Final February Class 8 net orders, at 27,745 units were up 16% y/y. Total Classes 5-7 orders were up 8.6% y/y at 19,127 units, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
“Given ongoing weak for-hire economics, we believe private fleet capacity additions continue as the driver of US tractor orders above replacement levels,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “US tractor orders totaled 17,213 units, up 32% y/y. The vocational market remains strong, particularly in the US, where nearshoring and government programs have spurred investment.”
“Coupling a declining US tractor sales trend in 2H’23, and the seasonally weakest time of the year for Class 8 retail sales in the year’s first trimester, with strong production expectations, conditions were ripe for a large inventory jump in Q1’24,” Vieth continued. “Even as sales have remained at seasonally healthy rates, February production pushed Class 8 inventories to a four-year high of 73,900 units, up 7,705 units or 12% m/m and 24% y/y.”
Regarding Classes 5-7, he concluded, “MD inventories remained at highly elevated levels in February, as medium-duty bodybuilder labor challenges persist. Inventories totaled 86,420 units on a nominal basis, up 27% y/y.”
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
January preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were 27,700 units, up 600 units from January and 16% from a year ago. Complete industry data for February, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-March.
“Weak freight and carrier profitability fundamentals, and large carriers guiding to lower capex in 2024, would imply pressure in US tractor, the NA Class 8 market’s largest segment,” shared Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “While we do not yet have the underlying detail for February order volumes, Class 8 demand continuing at high levels again this month suggests that US buyers continue as strong market participants.”
With the fourth largest seasonal factor of the year at 8%, seasonal adjustment reduces February’s Class 8 intake to 25,600 units (307k SAAR), up 5% from January.
He added, “NA Classes 5-7 net orders were 18,800 units in February, up 7% y/y. February’s medium duty net order seasonal factor, at 5%, is the fifth strongest of the year, thereby lowering the seasonally adjusted order tally to 17,900 units, down 13% m/m, and the lowest seasonally adjusted tally in 13 months.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 27,745 units, +16% y/y
Inventories: 73,900 units, +24% y/y
Classes 5-7:
Net Orders: 19,127 units, +8.6% y/y
Inventories: 86,420 units, +27% y/y
Click here to learn more information about ACT's State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Vehicles data.
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