Chinese commercial vehicle demand presented a mixed bag of results into the end of 2022. While demand for heavy trucks, medium trucks, and tractors started the process of reversing their downward trajectory as the Chinese economy reopened, according to the recent release of ACT Research’s China commercial vehicle forecast.
Medium truck and heavy tractor volumes remained under pressure in the year’s final quarter, but saw improvement relative to year-ago levels. While still down compared to last year, heavy truck volumes posted a strong gain in Q4 q/q, boosting overall HD vehicle output. With declines narrowing and easy comps inbound, 2022 is expected to be the nadir of this demand cycle. MD and HD vehicle output is projected to rise 25% in 2023 from 2022 levels.
Economic growth in Q4’22 was mixed as an explosion of COVID cases negatively impacted activity due to a surge of infections after the pandemic control restrictions were lifted. Additionally, falling external demand dampened exports amid slower global growth. Infrastructure investment was strong but insufficient to drive an uptick in volume against other headwinds.
China CV Forecast Report Overview
The China CV forecast, jointly published quarterly by ACT and China’s State Information Center (SIC), includes a review and forecast of China’s heavy tractor and heavy and medium duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China and an overview of the Chinese macroeconomy. This quarterly report also includes access to monthly by-OEM wholesale data, alternative fuels market shares by CV application, market share percentages, industrial policy impacts, and an overview of the competitive landscape.
SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
According to the recent release of ACT Research’s China Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, Chinese commercial vehicle market demands for heavy trucks, medium trucks, and tractors maintained a sharp decline, affected by policy, market, and economic factors.
In Q3’22, domestic sales of heavy trucks (excluding tractors) were down nearly 31% y/y. While Q1 sales were consistent with last year’s run rate, Q3 continued the sluggishness which started in Q2.
Freight hauling and specialty trucks saw their market shares decrease from the previous quarter, as the dump truck demand proved more resilient. The growth rates for all heavy truck types continued to decline during the quarter.
Three factors influenced the HDT market in Q3’22: COVID, logistics balance, and industrial considerations. Economic growth was mixed, as COVID continued to negatively impact economic performance, as did extreme weather conditions that delayed production and project starts. The more-vehicle-than-freight supply-demand balance remains a drag, and high oil prices pressured rates and reduced carrier profits.
The China CV OUTLOOK, jointly published quarterly by ACT and China’s State Information Center (SIC), includes a review and forecast of China’s heavy tractor and heavy and medium duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China and an overview of the Chinese macroeconomy. This quarterly report also includes access to monthly by-OEM wholesale data, alternative fuels market shares by CV application, market share percentages, industrial policy impacts, and an overview of the competitive landscape.
SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.
Click here to learn more information about ACT's China Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK
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