Dry Van Rates

Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector

September 2025 Update

As of August 2025, the dry van truckload (TL) sector remains constrained by sluggish freight demand, persistent cost pressures, and ongoing market imbalance. Despite temporary support from pre-tariff shipping, there has been no meaningful rebound in discretionary or retail-related volumes. August data from ACT Research’s Freight Forecast reflects soft fundamentals, with capacity still loose and fleet sentiment increasingly cautious.

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates fell 2¢ in August to $1.62 per mile, reversing the modest gains seen earlier in the summer. The seasonally adjusted load-to-truck ratio remained elevated but has failed to translate into sustained pricing power. With regional activity cooling and no major restocking cycle in sight, spot market momentum is waning.

Inventory drawdowns across the retail sector continue to weigh on load volumes, and the absence of peak season restocking limits upside potential. As the pre-tariff shipping tailwind fades, rate pressure is expected to intensify through Q4, particularly if macroeconomic conditions soften further.

Contract Market Rates

Dry van contract rates were unchanged in August at $2.14 per mile, holding flat for a sixth consecutive month. The spread between contract and spot narrowed to 36¢, driven by the spot rate decline. Contract negotiations remain challenging, with shippers leveraging weak demand conditions and elevated private fleet capacity to maintain pricing leverage.

For-hire carriers continue to face tight margins and limited volume opportunities. As a result, contract fleets are focused on tactical efficiency, lifecycle management, and cost control—rather than growth or network expansion.

Outlook

The dry van TL market remains in a defensive holding pattern. Spot rate weakness is expected to persist into the fall, and contract pricing shows no signs of upward movement. With consumer demand subdued, retail inventories lean, and EPA 2027 rules still unresolved, the investment environment remains cautious.

Fleets are increasingly prioritizing operational flexibility and selective asset replacement over expansion strategies. Unless tariff or regulatory headwinds ease materially, the dry van segment is likely to remain oversupplied and margin-constrained well into 2026.

To see how dry van rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.