Manufacturers

Manufacturers across North America trust ACT Research for accurate, timely, and actionable insights. Our data-driven approach provides a clear view of market dynamics, helping you anticipate shifts and capitalize on opportunities. Here’s how we support your business:

• Forecasting Precision: Predict future demand with confidence using our industry-leading forecasts for Class 8 and medium-duty trucks, trailers, and more.
• Market Analysis: Stay informed with detailed analysis of industry trends, production schedules, and market fluctuations.
• Production Optimization: Leverage our insights to fine-tune manufacturing schedules and adjust inventory based on real-time demand data.

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For 40 years, ACT Research has helped manufacturers turn industry change into opportunity. Whether you’re planning production for the next powertrain cycle or optimizing supply chains amid regulatory shifts, we deliver forecasting grounded in decades of insight. Different tools. Same mission: clarity in complexity

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Updated November 21, 2025

Manufacturers Face Mixed Signals as Orders Lag and Regulatory Uncertainty Persists

With Class 8 orders still subdued, tariffs increasingly impacting pricing, and regulatory ambiguity stretching further into Q4, North American commercial vehicle manufacturers continue to navigate a landscape defined by soft demand visibility and cautious fleet behavior. ACT Research’s November NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK indicates that the industry remains dominated by below-replacement Class 8 order activity, fading pre-tariff momentum, and fleet customers focused on cost management and risk containment.

Supply chains remain stable, and OEMs report improved component flow, but quoting activity has slowed further and sales cycles have lengthened. Order visibility continues to shrink as fleets extend trade cycles and defer commitments. Across the industry, strategy has shifted decisively toward backlog quality, disciplined inventories, and flexible production scheduling.

Class 8 Orders Continue to Undershoot Expectations

Class 8 orders remained weak in October, extending the year-long trend of underperformance during what is traditionally the strongest booking period of the year. Fleets did not respond to typical seasonal cues, and OEMs are keeping production aligned to replacement-level demand while working inventories down—particularly in tractors, where retail sales fell below replacement levels for the first time since early 2024.

Fleet hesitation remains driven by:

• Margin pressure, with public TL carriers posting recession-like profitability for a fourth straight year

• Tariff-driven cost inflation, with new §232 heavy-vehicle duties raising equipment prices materially

• Regulatory ambiguity, as fleets await overdue EPA 2027 low-NOx guidance

ACT notes that although order activity is soft, cancellation rates remain low, indicating that fleets are holding firm on modest commitments but unwilling to add incremental capacity. Long-haul tractors remain the weakest segment, while vocational categories show only selective strength tied to infrastructure projects.

Prebuy Activity Remains on Hold as Regulatory Clarity Slips Further

EPA 2027 uncertainty remains the single largest barrier to fleet investment. As of November, EPA has not issued updated guidance on implementation timing, certification requirements, or warranty provisions. This absence of clarity has effectively frozen prebuy momentum.

Fleets continue to wait for resolution on:

• Final compliance expectations and enforcement timing

• Required system architecture and integration with in-use testing

• Available funding or incentive mechanisms

• Residual value implications for early-adopter units

Manufacturers have shifted into regulatory readiness mode—modeling potential specs, maintaining supplier flexibility, and preparing for rapid certification pivots—but orderbooks show no sign of prebuy acceleration. The prolonged uncertainty continues to distort replacement cycles, extending planning windows for OEMs and pushing major purchases further into 2026.

Medium-Duty and Vocational Segments Show More Stability

In contrast to Class 8 tractors, medium-duty and vocational segments continue to demonstrate relative steadiness. October activity showed modest sequential improvement, though overall demand remains below historical norms.

Key stabilizing drivers include:

• Ongoing municipal and utility budget cycles

• Food, beverage, and service distribution, which remain resilient

• Infrastructure-related vocational activity, which continues at a steady pace despite project delays

Medium-duty inventory remains elevated but is gradually correcting as OEMs maintain disciplined build schedules. Body-builder flow remains a bottleneck in some configurations, reinforcing the focus on spec optimization and lifecycle cost rather than price-driven competition.

Outlook: A Strategic Reset Year Continues

November data reinforces that 2025 remains a reset year, defined by discipline, not expansion. Manufacturers are operating through the trough with emphasis on cost control, backlog quality, and agile output adjustments.

Core imperatives for OEMs through year-end include:

• Maintaining strict build alignment with replacement-level demand

• Tightening inventory management and avoiding speculative production

• Preserving production flexibility as EPA 2027 guidance could reshape specs quickly

• Increasing customer engagement to support cautious fleets and build pipeline stability

Until EPA 2027 timelines are clarified and freight fundamentals strengthen, the industry’s best strategy remains operational discipline and readiness. The manufacturers who maintain flexibility, protect margins, and deepen fleet relationships in this slow cycle will be best positioned to capture demand rapidly once clarity and confidence return.

Want to hear more from ACT Research? Analysts Lydia Vieth and Ann Rundle explain the current market and regulations, as well as their projections for future electric truck adoption, battery technologies, and beyond.

Where's the electric truck market headed now? (12:56 minute watch)

Market Guidance for Dealers & Leasing Companies

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