According to the latest State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks, published by ACT Research, used Class 8 retail volumes (same dealer sales) declined 23% m/m in April. Average mileage declined by 1%, with average price down 8% and age up 3%. Longer term, average volumes, price, and miles were lower, with age flat y/y.
“Same dealer Class 8 retail truck sales slowed in April, pulling back 23% from March. While sales normally decelerate in April, the decrease was greater than the expected 8-10%,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. He continued, “With inventory on the rise, and more importantly, not a limiting factor for sales, the logical conclusion is that demand is softening. This is a plausible explanation, especially given waning economic and freight conditions.”
“Examining each of the channels individually will shed light on how other indicators are faring. Near-term channel results reveal the usual pullback from the quarter-end spike in auction volumes. After spiking 93% m/m in March, auction activity shrank 45% m/m in April. Wholesale transactions improved, jumping 72% m/m,” he added. “Combined, the total market fell 28% m/m in April.”
Tam concluded, “As the year progresses, the year-to-date scenario also continues to diverge from last year. The overall market extended its lead to 5% ytd. Despite the early lead, we believe that truckers’ appetites for used equipment will be curbed as freight volumes continue to contract. Our best estimate suggests that inventory continues to increase, supporting buyers working to refresh their used truck fleets.”
ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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The preliminary Class 8 same dealer used truck retail sales volume balloon deflated in April, shrinking 22% m/m. The decline split the difference with the auction and wholesale markets. As expected, auction activity pulled back (-45%) from March’s quarter-end spike. On the flip side, wholesale deals were up 130% m/m.
Combined, the used truck industry saw preliminary same dealer sales pull back 27% m/m, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.
Compared to March 2023, average retail price declined 6%. Miles was flat and age increased 1%. Compared to April of 2022, volumes, price, and age declined, and miles was flat.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “Historically, April is a pretty average month, slowing 8-10% from March.” He continued, “Clearly, some used truck buyers are beginning to react to the increased pressure of slowing freight and economic uncertainty.”
He added, “The preliminary average retail price (same dealer sales) of used Class 8 trucks sold in April fell 6.0% m/m, to $68,500, 32% below the industry peak in April 2022.”
Tam concluded, “While easier comparisons from this point forward might make it feel like the pricing environment is improving, prices will still be falling sequentially, counteracting increasing optimism.”
Compared to April 2023:
- Average retail volumes decreased 23%.
- Retail price declined 8%.
- Miles declined 1%.
- And age increased 3%.
Compared to May of 2022:
- Average retail volumes declined 16%.
- Price declined 31%.
- Miles declined 2%.
- And age was flat.
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