Uncertainty continues as the commercial vehicle industry waits to see how US policy will impact freight markets, and whether the president will keep Biden-era stimulus plans in place, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Per preliminary March order data, a pause in order activity can be seen in MD Classes 5-7 and HD Class 8 orders, both of which saw order rates below a 200k-unit SAAR,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “In December, the six-month Class 8 orders average ran at a 321,000-unit SAAR. In Q1’25, orders were booked at a 224,000 SAAR. While Class 8 orders ended 2024 on a reasonably strong note, the same could not be said for trailers or MD vehicles.”
Vieth added, “MD Classes 5-7 were weakening into late 2024, continuing to flag in early 2025. After orders were booked at a weak 210,000 SAAR in 2H’24, orders weakened further in Q1, falling to a 189,000 SAAR. Trailer orders have somewhat bucked the trend in early 2025 through February. Though, the trend has moved from horrible to bad. In 2H’24, US trailer orders were booked at a 152,000-unit SAAR. The first two months of 2025 saw the trend creep up to a 222,000-unit annualized rate, roughly in line with US industry replacement levels.”
“Broadly, amid uncertainty akin to the early months of the pandemic, the economy, and by extension commercial vehicle demand, are at a crossroads, or perhaps better, in the crosshairs of bad policy,” he concluded.
NA CV Forecast Report Overview
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
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ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
After the strong end to 2024, with Class 8 orders booked at a 357k SAAR in Q4, the past two months have largely been defined by trade and economic policy uncertainty, which have thrown a wrench into business planning, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity, a response to the newfound uncertainty, or both remains an open question,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Preliminary Class 8 orders dropped 34% y/y to 18,300 units in February. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 28% from January to 16,700 units, and a 200k unit SAAR—the lowest SA Class 8 order volume in nearly two years.”
Vieth added, “With the tractor market already at a low ebb, tariffs are starting to weigh on business decision making, reducing early-in-the-year economic expectations. In addition to uncertainty leading to corporate indecision, the apparent policy path is likely to weigh on key US Class 8 market indicators including freight volumes and by extension, freight rates, consumer spending and sentiment.”
“In addition to possibly seeing some production moved back to the US, the industry is likely racing to add as much inventory as they can before tariffs are fully enacted. Hence, while we cut our forecasts and lower 2025 expectations, tariffs and the threat of more to come are actually boosting activity in the near term. As is always the case with pulling activity forward, there are paybacks,” he concluded.
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