Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 16.5k units in March, down 5.9% y/y, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
“While uncertainty and a weak seasonal period have made parsing the tea leaves more challenging, cancellations at a 20-month high may indicate customers are pulling back on orders given the increasingly pessimistic outlook,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Tractor orders of 12.2k units this month were essentially flat y/y, up 0.9%. Vocational truck orders decreased 21% y/y, totaling 4.2k units.”
“Trump’s takeover of the CHIPS Act funding, freezing funds related to the IRA and IIJA acts, and the review of EPA’27 have taken tailwinds out of our forecast coming into 2025,” he continued.
Regarding medium duty, Vieth added, “Total Classes 5-7 orders decreased 33% y/y to 18.6k units. MD orders have slowed through the past four months, as current bloated inventories and a weaker economic outlook weigh on new orders.”
State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report Overview
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
March preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were 16,000 units, down 8.3% y/y. Complete industry data for March, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-April.
“The first quarter of 2025 has been defined by one word: uncertainty,” shared Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. He continued, “Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity, private fleets’ pausing expansion, or a response to trade and policy uncertainty is difficult to surmise and remains an open question. In March, Class 8 orders decreased 8.3% y/y to 16,000 units. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders were up slightly, increasing 1.1% from February to 16,500 units (198k SAAR), one of the lowest 1-month SAAR readings in almost three years.”
Regarding medium duty, he added, “ACT's preliminary look at March NA Classes 5-7 orders put the month's volume at 18,600 orders, down 33% y/y. Seasonally adjusted, Classes 5-7 orders rose 6.2% m/m to 16,800 units, a 201k SAAR.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 16.5k, -5.9% y/y
Tractor Orders: 12.2k, +0.9% y/y
Vocational Truck Orders: 4.2k, -21% y/y
Classes 5-7:
Net Orders: 18.6k, -33% y/y
Click here to learn more information about ACT's State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Vehicles data.
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