Tariffs continue to sow uncertainty in commercial vehicle markets, and even if relief is granted in the form of the Supreme Court reiterating Congress’s power of the purse regarding IEEPA tariffs, damage in the short term has already been done, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“The initial tariff roll out in April sparked a mini-prebuy and pushed Class 8 tractor retail sales above replacement levels, further prolonging the longest for-hire downturn in recent memory,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “On top of the IEEPA tariffs, the trucking industry is contending with the new §232 tariffs, a 25% levy on the value of foreign content in imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses. Seeing as we are nearing YEAR 4 of generationally low carrier profits, and freight rates remain sluggish, the sudden and onerous cost increase will reduce already weak new US vehicle demand, at a time when backlog cushions should be accumulating.”
“Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short to medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and emissions regulations. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads, and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run,” Vieth added.
The list of 2026 demand headwinds is long:
- Freight rates and for-hire carrier profits remain mired at recessionary levels,
- a freight air-pocket happening now that follows an extended tariff-avoiding freight pull-forward,
- accelerating tariff-driven goods inflation that will weigh on freight volumes,
- a pullback by private fleets after significant fleet expansion in 2023-2024,
- specific uncertainty surrounding EPA’27,
- and macro-level uncertainty around US economic policy.
Tariffs boosting new vehicle prices on top of recession-level market conditions are just one more obstacle in an already obstacle-strewn 2026 demand outlook.
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
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ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
The ongoing trade war and regulatory limbo continue to weigh on the for-hire market recovery, and by extension, tractor demand, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“For for-hire carriers, still managing the longest downturn in recent history, initial tariffs in 1H did two things: 1) Temporarily pushed retail sales above replacement levels, stalling a necessary capacity contraction and prolonging a rate recovery; and 2) 1H’s large macro demand pull-forward has elevated the risk of weaker goods demand in 2H, potentially prolonging the path to recovery,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst.
“Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and emissions regulations,” Vieth added. “Also, softness in end markets like housing are not helpful. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads, and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run.”
“With freight rates remaining at low levels, a potential freight air-pocket inbound after a large goods pull-forward, tariff-driven goods inflation inbound, a pullback by private fleets after their significant 2023-2024 market share grab, uncertainty surrounding EPA’27, and ongoing uncertainty around US economic policy, there is little evidence to support a more constructive 2026 outlook. Additionally, the newly announced §232 tariffs on imported heavy trucks adds to uncertainty in the short term,” he concluded.
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