We take a bottom‑up approach, starting with a stock-replacement model identifying the number of vehicles that needs replaced each year, then reviewing and incorporating macro‑economic indicators (GDP, industrial production, interest rates), freight demand metrics (spot and contract volumes) and regulatory developments to model supply and demand, as well as order backlogs, production schedules and sales activity for OEMs. Our analysts have decades of industry experience and maintain direct contact with fleets, dealers and suppliers, giving us insights beyond the data the OEMs provide and the publicly available data.