Demand for new equipment remains strong, buoyed by meaningfully improved freight rates. Initially driven by severe contractions in the driver supply following four years of trucking overcapacity, the Supreme Court’s Montgomery decision relating to broker liability, stricter ELD/HOS rule enforcement, and new carrier registration rules have added to supply constraints and rate momentum. The recovery in US manufacturing and ongoing data center and utility buildout has aided the demand side of the equation, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Underlining the robustness of the current demand environment has been the backlog boosting surge in tractor orders that began last December. Year-ago August tractor order backlogs fell to a nearly 13-year low. In our latest industry data, June-ending order backlogs were more than double year-ago levels,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “While the front-end market metrics have maxed out available 2026 capacity, tractor sales remained below replacement levels in 1H’26, as industry OEMs and suppliers work to bring more production capacity online. The rebound in tractor demand follows the four-year drop in profitability that culminated in generationally low carrier profit margins in 2025.”
Vieth concluded, “Many of the capacity constraints will persist and worsen, but the easing in freight demand seasonality in Q3 should temporarily take some of the pressure off capacity. Higher rates and driver pay will begin to offset these constraints, but the supply-side challenges for the industry are extraordinary as we move further into this new upcycle.”
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
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ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
New equipment demand continues to be buoyed by materially improved spot and contract rates, driven largely by the rapid shift in driver supply, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Class 8 orders remained robust in June, with preliminary NA orders totaling 31,400 units, bucking typical summer seasonality and rising 231% y/y. Strong orders this month, adding to an already full Class 8 backlog, suggest either higher than expected industry builds into yearend or some orders getting pushed into 1H’27,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Driving the turnaround in Class 8 order activity since December has been the ongoing supply-lead and demand-supported recovery in the trucking industry. As we often say: Truckers only buy trucks when they’re making money.
Between the FMCSA’s nondomiciled driver crackdown, new carrier registration rules, ELD loophole closures, the closing of CDL mills, the Supreme Court Montgomery case ruling, an ageing driver cohort, and the administration’s broad immigration crackdown, the trucking industry’s driver supply is under a multi-front attack. On top of the growing driver supply squeeze, the industrial rebound is boosting freight volumes. As a result, aggregate DAT spot rates rose to above 50% y/y at the beginning of July, bolstering truckload contract rates.”
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth concluded, “The AI/utility infrastructure buildout remains red hot, with investment in the US in 2026 flowing at a rate between $12.5–$15 billion per week. Flatbed, as evidenced by current record spot and contract rates, has been the primary beneficiary of tech’s largesse amongst trucking segments. AI/utility tailwinds are expected to carry into 2027, but political and local backlash to projects may slow growth marginally in 2027.”
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