With 2026 orderboards opening this month, the next three-to-four months of Class 8 orders will be critical for 2026, but uncertainty abounds, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“On the tractor front, carrier profitability remains under pressure, inching closer to year four of the for-hire market downturn. The group of publicly traded TL carriers’ aggregated margins in Q2 were near 2008 recession levels, and the frontloading of goods ahead of tariffs in 1H of this year elevates the risk of a freight air pocket into the end of 2025,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Additionally, while the US consumer has remained resilient, signs of labor market weakness, and the fact that the full brunt of tariff costs has yet to be passed on to the consumer, are further risks to goods demand.”
“On the vocational side, a trio of headwinds has greatly reduced demand. First, the EPA’s March “review” announcement quickly ended vocational prebuying ahead of EPA’27, with many fleets believing that EPA’27 low NOx regulations ceased to be a future concern,” Vieth added. “On top of regulatory matters, there are funding freezes delaying infrastructure project starts, despite Congress having already appropriated the funding. Lastly, deepening softness in housing and a construction pullback, solid freight generating segments, adds to vocational woes. Currently, elevated new home inventories are an added obstacle to recovery.”
“Vocational inventories are just off record levels, and backlogs are currently at five-year lows. Steep production cuts have already occurred to help alleviate backlog pressure, but elevated inventory remains a challenge for future production,” he concluded.
NA CV Forecast Report Overview
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Owing to myriad negative factors, ACT Research continues to pull back on out-year expectations. Weak carrier profitability and still tractionless freight rates, expected tariff-driven goods inflation, a freight air pocket likely following the goods pull-forward in 1H’25, and uncertainty surrounding US economic policy and the status of the EPA’s low NOx Clean Truck regulation, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“This is the time of the year that heavy truck orders are weak. That seasonal weakness has been compounded by the aftershocks of April’s tariff and policy announcements, which continue to reverberate. Policy uncertainty coupled with still weak for-hire rate and profitability fundamentals, have exacerbated that seasonal order weakness,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Using June data, the tractor order trends for the past 12m, 6m SAAR, and 3m SAAR are 176k, 129k, and 97k, respectively.”
Despite front-end order weakness, tractor sales have remained firm, rising since the onset of tariffs, as companies seek to take advantage of tariff-free equipment in inventory. With tariff-free inventory increasingly consumed, retail sales are expected to cool in the coming months as prices move higher.
Regarding vocational demand, Vieth added, “Much like the tractor market, vocational orders continue to trend lower, with the 12m, 6m SAAR, and 3m SAAR order levels at 86k, 60k, and 54k units, respectively.”
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