Manufacturers

Manufacturers across North America trust ACT Research for accurate, timely, and actionable insights. Our data-driven approach provides a clear view of market dynamics, helping you anticipate shifts and capitalize on opportunities. Here’s how we support your business:

• Forecasting Precision: Predict future demand with confidence using our industry-leading forecasts for Class 8 and medium-duty trucks, trailers, and more.
• Market Analysis: Stay informed with detailed analysis of industry trends, production schedules, and market fluctuations.
• Production Optimization: Leverage our insights to fine-tune manufacturing schedules and adjust inventory based on real-time demand data.

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For 40 years, ACT Research has helped manufacturers turn industry change into opportunity. Whether you’re planning production for the next powertrain cycle or optimizing supply chains amid regulatory shifts, we deliver forecasting grounded in decades of insight. Different tools. Same mission: clarity in complexity

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Updated December 22, 2025

Manufacturers Face Mixed Signals as Orders Lag and Regulatory Uncertainty Persists

With Class 8 orders still deeply subdued, tariff-driven cost inflation now fully embedded in pricing, and regulatory clarity only partially improving late in the year, North American commercial vehicle manufacturers continue to operate in an environment defined by limited demand visibility and cautious fleet behavior. ACT Research’s December N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK confirms that the market remains dominated by below-replacement Class 8 order activity, full reversal of pre-tariff momentum, and fleet customers focused on cost control, liquidity, and risk management.

Supply chains remain stable, with OEMs reporting consistent component availability and fewer disruption risks. However, quoting activity has slowed further and sales cycles have lengthened meaningfully. Order visibility remains compressed as fleets extend trade cycles, delay discretionary purchases, and limit commitments to essential replacement. Across the industry, OEM strategy remains centered on backlog quality, disciplined inventory control, and flexible production scheduling rather than volume growth.

Class 8 Orders Continue to Undershoot Expectations

Class 8 orders remained sharply below seasonal norms through November, extending the year-long pattern of underperformance during what is typically the strongest ordering period of the year. The traditional year-end order surge failed to materialize, reinforcing OEM caution. Production continues to be managed tightly around replacement-level demand, with output cuts extending into Q4 and early 2026.

Fleet hesitation continues to be driven by:

• Recession-level margin pressure, with public TL carriers still reporting historically weak profitability

• Tariff-driven cost inflation, as §232 heavy-vehicle tariffs are now fully embedded in OEM pricing

• Regulatory cost uncertainty, even as EPA 2027 clarity improves modestly

ACT notes that cancellation rates remain relatively low, suggesting fleets are holding to limited replacement plans but remain unwilling to add incremental capacity. Long-haul tractor demand remains the weakest segment, while vocational demand shows selective resilience tied to utilities and infrastructure—but remains well below prior-cycle peaks.

Prebuy Activity Remains Muted as Regulatory Clarity Improves—but Costs Rise

EPA 2027 remains a critical influence on fleet behavior, though clarity improved modestly late in 2025. Industry communications now indicate that EPA intends to retain the technology components of the low-NOx rule while removing or revising extended warranty provisions. While this reduces uncertainty around compliance structure, it also confirms materially higher equipment prices beginning in 2027.

As a result, prebuy activity remains muted rather than accelerating. Fleets continue to seek clarity on:

• Final cost implications and pricing pass-through

• Certification timelines and production sequencing

• Residual value risk for pre-2027 equipment

• Financing availability amid higher sticker prices

Manufacturers remain in regulatory readiness mode—modeling alternative specs, maintaining supplier flexibility, and preparing for rapid certification adjustments—but orderbooks show no evidence of meaningful prebuy behavior. Weak fleet balance sheets and elevated borrowing costs continue to limit the industry’s ability to act aggressively even as clarity improves.

Medium-Duty and Vocational Segments Show Relative Stability

In contrast to long-haul Class 8 tractors, medium-duty and vocational segments continue to show relative stability into year-end. November activity showed modest improvement from earlier lows, though overall demand remains below historical norms.

Key stabilizing drivers include:

• Ongoing municipal and utility budget cycles

• Food, beverage, and service distribution demand

• Infrastructure- and utility-aligned vocational activity

Medium-duty inventories remain elevated but are gradually correcting as OEMs maintain disciplined production schedules. Body-builder throughput remains uneven in certain configurations, reinforcing OEM focus on spec optimization, lead-time management, and lifecycle value rather than price-based competition.

Outlook: A Strategic Reset Year Extends into 2026

December data reinforces that 2025 has remained a reset year for manufacturers—defined by discipline, flexibility, and margin protection rather than expansion. OEMs continue operating through the trough with a focus on cost control, backlog integrity, and agile output management.

Core imperatives for manufacturers heading into 2026 include:

• Maintaining strict build alignment with replacement-level demand

• Managing inventories conservatively to avoid speculative production

• Preserving production flexibility as EPA 2027 specs and pricing solidify

• Deepening fleet engagement to support cautious buyers and protect future pipelines

Until freight fundamentals improve more meaningfully and the benefits of capacity contraction translate into stronger carrier profitability, manufacturers are likely to remain in defensive mode. Those that protect margins, maintain flexibility, and strengthen fleet relationships during this slow cycle will be best positioned to capture demand quickly once confidence, clarity, and capital availability return.

Want to hear more from ACT Research? Analysts Lydia Vieth and Ann Rundle explain the current market and regulations, as well as their projections for future electric truck adoption, battery technologies, and beyond.

Where's the electric truck market headed now? (12:56 minute watch)

Market Guidance for Dealers & Leasing Companies

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