Booming economic activity results in more freight needing hauled. Freight volume refers to the amount of goods, import and export, moving through the transportation industry. Almost every physical product made or sold in the U.S. economy moves through the commercial vehicle (CV) market.
Why Is Freight Volume Important?
No matter the economic environment, having an understanding of market trends is extremely valuable for companies to be able to respond to challenges and opportunities.
Shippers own or supply the goods (freight) that carriers will transport, and brokers act as the middle man between them; thus, the amount of freight moving among these players will impact how they conduct their business. Businesses benefit from having accurate information related to freight volume so they can better plan for the road ahead.
An effective way to think about supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is the concept of a pendulum. When demand grows faster than capacity and the supply of drivers or tractors is short, the pendulum swings to the fleets and freight rates rise. When supply growth outpaces demand growth, the pendulum swings to the shipper and freight rates fall. Trying to match long-term businesses with short-term fluctuations in freight demand is cyclical.
How is Freight Volume Measured?
For any company, the scope of internal data can be limiting and unfortunately, the cost of gathering broader market analysis can be prohibitive. As a solution, ACT Research gathers information on a confidential basis from a wide variety of TL carriers, especially the small and mid-size TL carriers that haul a major portion of freight in the North American market. The elements of information include:
- business volume trends,
- market price trends, and
- expectations for vehicle sales and purchases.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index surveys carriers to help paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and CV markets.
Additionally, ACT Research partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc., the nation’s largest processor of freight billing, to gain insight on current market trends and the state of the shipping sector. ACT uses the Cass Freight Index®, which measures freight volumes and expenditures, and the Truckload Linehaul Index®, a pricing indicator, to forecast freight demand.
What is ACT saying right now about freight volume?
Updated Freight Volume Overview – April 2026
Freight volumes entered March 2026 firmer than late-2025 trends suggested, though a broad-based demand rebound has still not fully materialized. The unwind of pre-tariff shipping has largely run its course, and while goods-intensive sectors remain uneven, tightening capacity, rising fuel costs, and accelerating contract rates are reshaping the operating environment. According to the latest ACT Research data, for-hire freight volumes have stabilized and improved modestly, with recent strength increasingly tied to constrained supply rather than a surge in demand. Capacity contraction continues to accelerate beneath the surface, and excess supply conditions that defined much of 2024–2025 are narrowing more quickly than previously anticipated, reinforced by declining driver availability and reduced fleet expansion.
ACT Research For-Hire Volume Index March 2026
Retail-oriented freight remains mixed rather than robust. Consumer spending continues to show selectivity, and retailers are maintaining lean inventory positions. However, the freight environment is no longer deteriorating, and tighter truckload capacity—combined with higher rate floors and spot rates running materially higher year-over-year—are amplifying the pricing impact of even modest demand stability. E-commerce remains relatively resilient, but broader discretionary goods volumes continue to lag.
Intermodal activity remains uneven entering March 2026. While containerized volumes have stabilized following earlier import normalization, they remain sensitive to trade policy and tariff developments. Rail service performance has improved, and tightening truckload capacity alongside higher highway rates is gradually improving intermodal competitiveness. Intermodal volumes have returned to modest year-over-year growth, though pricing still lags truckload and remains below prior-cycle peaks.
Industrial-oriented freight continues to lag relative to consumer and essential segments. Manufacturing output remains inconsistent, and construction activity remains bifurcated. Infrastructure, utility, and data-center-related freight—along with improving energy-sector activity tied to higher oil prices—are providing incremental support, while residential construction and certain commercial segments remain soft.
Looking into 2026, risks are becoming more balanced as supply-side tightening continues to reshape market dynamics. ACT Research does not expect a sharp demand-driven surge, but tightening capacity, rising fuel costs, and improving rate conditions suggest freight markets are transitioning more clearly from oversupply toward normalization.
With operating authorities declining, driver availability tightening, production discipline limiting new capacity, and rate floors resetting higher year-over-year, overall freight volumes are stabilizing rather than deteriorating. ACT Research anticipates that sustained improvement through 2026 will be driven primarily by continued structural capacity contraction, cost-driven supply constraints, and firmer pricing dynamics, with demand recovery likely to remain gradual rather than explosive.
Freight Volume Forecasting
When forecasting the truckload and less-than-truckload markets, ACT Research utilizes two primary metrics to measure industry volumes (demand):
In short, both measure consumer demand that drives the shipping of goods by a carrier. In other words, measurements of the volume of freight hauled.
Cass Freight Index®- Shipments measures the number of freight shipments hauled within North America by Cass Information Systems. Cass processes more than $44 billion in freight transactions annually and is the ideal source for measuring shipper volumes.
ACT Freight Composite Index is a measure of the estimated total freight hauled by sector as developed by ACT Research.
These two demand metrics provide insights into the expected volumes of freight shipped over the next 6-36 months, providing a supply-demand balance when utilized with ACT's capacity (supply) metrics.
To see how freight volume is likely to change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.