After a largely lethargic year for orders in 2025, recent improvement in Class 8 order activity suggests optimism is growing for 2026. In our view, the recent shift hinges primarily on three factors, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“First, the economy continues to exceed expectations, growing 4.4% q/q in Q3’25. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow expects 4.2% growth in Q4,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “AI- and wealth-driven economic growth helped to absorb overcapacity into the end of 2025, and the economy appears to have good momentum into early 2026. Looking forward, the high likelihood the Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional may lead to an inventory restock, further bolstering for-hire volumes.”
Vieth added, “Second, following nearly three years of stagnant freight rates, successive winter storms across the Midwest in December and January caused aggregate DAT spot rates to surge 17% y/y in January. DAT’s load-to-truck ratio rose from 5 in November to just above 9 at the end of last month. The run-up in rates has likely given deep-pocketed large fleets confidence that the improving supply-demand balance will allow some of the early 2026 freight rate spike to stick beyond recent bad weather impacts.”
“Lastly,” he continued, “part of the recent order uptick has been attributable to clarity around the EPA’s Clean Truck low NOx rule after months of crickets following the EPA’s ‘review’ announcement last March. With fleets aging, and new engine technologies expected at the start of 2027, better economic growth and improving rates support some prebuying ahead of the coming mandate.”
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth concluded, “With the biggest four technology companies in the US set to deploy an astronomical $650 billion in capital toward data centers and associated AI investments in 2026, vocational appears poised to continue benefitting from strong secular tailwinds that show no signs of slowing in the short term.”
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
After a 2025 mired in stagnant freight rates and beset by regulatory and policy uncertainty, 2026 begins with signs of cautious optimism for tractor and vocational markets, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Firstly, the economy, aided by AI tailwinds, continues to outperform expectations, with GDP rising 4.3% in Q3. Crucially for the trucking industry, consumer spending remains robust, accounting for more than half of Q3 GDP growth,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Though concerns about the balance of growth persist, as wealthy households are behind most of the spending.”
Vieth added, “Secondly, spot rates surged through November and December, helped by resilient consumer spending, severe weather, and a quickening of capacity contractions. Though much of the gains are likely to reverse if January weather continues to warm.”
“Lastly, EPA’s mid-November announcement regarding EPA’27 added much needed regulatory clarity, and based on December’s preliminary orders, likely drove some decision making. ACT’s preliminary look at December data shows NA Class 8 net orders totaled 42,700 units, up 16% y/y,” he continued. “In addition to regulatory pressures aiding demand, an increasingly older fleet should facilitate some additional replacement demand in 2026.”
“Like the tractor market, the vocational market was caught in regulatory and policy headwinds throughout 2025, but appears poised for a better-than-previously-expected 2026,” Vieth concluded.
Click here to learn more information about ACT's most subscribed report.
ACT Research is featured regularly by major news outlets for our work covering Class 8 truck orders, sales, forecasting, used truck sales, freight rates, trailer sales, and much more. Get more trends, HERE.
Save time with ACT Research’s media kit. Access ACT Research’s analyst bio, logos, press releases, video library, and more at your convenience. Our analysts are committed to delivering the most accurate data and forecasts. Looking for a speaker? Each analyst is available to speak at your conference or event. Access Media Kit Here.
