency. However, quoting activity has become more selective, and order conversion rates remain uneven as fleets reassess capital plans following the year-end order volatility. Sales cycles remain elongated, and order visibility into mid-2026 remains compressed. OEM strategy continues to prioritize backlog quality, inventory discipline, and production flexibility over incremental volume, reflecting caution that the December order rebound may not translate into sustained demand.

Class 8 Orders Continue to Undershoot Expectations

December’s sharp rebound in Class 8 orders marked a notable inflection after months of underperformance, but January data reinforce ACT Research’s view that the move reflected deferred replacement decisions, regulatory clarification, and tactical catch-up rather than a true demand recovery. When viewed on a rolling basis, Class 8 orders entering 2026 remain well below historical seasonal norms and far short of levels associated with a growth cycle.

OEMs continue to manage production tightly around replacement-level demand. Build rates remain conservative, and manufacturers are carrying production restraint into early 2026 as inventories—particularly in vocational configurations—remain elevated and slow to correct. Tractor inventories have improved meaningfully, but non-tractor stock continues to weigh on scheduling decisions and dealer sentiment.

Fleet hesitation continues to be driven by:

• Persistently weak profitability, with public TL carriers still operating at recession-level margins

• Tariff-driven cost inflation, as §232 heavy-vehicle tariffs are fully embedded and now viewed as structural

• Regulatory cost certainty replacing uncertainty, confirming higher future price points

Cancellation rates remain relatively contained, suggesting fleets are largely honoring limited replacement commitments rather than retrenching. Long-haul tractor demand remains the softest segment, while vocational demand continues to show selective resilience tied to utilities, data centers, and municipal activity—though still well below prior-cycle peaks.

Prebuy Activity Remains Muted as Regulatory Clarity Improves—but Costs Rise

EPA 2027 clarity improved further entering January, reducing uncertainty around rule structure while confirming higher equipment costs ahead. Industry guidance continues to indicate that core low-NOx technology requirements will remain, while extended warranty and useful-life provisions are likely to be revised or removed. This shift has narrowed planning scenarios but reinforced expectations for materially higher sticker prices beginning in 2027.

Despite this clarity, prebuy activity remains restrained. January discussions indicate fleets are increasingly modeling scenarios rather than acting on them, constrained by weak margins, higher interest rates, and tighter credit conditions. Fleet decision-makers continue to seek greater confidence around:

• Final OEM pricing strategies and cost pass-through

• Certification timing and build slot availability

• Residual value implications for pre-2027 equipment

• Financing capacity amid elevated borrowing costs

Manufacturers remain in a heightened state of regulatory readiness—finalizing spec pathways, coordinating with suppliers, and maintaining scheduling flexibility—but orderbooks still show little evidence of broad-based prebuy acceleration. Improved clarity has changed planning conversations, but not purchasing behavior.

Medium-Duty and Vocational Segments Show Relative Stability

Compared to long-haul Class 8 tractors, medium-duty and vocational segments continue to offer relative stability entering 2026. Activity improved modestly late in 2025 and has held steadier into January, supported by municipal replacement cycles, utility work, and essential service distribution.

Key stabilizing drivers continue to include:

• Municipal and utility budget execution

• Food, beverage, and service-related distribution demand

• Infrastructure-, utility-, and data-center-linked vocational activity

That said, demand remains below historical norms, and inventories—particularly in medium-duty—remain elevated despite disciplined production. Body-builder throughput continues to be uneven across configurations, reinforcing OEM emphasis on spec discipline, lead-time management, and lifecycle value rather than price competition.

Outlook: A Strategic Reset Year Extends into 2026

December data reinforces that 2025 has remained a reset year for manufacturers—defined by discipline, flexibility, and margin protection rather than expansion. OEMs continue operating through the trough with a focus on cost control, backlog integrity, and agile output management.

Core imperatives for manufacturers heading into 2026 include:

Maintaining strict build alignment with replacement-level demand
Managing inventories conservatively to avoid speculative production
Preserving production flexibility as EPA 2027 specs and pricing solidify
Deepening fleet engagement to support cautious buyers and protect future pipelines

Until freight fundamentals improve more meaningfully and the benefits of capacity contraction translate into stronger carrier profitability, manufacturers are likely to remain in defensive mode. Those that protect margins, maintain flexibility, and strengthen fleet relationships during this slow cycle will be best positioned to capture demand quickly once confidence, clarity, and capital availability return.

Want to hear more from ACT Research? Analysts Lydia Vieth and Ann Rundle explain the current market and regulations, as well as their projections for future electric truck adoption, battery technologies, and beyond.

Where's the electric truck market headed now? (12:56 minute watch)

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