Freight Trucking Rates

Freight & Trucking Rate Update

October 2025

As of October 2025, the freight and trucking industry continues to work through a prolonged market correction shaped by tariff-driven cost inflation, regulatory uncertainty, and still-muted freight fundamentals. Temporary pre-tariff shipping lifted volumes briefly, but that activity is now reversing. With equipment demand falling sharply and capacity tightening unevenly, the industry remains in a fragile balance between low demand and constrained supply.

Below are the latest insights on dry van, flatbed, and reefer rates based on ACT Research’s October 2025 Freight Forecast report.

Spot Market Trends

Dry Van:
Dry van spot rates rose 1¢ m/m in September to $1.63 per mile, net fuel, up 2.5% y/y. DAT equipment postings were down 26% y/y, while load postings climbed 40% y/y, signaling early signs of capacity tightening. However, this is largely viewed as temporary pre-tariff activity, with retail inventories still being drawn down and no restocking wave yet visible. Rates remain below long-term seasonal norms, and pressure is expected to return once the tariff-driven shipping pull-forward fades.

Flatbed:
Flatbed spot rates increased 41% y/y in September but were unchanged m/m, maintaining near-term stability after modest summer gains. Much of the year-over-year strength reflects easy comparisons rather than real volume growth. Construction and heavy manufacturing freight remain sluggish, with infrastructure-related freight still limited by delayed federal disbursements. Capacity remains abundant, keeping flatbed rates capped.

Reefer:
Reefer spot rates climbed 9¢ m/m to $1.92 per mile, net fuel, in September—up 1.5% y/y and 13¢ seasonally adjusted m/m. The increase stemmed partly from pre-tariff shipping of perishable goods and tightening reefer equipment availability. Despite this, the broader market remains oversupplied, and post-harvest seasonality is expected to weigh on rates through year-end.

ACT Research September 2025 DAT Aggregate Spot Rates

Contract Rates

Dry Van:
Dry van contract rates held steady at $2.13 per mile, net fuel, in September—unchanged from August and 0.1% higher y/y. The spot/contract spread remained at 34¢, reflecting stabilization in both metrics. Shippers continue to maintain leverage in negotiations, and most 2026 bids are coming in within a 2–4% increase range, in line with ACT’s revised forecast.

Flatbed:
Flatbed contract rates remain soft, with continued y/y declines tied to weak industrial and manufacturing freight activity. Bid cycles are still favoring shippers, and OEM and dealer feedback points to ongoing pricing pressure. The near-term outlook calls for continued rate stagnation, with any recovery likely delayed until mid-2026 when capacity contraction gains traction.

Reefer:
Reefer contract rates were flat in September, continuing a pattern of stability despite rising maintenance and insurance costs for refrigerated assets. Shippers are using soft volumes to hold rates steady, and any upward movement will likely depend on sustained tightening in reefer-specific capacity later in 2026.

Summary

The freight market remains sluggish and oversupplied, with temporary pre-tariff demand now giving way to weaker fundamentals. Spot rates saw short-lived improvement over the summer but are again trending sideways, and contract rates continue to show little upward momentum across dry van, flatbed, and reefer segments.

Carriers are contending with rising input costs, policy uncertainty, and muted freight demand. Most fleets continue to focus on cost control, extending trade cycles, and maintaining operational flexibility. Unless the Supreme Court overturns the new 232 heavy truck tariffs or the 2027 emissions timeline is clarified, the freight rate environment is expected to remain defensive well into 2026.

To see how freight trucking rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.