With actual economic activity and freight market metrics generally in line with expectations, ACT Research’s latest North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK leaves both the Classes 5-7 and Class 8 forecasts unchanged in September, while the trailer forecast was reduced incrementally on perceived supply chain ramp challenges.
The current freight cycle continues to be defined by capacity constraints, with industry conversations highlighting ongoing supply-side challenges driven by the impact of regulatory and judicial changes. While demand for new equipment remains fundamentally supported by improving carrier profitability and pent-up replacement needs, the immediate challenge is the industry’s ability to ramp production, which is occurring now in the Class 8 market, but also particularly for trailers as the 2027 capex planning cycle begins.
“Supply-side constraints remain the defining feature of this cycle to date, even as carrier profitability improves and replacement demand builds,” said Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “With Class 8 backlogs long and the industry working through the ‘growing pains’ of ramping production, the outlook for new equipment demand is healthy but increasingly dependent on how quickly supply chains and manufacturing tiers can respond.”
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ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
New equipment demand continues to be buoyed by materially improved spot and contract rates, driven largely by the rapid shift in driver supply, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Class 8 orders remained robust in June, with preliminary NA orders totaling 31,400 units, bucking typical summer seasonality and rising 231% y/y. Strong orders this month, adding to an already full Class 8 backlog, suggest either higher than expected industry builds into yearend or some orders getting pushed into 1H’27,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Driving the turnaround in Class 8 order activity since December has been the ongoing supply-lead and demand-supported recovery in the trucking industry. As we often say: Truckers only buy trucks when they’re making money.
Between the FMCSA’s nondomiciled driver crackdown, new carrier registration rules, ELD loophole closures, the closing of CDL mills, the Supreme Court Montgomery case ruling, an ageing driver cohort, and the administration’s broad immigration crackdown, the trucking industry’s driver supply is under a multi-front attack. On top of the growing driver supply squeeze, the industrial rebound is boosting freight volumes. As a result, aggregate DAT spot rates rose to above 50% y/y at the beginning of July, bolstering truckload contract rates.”
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth concluded, “The AI/utility infrastructure buildout remains red hot, with investment in the US in 2026 flowing at a rate between $12.5–$15 billion per week. Flatbed, as evidenced by current record spot and contract rates, has been the primary beneficiary of tech’s largesse amongst trucking segments. AI/utility tailwinds are expected to carry into 2027, but political and local backlash to projects may slow growth marginally in 2027.”
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