Booming economic activity results in more freight needing hauled. Freight volume refers to the amount of goods, import and export, moving through the transportation industry. Almost every physical product made or sold in the U.S. economy moves through the commercial vehicle (CV) market.
Why Is Freight Volume Important?
No matter the economic environment, having an understanding of market trends is extremely valuable for companies to be able to respond to challenges and opportunities.
Shippers own or supply the goods (freight) that carriers will transport, and brokers act as the middle man between them; thus, the amount of freight moving among these players will impact how they conduct their business. Businesses benefit from having accurate information related to freight volume so they can better plan for the road ahead.
An effective way to think about supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is the concept of a pendulum. When demand grows faster than capacity and the supply of drivers or tractors is short, the pendulum swings to the fleets and freight rates rise. When supply growth outpaces demand growth, the pendulum swings to the shipper and freight rates fall. Trying to match long-term businesses with short-term fluctuations in freight demand is cyclical.
How is Freight Volume Measured?
For any company, the scope of internal data can be limiting and unfortunately, the cost of gathering broader market analysis can be prohibitive. As a solution, ACT Research gathers information on a confidential basis from a wide variety of TL carriers, especially the small and mid-size TL carriers that haul a major portion of freight in the North American market. The elements of information include:
- business volume trends,
- market price trends, and
- expectations for vehicle sales and purchases.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index surveys carriers to help paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and CV markets.
Additionally, ACT Research partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc., the nation’s largest processor of freight billing, to gain insight on current market trends and the state of the shipping sector. ACT uses the Cass Freight Index®, which measures freight volumes and expenditures, and the Truckload Linehaul Index®, a pricing indicator, to forecast freight demand.
What is ACT saying right now about freight volume?
Updated Freight Volume Overview – May 2025
As of May 2025, freight volumes remain relatively stable but lack clear upward momentum. The boost from pre-tariff inventory activity has fully dissipated, and while seasonal trends are providing some support, overall growth has slowed. The ACT For-Hire Trucking Volume Index remained near-flat in April for the third consecutive month, reinforcing the view that freight recovery remains uneven and fragile.
Retail freight has softened further, with continued pullbacks in discretionary goods movement. Inflationary pressure, higher interest rates, and weakening consumer sentiment are prompting retailers to maintain leaner inventories. Restocking is focused on core categories, and shippers remain cautious in committing to forward inventory positions given ongoing cost volatility.
Intermodal activity has started to decelerate after holding steady through early spring. Port volumes have normalized, and shippers are adapting to higher landed costs and changing sourcing patterns. While service reliability has improved, volume growth is now limited by slower global demand and trade policy disruptions, particularly with China.
Looking ahead, freight volumes could face renewed pressure in Q2 if consumer spending and industrial output continue to soften. Still, essential goods segments—such as infrastructure-related freight, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals—are expected to provide a degree of volume stability. Freight planning across the industry remains conservative, with carriers and shippers focused on flexibility and cost control over expansion.
Freight Volume Forecasting
When forecasting the truckload and less-than-truckload markets, ACT Research utilizes two primary metrics to measure industry volumes (demand):
In short, both measure consumer demand that drives the shipping of goods by a carrier. In other words, measurements of the volume of freight hauled.
Cass Freight Index®- Shipments measures the number of freight shipments hauled within North America by Cass Information Systems. Cass processes more than $44 billion in freight transactions annually and is the ideal source for measuring shipper volumes.
ACT Freight Composite Index is a measure of the estimated total freight hauled by sector as developed by ACT Research.
These two demand metrics provide insights into the expected volumes of freight shipped over the next 6-36 months, providing a supply-demand balance when utilized with ACT's capacity (supply) metrics.
To see how freight volume is likely to change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.