Booming economic activity results in more freight needing hauled. Freight volume refers to the amount of goods, import and export, moving through the transportation industry. Almost every physical product made or sold in the U.S. economy moves through the commercial vehicle (CV) market.
Why Is Freight Volume Important?
No matter the economic environment, having an understanding of market trends is extremely valuable for companies to be able to respond to challenges and opportunities.
Shippers own or supply the goods (freight) that carriers will transport, and brokers act as the middle man between them; thus, the amount of freight moving among these players will impact how they conduct their business. Businesses benefit from having accurate information related to freight volume so they can better plan for the road ahead.
An effective way to think about supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is the concept of a pendulum. When demand grows faster than capacity and the supply of drivers or tractors is short, the pendulum swings to the fleets and freight rates rise. When supply growth outpaces demand growth, the pendulum swings to the shipper and freight rates fall. Trying to match long-term businesses with short-term fluctuations in freight demand is cyclical.
How is Freight Volume Measured?
For any company, the scope of internal data can be limiting and unfortunately, the cost of gathering broader market analysis can be prohibitive. As a solution, ACT Research gathers information on a confidential basis from a wide variety of TL carriers, especially the small and mid-size TL carriers that haul a major portion of freight in the North American market. The elements of information include:
- business volume trends,
- market price trends, and
- expectations for vehicle sales and purchases.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index surveys carriers to help paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and CV markets.
Additionally, ACT Research partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc., the nation’s largest processor of freight billing, to gain insight on current market trends and the state of the shipping sector. ACT uses the Cass Freight Index®, which measures freight volumes and expenditures, and the Truckload Linehaul Index®, a pricing indicator, to forecast freight demand.
What is ACT saying right now about freight volume?
Updated Freight Volume Overview – August 2025
As of July 2025, freight volumes remain weak and largely directionless, with no definitive signs of recovery on the horizon. The modest lift from seasonal shipping in late Q2 has faded, and while some regional strength persists, national freight trends continue to underwhelm. The ACT For-Hire Trucking Volume Index remained flat for the sixth consecutive month in July, reinforcing the view that any meaningful rebound in freight activity remains elusive and unevenly distributed.
Retail freight continues to soften, particularly in discretionary and big-ticket categories, as high borrowing costs and tariff-inflated prices weigh on consumer demand. Shippers are maintaining lean inventory positions and emphasizing speed and flexibility over volume, limiting opportunities for freight acceleration. Ongoing landed cost uncertainty tied to trade policy has further discouraged long-range inventory planning, especially in durable goods and electronics.
Intermodal volumes declined again in July, extending the downward trend that began in late Q2. Seasonally adjusted weekly volumes fell an additional 2%, driven by weaker port throughput, tepid import demand, and soft global trade flows. While rail service performance has stabilized, spot intermodal pricing remains depressed, and shippers continue to favor flexibility over modal shifts, limiting recovery potential in the near term.
Looking ahead to Q4, freight volumes could face additional headwinds if economic indicators continue to soften. Industrial production, housing starts, and business investment all remain under pressure. However, essential goods categories—including infrastructure shipments, food logistics, and medical supply chains—are expected to provide a baseline of volume stability. Across the freight landscape, planning remains cautious, with a focus on cost discipline, asset efficiency, and operational agility rather than expansion or network buildouts.
Freight Volume Forecasting
When forecasting the truckload and less-than-truckload markets, ACT Research utilizes two primary metrics to measure industry volumes (demand):
In short, both measure consumer demand that drives the shipping of goods by a carrier. In other words, measurements of the volume of freight hauled.
Cass Freight Index®- Shipments measures the number of freight shipments hauled within North America by Cass Information Systems. Cass processes more than $44 billion in freight transactions annually and is the ideal source for measuring shipper volumes.
ACT Freight Composite Index is a measure of the estimated total freight hauled by sector as developed by ACT Research.
These two demand metrics provide insights into the expected volumes of freight shipped over the next 6-36 months, providing a supply-demand balance when utilized with ACT's capacity (supply) metrics.
To see how freight volume is likely to change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.