Class 8 preliminary orders in August totaled 16,800 units (19.6k SA), up 31% y/y on easy, tariff and carrier profitability impacted comps at this time last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, preliminary net orders retreated 35% m/m, but as we’ve consistently noted the past few months, weak orders do not necessarily mean weak demand. Rather, orders are running into oversubscribed 2026 backlogs and the corresponding 2026 build slot availability. To emphasize the point, July ending data showed 2H’26 backlogs oversubscribed by ~35k units. There just isn’t room. Additionally, weak seasonality is a factor this month, as orders are typically slow in August just before OEMs open next year’s orderboards in September.
"Demand for new equipment remains strong, supported by meaningfully improved freight rates," shared Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. "While largely driven by severe contractions in the driver supply earlier this year, the Montgomery SCOTUS decision, stricter ELD/HOS rule enforcement, and new carrier registration rules have also added to supply constraints and rate improvement through 2026. Despite freight volume headwinds driven by weakness in housing and K-shaped consumer spending, the recovery in US manufacturing and the datacenter/utility buildout are marginally aiding the demand side of the freight equation." Vieth continued, "Q2 earnings from the publicly traded group of TL carriers highlight the fleets’ profitability recovery, with aggregate net profit margins hitting a nearly-three-year high in Q2."
Preliminary Classes 5-7 orders rose 37% y/y, to 20,00 units (20.5k SA) in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, medium-duty orders have remained north of 20,000-unit levels the past four months, a marked improvement from the 16,000-unit order trend at the beginning of 2026. The timing of the order improvement suggests customers and dealers are working to get ahead of 2027 regulations, but the US’s ongoing economic resilience, despite inflationary headwinds, is likely another factor supporting higher order levels.
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 22,562 units in July, up 71% year-over-year but down 29% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report. The sequential decline reflects not a drop in demand, but the impact of full 2026 build slots, with remaining production capacity for the year oversubscribed by 35,000 units.
“Robust demand for new equipment continues, supported by improved spot and contract rates, as evidenced by the recent earnings strength among publicly traded truckload carriers,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “While ongoing EPA uncertainty could influence the coming order ramp, carrier profitability is rising quickly, and freight conditions are improving across the board.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 31,751
Classes 5-7:
Net Orders: 21,122
Click here to learn more information about ACT's State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Vehicles data.
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