While demand trends are mixed and the outlook remains cloudy, capacity continues to contract, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Class 8 tractor production is on track to decline about 35% from 1H to 2H this year, to a rate several thousand trucks per month below what is needed to maintain the fleet size,” according to Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “In our view, lower capacity in an otherwise stable demand environment could move the cycle forward and actually create for-hire demand by reversing the insourcing of recent years. But this will take time.”
“The recent trends in our ACT Driver Availability Index suggests the driver market is no longer loose, but not yet tight. This index, from a survey of medium and large fleets, needed to fall below 40 the last two cycles before rates responded. The new rules on nondomiciled drivers could tighten driver capacity over the next one-to-two years, but heavy truck tariff costs are starting to constrain equipment capacity,” Denoyer concluded.
Freight Forecast Report Overview
The monthly 58-page ACT freight forecast provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
The freight market was nearing balance in late 2024 and early 2025, with rates and volume trends improving. Since the start of the trade war, momentum has slowed sharply, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Extra pre-tariff equipment purchases and ongoing volume softness have kept truckload market conditions from tightening this year, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come,” according to Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. Container shipping activity is set to fall sharply, which will likely affect intermodal most acutely from a surface freight perspective.”
“We see growing evidence of private fleets reining in capacity after a major expansion from 2022-2024. Class 8 tractor production will drop by more than 30% from 1H to 2H this year, and this reversal will eventually support a recovery in for-hire demand,” Denoyer concluded.
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