ACT Research’s recently released decarbonization forecast, North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus, incorporates expected advancements in zero-emission technologies of battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) as an alternative decarbonization technology.
“Regulations have typically been a driving force for the adoption of decarbonization solutions; upcoming reductions in regulatory stringency will significantly impact deployment of decarbonization solutions, particularly in the earlier years of our forecast,” according to Lydia Vieth, ACT’s Research Analyst, Electrification & Autonomy. “Whether the administration fully repeals, modifies, or delays key regulations, the impact on equipment decisions, fleet planning, and operational costs will be significant.”
Regulations that require lower emissions have been the greatest influence on decarbonization, and as those regulations change, or are revoked, ACT Research expects to see corresponding changes in adoption of zero-emission CVs.
“Our forecast assumes the two key regulations that have been in place for some years: CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) went live in California at the start of 2024 and beginning in 2027 the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) low-NOx regulations go into effect, will continue to prevail for now in some measure,” Ann Rundle, ACT’s VP, Electrification & Autonomy, added. “ACT Research continues to develop and refine decarbonization forecasting models that detail specific vehicle applications for medium duty (MD), heavy duty (HD), and bus market segments. Our forecasting methodology incorporates a bottom-up, apples-to-apples cost-modeling approach, considering all costs, including infrastructure. This TCO-based approach allows us to compare the full impact of life-cycle costs between competing powertrain technologies across the commercial vehicle population.”
ACT Research’s forecasting solutions, the standard NA CV OUTLOOK and the new OUTLOOK Plus, provide a complete overview of the North American commercial vehicle and transportation market, forecasting Classes 4-8 vehicles and commercial trailers to support industry players as they plan, budget, implement their go-to-market strategy, and utilize third-party insights to guide strategic decisions. Diving deep into relevant demand drivers like regulations and consumer demand, and pivoting on current market activity, the reports highlight a unit forecast across trailers and medium and heavy-duty segments, including powertrain splits (diesel, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and natural gas).
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
The adoption rates for zero-emission and decarbonization vehicles will reach 25% by 2030 and 50% by 2040. Regulations are a key factor in the earlier years, particularly for higher GVW applications, while many lower GVW applications already provide a better total cost of ownership (TCO) today.
“We forecast a relatively low adoption rate from 2024 through 2026, reflecting the fact that BEV sales of commercial vehicles are still in their early years,” noted Ann Rundle, Vice President of Electrification & Autonomy with ACT Research. “This begins to change in 2027, in part due to the cost increases for diesels because of the increased stringency of US EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. In addition, by 2027, eight states will have joined California in adopting Advanced Clean Trucks, resulting in moderate growth in adoption rates.”
By 2030 ACT Research is forecasting 25% adoption rates, as by then the remaining nine states that signed the MOU to adopt CARB Advanced Clean Trucks will have enacted those regulations. Additionally, it is assumed that improved battery technology will negate battery replacement costs, and charging infrastructure utilization will significantly increase, decreasing those costs in the TCO.
Rundle concluded, “By 2040 we are forecasting that adoption of ZEVs will account for just slightly above 50%—essentially half of all CVs will be zero emissions, primarily BEVs.”
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