Freight Trucking Rates

Freight & Trucking Rate Update

November 2025

As of November 2025, the freight and trucking industry continues to work through a prolonged correction shaped by soft freight volumes, fading pre-tariff activity, and renewed rate pressure. The temporary lift from mid-year tariff pull-forward has fully reversed, and the market has returned to a slow-demand environment with ample capacity. Spot rates softened again in early November as capacity re-entered the market and load-posting activity normalized.

Equipment demand remains weak—Class 8 order activity underperformed again in October—and uneven capacity tightening has kept rate pressure largely one-sided. ACT Research’s latest November Freight Forecast shows the market still locked in a fragile balance, with freight fundamentals unlikely to meaningfully strengthen until mid-2026.

Below are the latest insights on dry van, flatbed, and reefer rates based on ACT Research’s November 2025 Freight Forecast.

Spot Market Trends

Dry Van

Dry van spot rates softened again in early November as pre-tariff effects faded and capacity returned to the market. October’s temporary firming proved short-lived, and rates have reverted toward their late-summer baseline. Load postings pulled back, equipment postings increased, and the load-to-truck ratio settled into a neutral range.

Rates remain below seasonal norms, with little upward momentum expected until sustained capacity contraction takes hold in 2026.

Flatbed

Flatbed spot rates held steady into November after modest seasonal improvement in October. Year-ago comparisons continue to exaggerate strength, while real underlying demand remains soft. Construction, manufactured goods, and heavy-equipment freight all remain sluggish, and infrastructure-related freight—while stable—remains insufficient to drive meaningful rate acceleration.

Flatbed capacity remains abundant, keeping rate ceilings low.

Reefer

Reefer spot rates eased in early November after tightening briefly in October on pre-tariff produce and perishables movement. Seasonal cooling, weaker volume throughput, and rising equipment availability have returned the market to oversupplied conditions.

ACT continues to expect softer reefer pricing through year-end, with limited upside until late-2026 as reefer capacity gradually normalizes.

Contract Rates

Dry Van

Dry van contract rates remained stable in November. The spot/contract spread widened slightly as spot rates weakened again, reinforcing shippers’ strong negotiating position. Early 2026 bid cycles continue to point to only low-single-digit adjustments, with most awards falling in line with ACT’s November rate forecast.

Contractual leverage remains firmly with shippers.

Flatbed

Flatbed contract rates remained soft and continue to trend below year-ago levels. Industrial and manufacturing weakness remains the primary drag, with private construction still subdued. Rate momentum remains limited and is unlikely to improve meaningfully until freight fundamentals strengthen later in 2026.

Reefer

Reefer contract rates held steady in November. While refrigerated fleets face rising insurance, maintenance, and compliance costs, shippers continue to leverage slow volumes to maintain flat contract structures. Upward rate movement will require sustained tightening in reefer-specific capacity—unlikely before mid-2026.

Summary

The freight market remains sluggish and oversupplied, with the brief pre-tariff bump now fully unwound. Spot rates have slipped again, contract rates remain flat, and neither segment shows signs of sustained upward pressure.

Carriers continue to manage through rising input costs, tariff-driven equipment inflation, and weak freight fundamentals. Many are extending trade cycles, reducing capital spending, and prioritizing operational efficiency to preserve margin.

Unless the Supreme Court intervenes on tariff authority or EPA 2027 guidance is clarified, ACT Research expects the freight rate environment to remain defensive well into 2026, with meaningful recovery dependent on capacity contraction and a broader demand rebound.

To see how freight trucking rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.