Booming economic activity results in more freight needing hauled. Freight volume refers to the amount of goods, import and export, moving through the transportation industry. Almost every physical product made or sold in the U.S. economy moves through the commercial vehicle (CV) market.
Why Is Freight Volume Important?
No matter the economic environment, having an understanding of market trends is extremely valuable for companies to be able to respond to challenges and opportunities.
Shippers own or supply the goods (freight) that carriers will transport, and brokers act as the middle man between them; thus, the amount of freight moving among these players will impact how they conduct their business. Businesses benefit from having accurate information related to freight volume so they can better plan for the road ahead.
An effective way to think about supply and demand in the truckload (TL) market is the concept of a pendulum. When demand grows faster than capacity and the supply of drivers or tractors is short, the pendulum swings to the fleets and freight rates rise. When supply growth outpaces demand growth, the pendulum swings to the shipper and freight rates fall. Trying to match long-term businesses with short-term fluctuations in freight demand is cyclical.
How is Freight Volume Measured?
For any company, the scope of internal data can be limiting and unfortunately, the cost of gathering broader market analysis can be prohibitive. As a solution, ACT Research gathers information on a confidential basis from a wide variety of TL carriers, especially the small and mid-size TL carriers that haul a major portion of freight in the North American market. The elements of information include:
- business volume trends,
- market price trends, and
- expectations for vehicle sales and purchases.
The ACT For-Hire Trucking Index surveys carriers to help paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and CV markets.
Additionally, ACT Research partners with Cass Information Systems, Inc., the nation’s largest processor of freight billing, to gain insight on current market trends and the state of the shipping sector. ACT uses the Cass Freight Index®, which measures freight volumes and expenditures, and the Truckload Linehaul Index®, a pricing indicator, to forecast freight demand.
What is ACT saying right now about freight volume?
Updated Freight Volume Overview – February 2026
Freight volumes entered February 2026 firmer than late-2025 trends suggested, though a broad-based demand rebound has not yet materialized. The unwind of pre-tariff shipping has largely run its course, and while goods-intensive sectors remain uneven, tightening capacity and materially higher spot rates are reshaping the operating environment. According to the latest ACT Research data, for-hire freight volumes have stabilized and improved modestly following winter-driven tightening and rising load-to-truck ratios. Capacity contraction is accelerating beneath the surface, and excess supply conditions that defined much of 2024–2025 are narrowing more quickly than previously anticipated.
Retail-oriented freight remains mixed rather than robust. Consumer spending continues to show selectivity, and retailers are maintaining lean inventory positions. However, the freight environment is no longer deteriorating at the same pace seen earlier in the downturn. E-commerce remains relatively resilient, and while general merchandise and discretionary goods volumes are not surging, tightening truckload supply is amplifying the impact of even modest demand stability on pricing dynamics.
Intermodal activity remains uneven entering 2026. The unwind of earlier import distortions has largely normalized, but containerized volumes remain sensitive to trade-policy shifts and evolving tariff structures. Rail service performance has improved, and port congestion remains limited. However, tightening truckload capacity and stronger highway spot rates are reducing truckload pricing aggression, which may gradually improve intermodal competitiveness as 2026 progresses. Intermodal spot rates remain compressed relative to historical peaks but have stabilized alongside broader freight tightening.
Industrial-oriented freight continues to lag relative to consumer and essential segments. Manufacturing output remains inconsistent, and factory orders have yet to demonstrate sustained acceleration. Construction remains bifurcated: infrastructure, utility, and data-center-related freight is providing incremental support, while private residential and certain commercial construction categories remain soft. Energy-related freight is stable but not expansionary, reflecting disciplined capital spending and cautious upstream investment.
Looking into early 2026, risks are more balanced than previously skewed to the downside. ACT Research does not expect a sharp, traditional post-holiday surge, but tightening supply conditions and improving spot benchmarks suggest freight markets are transitioning from oversupply toward gradual normalization. Winter weather disruptions in January and early February amplified volatility, yet unlike prior periods, those disruptions occurred within a structurally leaner capacity environment.
With operating authorities declining, production discipline limiting new capacity growth, and rate floors resetting higher year-over-year, overall freight volumes are stabilizing rather than deteriorating. ACT Research anticipates that sustained improvement through 2026 will be driven primarily by continued structural capacity contraction and firmer pricing dynamics, with demand recovery likely to remain gradual rather than explosive.
Freight Volume Forecasting
When forecasting the truckload and less-than-truckload markets, ACT Research utilizes two primary metrics to measure industry volumes (demand):
In short, both measure consumer demand that drives the shipping of goods by a carrier. In other words, measurements of the volume of freight hauled.
Cass Freight Index®- Shipments measures the number of freight shipments hauled within North America by Cass Information Systems. Cass processes more than $44 billion in freight transactions annually and is the ideal source for measuring shipper volumes.
ACT Freight Composite Index is a measure of the estimated total freight hauled by sector as developed by ACT Research.
These two demand metrics provide insights into the expected volumes of freight shipped over the next 6-36 months, providing a supply-demand balance when utilized with ACT's capacity (supply) metrics.
To see how freight volume is likely to change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.