The ongoing trade war and regulatory limbo continue to weigh on the for-hire market recovery, and by extension, tractor demand, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“For for-hire carriers, still managing the longest downturn in recent history, initial tariffs in 1H did two things: 1) Temporarily pushed retail sales above replacement levels, stalling a necessary capacity contraction and prolonging a rate recovery; and 2) 1H’s large macro demand pull-forward has elevated the risk of weaker goods demand in 2H, potentially prolonging the path to recovery,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst.
“Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and emissions regulations,” Vieth added. “Also, softness in end markets like housing are not helpful. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads, and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run.”
“With freight rates remaining at low levels, a potential freight air-pocket inbound after a large goods pull-forward, tariff-driven goods inflation inbound, a pullback by private fleets after their significant 2023-2024 market share grab, uncertainty surrounding EPA’27, and ongoing uncertainty around US economic policy, there is little evidence to support a more constructive 2026 outlook. Additionally, the newly announced §232 tariffs on imported heavy trucks adds to uncertainty in the short term,” he concluded.
NA CV Forecast Report Overview
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
With 2026 orderboards opening this month, the next three-to-four months of Class 8 orders will be critical for 2026, but uncertainty abounds, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“On the tractor front, carrier profitability remains under pressure, inching closer to year four of the for-hire market downturn. The group of publicly traded TL carriers’ aggregated margins in Q2 were near 2008 recession levels, and the frontloading of goods ahead of tariffs in 1H of this year elevates the risk of a freight air pocket into the end of 2025,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Additionally, while the US consumer has remained resilient, signs of labor market weakness, and the fact that the full brunt of tariff costs has yet to be passed on to the consumer, are further risks to goods demand.”
“On the vocational side, a trio of headwinds has greatly reduced demand. First, the EPA’s March “review” announcement quickly ended vocational prebuying ahead of EPA’27, with many fleets believing that EPA’27 low NOx regulations ceased to be a future concern,” Vieth added. “On top of regulatory matters, there are funding freezes delaying infrastructure project starts, despite Congress having already appropriated the funding. Lastly, deepening softness in housing and a construction pullback, solid freight generating segments, adds to vocational woes. Currently, elevated new home inventories are an added obstacle to recovery.”
“Vocational inventories are just off record levels, and backlogs are currently at five-year lows. Steep production cuts have already occurred to help alleviate backlog pressure, but elevated inventory remains a challenge for future production,” he concluded.
Click here to learn more information about ACT's most subscribed report.
ACT Research is featured regularly by major news outlets for our work covering Class 8 truck orders, sales, forecasting, used truck sales, freight rates, trailer sales, and much more. Get more trends, HERE.
Save time with ACT Research’s media kit. Access ACT Research’s analyst bio, logos, press releases, video library, and more at your convenience. Our analysts are committed to delivering the most accurate data and forecasts. Looking for a speaker? Each analyst is available to speak at your conference or event. Access Media Kit Here.
