North America Commercial Vehicle Forecast

Navigate Uncertainty With Confidence

The commercial vehicle industry is shaped by constant change; shifting freight demand, economic cycles, regulatory updates, cost shocks, and evolving carrier and fleet behavior. In this environment, relying solely on historical trends or internal assumptions is no longer enough.

The ACT North America Commercial Vehicle Forecast gives you the clarity, confidence, and third-party validation you need to make decisions that stand up to scrutiny — in any market cycle.

Uncertainty Makes Planning Harder Than Ever

Across the commercial vehicle industry, decision-makers face the same challenges:

1. Regulatory and policy changes create cost uncertainty.

New emissions standards, evolving trade dynamics, and policy actions can materially impact equipment costs, lead times, and fleet replacement strategies.

2. Market signals are fragmented and inconsistent.

Economic indicators, freight metrics, OEM behavior, and inventory levels often conflict, making it difficult to see the true trend.

3. Internal assumptions need external validation.

Boards, investors, and executives increasingly expect independent, unbiased market intelligence to support major decisions.

When uncertainty rises, clarity becomes your competitive advantage.

ACT’s North America Commercial Vehicle Forecast

Your comprehensive, continuously updated, independently validated guide to the commercial vehicle market.

What You Get

✔ Monthly Forecast Report

A complete view of the market across Classes 4–8 and trailers, including:

• Retail sales and production forecasts

• Economic and freight environment analysis

• Carrier, shipper, and fleet behavior insights

• Policy and regulatory implications

• Market cycle indicators and trend interpretation

• Commentary written by ACT’s leading economists and analysts

✔ Quarterly & Five-Year Forecast Tables

Detailed, easy-to-use data tables covering:

• North America, U.S., Canada, and Mexico

• Production and retail sales forecasts

• Classes 4, 5–7, 8, and all major trailer categories

• Population and scrappage models by GVW and trailer type

✔ Insight on Key Industry Drivers

Our work tracks the forces that shape market performance across cycles, including:

• Freight economics and transportation sector trends

• Carrier profitability and capacity adjustments

• Macroeconomic indicators across NA (U.S., Canada, Mexico)

• Regulatory and emissions changes

• Trade and import/export dynamics

• Supply chain, inventory, and order-flow patterns
  

✔ Independent, Third-Party Validation

ACT Research is widely recognized as the industry’s authoritative forecasting source — trusted by OEMs, suppliers, fleets, dealers, financial institutions, and government agencies.

Not sure which forecast is right for your business?

Compare the options between the two solutions to see which best fits your business need.

The Value of an Independent Voice

Unbiased, Data-Driven Intelligence

No OEM, carrier, or political influence — just transparent, methodologically sound forecasting.

Decades of Proven Industry Leadership

ACT’s forecasting is consistently relied upon by the industry’s most sophisticated stakeholders.

Clarity You Can Use

We turn complex indicators, data flows, and macro forces into clear, practical guidance that supports better decisions.

Industry Recognition & Trust

Our work is cited in leading economic panels and industry publications and is recognized for its rigor and accuracy.

When the market sends mixed signals, ACT provides the signal that matters.

Who Uses This Forecast — And How It Helps Them

OEMs & Suppliers

Optimize production planning, improve supply chain alignment, manage inventory, and anticipate cycle turns.

Fleets & Logistics Providers

Time capital purchases, align network strategies with freight cycles, and prepare for regulatory or cost changes.

Dealers & Leasing Companies

Forecast retail demand, plan inventory levels, manage used equipment strategy, and price more confidently.

Banks, Lenders & Investors

Assess credit risk, model portfolio exposure, and make informed, forward-looking investment decisions.

Government & Policy Stakeholders

Understand the commercial vehicle environment and economic implications for public planning.

Each segment uses ACT forecasting differently — but all rely on its independence and clarity.