March preliminary North America Class 8 net orders of 37.2k units increased 126% y/y. Complete industry data for March, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-April.
“After one of the best Class 8 order numbers in history in February, it is little surprise March preliminary data retreated, but only slightly, to a still very strong 37,200 units,” shared Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Though, as we exit ‘order season’ (September to March), and in recognition of significant backlog building since December, order strength is likely to move off current levels on typical seasonality. The Iran war poses major risks to the economic outlook, but tight for-hire capacity and a return of the driver shortage have helped insulate spot rates from the negative impacts of rising diesel prices.”
Regarding medium duty, he added, “Preliminary Classes 5-7 orders rose 4.5% y/y to 19,300 units in March, but like last month’s orders, the positive y/y differential lends itself more to easy comps than a meaningful demand inflection. Concerns over the K-shaped economy will impact medium duty more than heavy duty, as less wealthy households cut back on the services supported by MD trucks.”
State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report Overview
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 46,440 units in February, up 157% y/y, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
“Buoyed by a more optimistic for-hire outlook, the need to refresh an aging fleet, and regulatory costs on the horizon, Class 8 order strength continued in February,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Aggregate spot rates, excluding fuel, are up roughly ~40¢ since late November, and ended February up 20% y/y. While some of this strength is weather-related, the responsiveness of rates despite flat demand suggests capacity is tightening and the market is approaching balance. Rates should ease as weather conditions normalize, but with more aggressive FMCSA enforcement on nondomiciled drivers, along with the upcoming produce season and Roadcheck, the window for material declines appears limited.”
Regarding medium duty, Vieth added, “Total Classes 5-7 orders rose 10% y/y to 17,919 units. After gradually slowing through 2025 on tariffs and sagging consumer sentiment, the recent improvement likely reflects resilient consumer spending and some regulation-driven dealer stocking.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 46,440
Classes 5-7:
Net Orders: 17,919
Click here to learn more information about ACT's State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Vehicles data.
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