ACT Research recently wrapped up Seminar 73, where industry experts gathered to discuss the challenges and outlook for transportation and commercial vehicles. The seminar spotlighted ongoing market headwinds, labor concerns, and truck supply cycles.
Ken Vieth, President & Senior Analyst, and Jim Meil, Principal, Industry Analysis of ACT Research, sat down to chat about what we heard at Market Vitals Seminar 73.
📹Watch the full conversation between Ken and Jim below.
Key Takeaways and Updated Insights:
1. Tariffs and Inflationary Pressures
A recurring theme was tariffs. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imports are raising costs across the board, fueling goods inflation. When everything costs more, consumers buy less—which translates directly into fewer goods to move. For a freight industry already struggling with oversupply, this only deepens the pain.
2. Freight Recession: Still Flat
The freight recession has dragged on for over three years, and speakers agreed conditions remain stubbornly flat. As Jim Meil of ACT Research noted, “flat unfortunately for about as far as the eye can see.” Some expressed concern that whenever recovery arrives, the industry may struggle to respond quickly enough, repeating the bottlenecks of 2021.
3. Labor Tightness
Labor remains a long-term concern. Past reliance on immigrant workers and looser hiring practices kept fleets staffed. Today, tighter immigration policies and an already limited labor pool raise the risk of wage inflation when demand finally returns.
4. A "New Normal"
Speakers also raised the possibility that grinding mediocrity may become the new normal without significant capacity reductions. Historically, downturns forced capacity out of the market, setting the stage for profitability rebounds. Whether that kind of reset happens this time is unclear.
5. Looking Forward
Despite current challenges, the cycle will eventually turn. As one speaker put it, “the cure for low prices is low prices.” For now, the focus is on cost discipline, efficiency, and readiness for when demand improves.
Seminar 73 reinforced the industry’s difficult present but also its long-term resilience. ACT Research will continue providing insight to help navigate today’s flat market and prepare for opportunities ahead.
Looking for more insights from the seminar?
In the latest episode of the ACT Research and FleetOwner, Market Pulse, filmed during our Market Vitals Seminar on August 20-21, 2025, ACT's Ken Vieth and FleetOwner's Josh Fisher discuss analysts' outlook for tariffs.
