Booming economic activity results in more freight needing hauled. Freight volume refers to the amount of goods, import and export, moving through the transportation industry. Almost every physical product made or sold in the U.S. economy moves through the commercial vehicle (CV) market.
Why Is Freight Volume Important?
No matter the economic environment, having an understanding of market trends is extremely valuable for companies to be able to respond to challenges and opportunities.
Shippers own or supply the goods (freight) that carriers will transport, and brokers act as the middle man between them; thus, the amount of freight moving among these players will impact how they conduct their business. Businesses benefit from having accurate information related to freight volume so they can better plan for the road ahead.
An effective way to think about supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is the concept of a pendulum. When demand grows faster than capacity and the supply of drivers or tractors is short, the pendulum swings to the fleets and freight rates rise. When supply growth outpaces demand growth, the pendulum swings to the shipper and freight rates fall. Trying to match long-term businesses with short-term fluctuations in freight demand is cyclical.
How is Freight Volume Measured?
For any company, the scope of internal data can be limiting and unfortunately, the cost of gathering broader market analysis can be prohibitive. As a solution, ACT Research gathers information on a confidential basis from a wide variety of TL carriers, especially the small and mid-size TL carriers that haul a major portion of freight in the North American market. The elements of information include:
- business volume trends,
- market price trends, and
- expectations for vehicle sales and purchases.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index surveys carriers to help paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and CV markets.
Additionally, ACT Research partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc., the nation’s largest processor of freight billing, to gain insight on current market trends and the state of the shipping sector. ACT uses the Cass Freight Index®, which measures freight volumes and expenditures, and the Truckload Linehaul Index®, a pricing indicator, to forecast freight demand.
What is ACT saying right now about freight volume?
Updated Freight Volume Overview – July 2026
Freight volumes entered July 2026 with demand still uneven, but the operating environment continued to tighten. ACT’s latest Freight Forecast indicates that for-hire conditions are being shaped less by a broad demand surge and more by capacity contraction, exceptionally tight driver availability, and substantially stronger truckload rates.
Aggregate truckload spot rates, excluding fuel, increased 43% year over year in June, while contract rates were 13% higher. This matters because freight volumes are now moving through a market with less available capacity and less ability to respond quickly to changing demand.
For-Hire Volumes Reflect a Changing Capacity Mix
Truckload volumes remain mixed across goods-related freight, but the market is no longer defined by deterioration or excess supply. Freight activity is improving selectively, and some freight is shifting from private fleets back toward the for-hire market.
This can increase demand for for-hire transportation even without a comparable increase in total shipment activity. For shippers, carriers, brokers, and logistics teams, the practical question is therefore not only how much freight is moving, but which transportation networks are handling it and how much available capacity remains.
A modest increase in for-hire volumes can have an outsized effect on rates and service when driver availability is constrained and the supply base is contracting.
Consumer Freight Remains Uneven
Retail-oriented freight remains selective rather than broadly strong. Consumer demand and goods volumes have not accelerated sharply, limiting the case for a demand-led freight expansion.
At the same time, restocking, selective industrial improvement, and private-fleet contraction are supporting freight activity in parts of the market. Investment associated with energy, utilities, infrastructure, construction, and data centers is also creating relative strength in certain regions, lanes, and equipment categories.
Shippers should monitor whether tighter truckload availability continues to raise rate floors despite modest overall volume growth. Transportation costs and service risk may increase before traditional demand indicators show a broad economic acceleration.
Intermodal Remains a Relative Bright Spot
Intermodal remains one of the clearer areas of freight-volume strength. Tight dry van truckload capacity and intermodal’s relative cost advantage are supporting domestic intermodal demand, particularly on lanes where service requirements and transit times allow modal conversion.
For shippers and logistics providers, intermodal may provide an opportunity to protect capacity and manage costs as truckload pricing rises. However, the attractiveness of conversion will depend on lane characteristics, network balance, service requirements, drayage availability, and how quickly intermodal pricing responds to tighter truckload conditions.
Carriers, brokers, and intermodal providers should monitor whether sustained truckload rate strength leads to additional modal shifts through the remainder of 2026.
LTL Demand Is Stabilizing Selectively
LTL demand remains in a stabilization phase. Shipment activity is improving selectively after an extended period of weakness, but the segment has not entered a broad demand expansion.
Competition from below-CDL box trucks continues to influence lighter-weight freight, while tighter truckload capacity may support heavier LTL shipments and create opportunities for mode substitution. The effects are likely to vary by shipment weight, customer segment, industrial exposure, and regional network conditions.
For shippers and brokers, the planning question is whether changing truckload economics make LTL more attractive for particular shipments. LTL carriers should monitor whether improving industrial activity and tighter adjacent capacity translate into stronger shipment counts, weight per shipment, and pricing conditions.
Freight Volume Forecasting
When forecasting the truckload and less-than-truckload markets, ACT Research utilizes two primary metrics to measure industry volumes (demand):
In short, both measure consumer demand that drives the shipping of goods by a carrier. In other words, measurements of the volume of freight hauled.
Cass Freight Index®- Shipments measures the number of freight shipments hauled within North America by Cass Information Systems. Cass processes more than $44 billion in freight transactions annually and is the ideal source for measuring shipper volumes.
ACT Freight Composite Index is a measure of the estimated total freight hauled by sector as developed by ACT Research.
These two demand metrics provide insights into the expected volumes of freight shipped over the next 6-36 months, providing a supply-demand balance when utilized with ACT's capacity (supply) metrics.
To see how freight volume is likely to change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.