Chaos Is Cash—For the Shippers Who Prepare

With freight markets flat and fleet investment slowing, proactive procurement and policy readiness are becoming key competitive differentiators.

Shippers enter September 2025 with a window of opportunity—but not without risk. According to ACT Research’s latest Freight Forecast and NA Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, the market remains stable on the surface: spot rates are flat, capacity is loose, and carrier pricing remains favorable.

But underneath that calm, conditions are tightening. Class 8 orders remain deeply suppressed, OEM backlogs continue to shrink, and EPA 2027 compliance is still unresolved. Fleets are deferring investment, aging equipment is becoming a service risk, and regulatory overhang is setting the stage for sudden shifts in availability and cost.

For shippers who are watching closely, this moment isn’t just a soft patch—it’s a strategic inflection point. The prepared will lock in margin and secure capacity. The passive will scramble later. In today’s market, chaos is cash—for the shippers who plan ahead.

Use Current Rate Stability to Benchmark and Rebuild Cost Models

September data confirms that spot rates remain near cycle lows, and contract rates continue to tread water, with no meaningful upward pressure across major modes. Shippers still hold strong negotiating power—but this should be seen as a time to optimize, not relax.

This is the moment to:

• Revisit cost-to-serve benchmarks by lane and customer segment
• Reevaluate modal splits and regional strategies for agility and cost resilience
• Renegotiate routing guides while capacity remains abundant

But don’t assume this will last. ACT reports that Class 8 net orders fell again in August, tracking ~30% below year-ago levels, with OEM build slots still open through Q4. Fleets are not reinvesting. When demand returns—or compliance pressure hits—capacity will not be ready.

Shippers who proactively lock in rates and capacity commitments now will have the upper hand when the market inevitably recalibrates.

Track Equipment Signals to Stay Ahead of Service Risk

Fleet investment continues to lag. ACT notes that replacement demand alone isn’t being met, and most fleets are holding off on orders due to high equipment prices, tariff pass-throughs, and interest rate pressures. This hesitation is building a slow-moving service risk across the network.

Meanwhile:

• Tractor prices remain up 2–4% y/y, largely due to prior tariffs and component inflation
• Reefer trailers continue to face higher costs, driven by material and compliance complexity
• Used truck inventories are rising, but values are soft—suggesting aging fleets with delayed upgrades

Shippers relying on aging carrier assets will begin to see the impact in tender rejections, OTD failures, and reduced regional flexibility. Now is the time to audit carrier health, including equipment age and emissions readiness, and to rebalance your network toward more stable, better-capitalized providers.

Plan for Policy-Led Volatility in 2026

EPA 2027 rulemaking remains in legal and administrative limbo, but ACT continues to forecast a compressed prebuy window—likely opening sometime in 2026. Once final guidance is issued, fleets may rush to place orders, creating a brief but sharp spike in demand that OEMs are not currently tooled to absorb.

Why does that matter for shippers? Because when orders spike:

• Lead times extend
• New equipment availability drops
• Carrier service quality fractures, especially in regions or sectors tied to emissions enforcement

ACT's data suggests that most fleets are not yet preparing. That creates a strategic advantage for shippers who engage with carriers now on their compliance timelines, regional asset plans, and upgrade paths.

Steps to take:

• Scorecard carriers on fleet age and emissions status
• Explore modal diversification to reduce exposure to over-the-road gaps
• Build in redundancy and contractual flexibility for compliance-critical lanes

Final Takeaway: Don’t Confuse Calm for Certainty

Freight markets may feel quiet—but they are far from settled. The underlying forces that drive disruption are already in motion: deferred investment, compressed equipment cycles, and regulatory triggers.

Shippers who use this moment to optimize contracts, evaluate risk, and secure forward-looking partnerships will not only protect margin but also control the board when conditions change.

This is a holding pattern—but one that rewards action. In today’s market, chaos is cash—for the shippers who prepare.

Want to hear more from ACT Research? Tim Denoyer sat down with Jeremy Wolfe from FleetOwner to talk about for-hire trucking's overcapacity problem and it's likely solutions.

For-hire trucking's overcapacity problem—and its eventual solution (4:36 minute watch)

Freight Forecast Report Overview

The monthly 58-page ACT freight forecast provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.

ACT Research Overview

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.