Booming economic activity results in more freight needing hauled. Freight volume refers to the amount of goods, import and export, moving through the transportation industry. Almost every physical product made or sold in the U.S. economy moves through the commercial vehicle (CV) market.
Why Is Freight Volume Important?
No matter the economic environment, having an understanding of market trends is extremely valuable for companies to be able to respond to challenges and opportunities.
Shippers own or supply the goods (freight) that carriers will transport, and brokers act as the middle man between them; thus, the amount of freight moving among these players will impact how they conduct their business. Businesses benefit from having accurate information related to freight volume so they can better plan for the road ahead.
An effective way to think about supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is the concept of a pendulum. When demand grows faster than capacity and the supply of drivers or tractors is short, the pendulum swings to the fleets and freight rates rise. When supply growth outpaces demand growth, the pendulum swings to the shipper and freight rates fall. Trying to match long-term businesses with short-term fluctuations in freight demand is cyclical.
How is Freight Volume Measured?
For any company, the scope of internal data can be limiting and unfortunately, the cost of gathering broader market analysis can be prohibitive. As a solution, ACT Research gathers information on a confidential basis from a wide variety of TL carriers, especially the small and mid-size TL carriers that haul a major portion of freight in the North American market. The elements of information include:
- business volume trends,
- market price trends, and
- expectations for vehicle sales and purchases.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index surveys carriers to help paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and CV markets.
Additionally, ACT Research partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc., the nation’s largest processor of freight billing, to gain insight on current market trends and the state of the shipping sector. ACT uses the Cass Freight Index®, which measures freight volumes and expenditures, and the Truckload Linehaul Index®, a pricing indicator, to forecast freight demand.
What is ACT saying right now about freight volume?
Updated Freight Volume Overview – August 2026
Freight volumes entered August 2026 with demand still uneven and the broader outlook softening, even as available truckload capacity remained tight. ACT’s latest Freight Forecast indicates that for-hire conditions are being shaped less by a broad demand surge and more by capacity contraction, regulatory enforcement, limited driver availability, and substantially stronger truckload rates.
Dry van spot rates, excluding fuel, increased 47% year over year in July, while aggregate contract rates were 17% higher. Aggregate spot rates remained above contract rates, signaling acute market tightness. This matters because freight volumes are moving through a market with less available capacity and less ability to respond quickly, even as rising interest rates, elevated fuel prices, slower job growth, and weak consumer fundamentals pressure the demand outlook.
For-Hire Volumes Reflect a Changing Capacity Mix
Truckload volumes remain mixed across goods-related freight, but the market is no longer defined by excess supply. Spot-market activity remains strong, with DAT spot truckload postings increasing 30% year over year in July—the twentieth consecutive monthly increase.
That strength does not represent broad freight growth. ACT’s selected DAT volume measures declined 3.7% year over year in July after increasing in June, while volumes in the larger truckload contract market remained under pressure. Tight capacity is allowing carriers to move toward higher-paying spot opportunities rather than continue hauling freight under outdated contract rates.
Private fleets have also been removing capacity since 2025, shifting some freight back toward the for-hire market. This can increase demand for for-hire transportation even without a comparable increase in total shipment activity. For shippers, carriers, brokers, and logistics teams, the practical question is therefore not only how much freight is moving, but which transportation networks are handling it and how much available capacity remains.
A modest increase in for-hire volumes can have an outsized effect on rates and service when driver and equipment availability are constrained. Shorter contracts and more frequent mini-bids also mean changes in capacity and spot-market activity are moving into contract pricing more quickly than during prior cycles.
Consumer Freight Remains Uneven
Retail-oriented freight remains selective rather than broadly strong. Housing, consumer goods, real income growth, and household savings remain under pressure, limiting the case for a demand-led freight expansion. Rising interest rates and elevated fuel prices are also reducing consumers’ ability to support stronger goods demand.
Inventories have continued to tighten in real terms, and inventory-to-sales ratios are near five-year lows. Easier comparisons, selective restocking, and private-fleet contraction are supporting freight activity in parts of the market, but retailers remain cautious about rebuilding inventories aggressively.
Investment associated with energy, utilities, infrastructure, construction, power generation, and data centers is creating relative strength in certain regions, lanes, and equipment categories. These pockets of activity are especially important for flatbed and project-related freight but do not represent a broad consumer or industrial acceleration.
Shippers should monitor whether tight truckload availability continues to raise transportation costs despite modest overall volume growth. Rate and service pressure can increase before traditional demand indicators show a broad economic acceleration.
Intermodal Remains a Relative Bright Spot
Intermodal remains one of the clearest areas of freight-volume strength. North American intermodal volumes are on pace to surpass the prior annual record in 2026, supported by tight dry van truckload capacity, available rail capacity, and a historically large rate discount relative to truckload.
Domestic intermodal volumes accelerated from 4% year-over-year growth in the first quarter to 12% in the second quarter as truckload capacity tightened. International volumes are also recovering as tariff pressure eases and retailers begin selective restocking.
For shippers and logistics providers, intermodal may provide an opportunity to protect capacity and manage costs as truckload pricing rises. However, the attractiveness of conversion will depend on lane characteristics, network balance, service requirements, drayage availability, and how much additional freight the rail network can absorb without service deterioration.
Carriers, brokers, and intermodal providers should monitor whether sustained truckload tightness produces additional modal shifts and when rising intermodal utilization begins to reduce available rail capacity and narrow the current pricing advantage.
LTL Demand Is Stabilizing Selectively
LTL demand has moved beyond stabilization in selected measures. Tonnage among the public LTL carriers tracked by ACT increased 1.3% year over year in the second quarter—the first positive year-over-year result in four years. Weight per shipment increased 2.8%, its strongest gain since 2018.
Tighter truckload capacity is pushing some freight into LTL networks, particularly when truckload availability is limited or shipments can be divided across modes. This adjacency to truckload is becoming an advantage for LTL after contributing to weaker demand during the prior freight downcycle.
Competition from below-CDL box trucks continues to influence lighter-weight freight. Driver availability may also be less restrictive for LTL carriers because regular routes and frequent home time make many LTL driving positions comparatively attractive. These factors could limit pricing gains even as tonnage improves.
For shippers and brokers, the planning question is whether changing truckload economics make LTL more attractive for particular shipments. LTL carriers should monitor whether truckload capacity constraints, improving industrial activity, and heavier shipments translate into sustained tonnage growth, higher weight per shipment, and firmer pricing conditions.
Freight Volume Forecasting
When forecasting the truckload and less-than-truckload markets, ACT Research utilizes two primary metrics to measure industry volumes (demand):
In short, both measure consumer demand that drives the shipping of goods by a carrier. In other words, measurements of the volume of freight hauled.
Cass Freight Index®- Shipments measures the number of freight shipments hauled within North America by Cass Information Systems. Cass processes more than $44 billion in freight transactions annually and is the ideal source for measuring shipper volumes.
ACT Freight Composite Index is a measure of the estimated total freight hauled by sector as developed by ACT Research.
These two demand metrics provide insights into the expected volumes of freight shipped over the next 6-36 months, providing a supply-demand balance when utilized with ACT's capacity (supply) metrics.
To see how freight volume is likely to change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.