According to ACT Research’s latest North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK released in November, Class 8 preliminary orders in October totaled 13,500 units, down 45% year-over-year, as persistent cost pressures and regulatory uncertainty continue to weigh on fleet investment decisions. Meanwhile, US trailer net orders surged to 18,000 units, up 75% month-over-month on a nominal basis, signaling renewed urgency among carriers to secure equipment ahead of anticipated supply chain bottlenecks and price increases.
The report highlights that while the North American economy remains resilient, with private domestic demand reaching its strongest growth rate in over three years, ongoing tariffs, elevated energy prices, and rising interest rates are constraining both household purchasing power and business margins. “The current environment is defined by a collision of rising input costs and regulatory headwinds,” said Carter Vieth, ACT’s Research Analyst. “For Class 8, order activity has softened as carriers navigate higher equipment prices, uncertainty around the EPA’s 2027 mandate, and the lingering effects of last year’s tariffs. Despite these challenges, carrier profitability is gradually improving, and we expect fleets will need to resume investment as underlying demand remains fundamentally sound.”
Vieth added, “In the trailer segment, the story is increasingly about supply chain stress. Carriers are moving quickly to place orders, not just to meet demand, but to get ahead of potential shortages in materials and labor. The domestic trailer industry is facing untested supply chain capacity, and any delays or cost increases could further lengthen production queues. The challenge for the industry will be meeting this renewed demand without exacerbating backlogs or inflating costs for buyers.”
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ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
According to ACT Research’s latest North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK released in October, Class 8 preliminary orders in September totaled 18,700 units, down 9.5% year-over-year, as regulatory uncertainty and supply chain challenges continue to cloud fleet planning and equipment demand. Meanwhile, US trailer net orders surged more than 55% month-over-month, with orders up 40% year-to-date through August, signaling renewed momentum as 2027 orderboards open early.
The economy story is mixed. While underlying private domestic demand in the US economy reached its strongest growth rate in over three years in Q2’26, persistent shocks from tariffs, elevated energy prices, and rising interest rates are constraining purchasing power and raising business costs. AI-driven investment and a resilient manufacturing sector are offsetting continued weakness in housing, but higher borrowing costs and supply chain disruptions are tempering demand for capital goods.
“Fleets are eager to replace aging equipment and prepare for anticipated cost increases, but the ability to plan remains hampered by economic and regulatory uncertainty as well, at least into the medium-term, the evolving supply chain landscape,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “The recent decline in Class 8 orders in part reflects not only these headwinds, but materially higher backlogs now than at this time last year, and the impact of uncertainty around the final EPA’27 rule. Rather than a sudden drop in underlying demand, in the case of Class 8, fleets weigh their options in a shifting market.”
Vieth added, “In the trailer segment, strong order activity is encouraging, but the next test will be the industry’s ability to ramp production quickly into a rising demand environment. Many new suppliers, brought in to navigate around recent tariffs, remain untested at scale, and shortages of key materials like steel and aluminum are emerging. The challenge ahead will be matching production capacity with rising demand amid ongoing cost pressures.”
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