Dry Van Rates

Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector

October 2025 Update

As of September 2025, the dry van truckload (TL) sector continues to face muted freight demand, tariff-driven cost inflation, and persistent market imbalance. A short-lived pre-tariff shipping bump provided temporary rate support early in the quarter, but underlying freight fundamentals remain soft. According to ACT Research’s October Freight Forecast, fleet sentiment has weakened as capacity continues to exceed freight volumes and regulatory and political uncertainty keeps new investment subdued.

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates rose 1¢ m/m in September to $1.63 per mile, net fuel—up 2.5% year over year—but remain well below long-term seasonal norms. DAT load postings climbed 40% y/y, while equipment postings fell 26% y/y, reflecting the effects of temporary pre-tariff shipping and emerging capacity tightening. However, the underlying demand environment remains weak, and without a significant restocking cycle, spot rate momentum is expected to fade as pre-tariff volumes unwind through Q4.

Retail and consumer goods shipments continue to lag historical patterns, with lean inventories and restrained discretionary spending limiting freight recovery. ACT notes that the market feels “reminiscent of Roadcheck” conditions—brief tightening followed by renewed weakness. Rate pressure is likely to build again into early 2026 as elevated costs and slowing goods demand converge.

ACT Research September 2025 DAT Dry Van Spot Rates

Contract Market Rates

Dry van contract rates held steady at $2.13 per mile, net fuel, in September—unchanged from August and up 0.1% y/y. The spot/contract spread remained flat at 34¢, indicating limited pricing momentum despite tightening supply signals.

Shippers remain firmly in control of contract negotiations, aided by soft volumes and lingering private fleet capacity. ACT’s October outlook shows most shippers planning 2–4% contract rate increases in 2026, consistent with prior guidance but still below inflation-adjusted cost growth.

For-hire carriers continue to operate in a low-margin environment, prioritizing asset efficiency, lifecycle management, and operating cost containment. Many fleets are extending trade cycles amid elevated truck prices and tariff uncertainty, maintaining a cautious stance toward equipment investment.

Outlook

The dry van TL market remains in a defensive holding pattern as spot and contract rates hover near cyclical lows. Pre-tariff shipping provided a short-term lift, but fading demand and constrained margins are once again defining the sector’s trajectory.

With consumer spending subdued, inventories lean, and the EPA 2027 low-NOx rule still unresolved, fleet investment remains restrained. Tariff-driven equipment inflation and higher financing costs continue to suppress replacement activity.

Unless the Supreme Court overturns the current §232 heavy truck tariffs or broader economic conditions improve, the dry van segment is expected to remain oversupplied, margin-constrained, and replacement-focused well into 2026.

To see how dry van rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.