Refrigerated Rates

Reefer Truckload (TL) Sector – December 2025

The reefer market remained relatively stable into December, supported by core food and pharmaceutical freight, but underlying conditions weakened as seasonal demand tapered and excess capacity re-emerged. ACT Research’s December Freight Forecast shows that while early-winter weather disruptions briefly tightened availability and lifted spot rates, the broader reefer demand environment remains soft as consumer spending moderates and post–pre-tariff payback continues. Reefer continues to outperform other TL segments on relative stability, but pricing power remains constrained by ample capacity and uneven freight fundamentals.

Spot Market Rates

Reefer spot rates firmed briefly in early December alongside winter weather disruptions and holiday-related food movement, but ACT expects this tightening to be temporary. As weather normalizes and seasonal demand fades after the holidays, rates are projected to soften again toward late-summer baselines.

Load activity showed short-term improvement tied to weather-driven dislocations, but underlying trends continue to point lower as produce season winds down and equipment availability increases. ACT notes that despite episodic tightening, the reefer segment remains structurally oversupplied.

Food and pharmaceutical freight continue to provide a stable base of demand, but volumes tied to beverages, consumer-packaged goods, and discretionary perishables remain soft. This imbalance continues to cap sustained rate momentum.

Contract Market Rates

Reefer contract rates remained largely unchanged through December. Shippers continue to use soft volumes and ample capacity to limit rate escalation, even as refrigerated carriers face rising costs for insurance, maintenance, compliance, and labor.

Stable demand from essential cold-chain freight continues to provide a pricing floor, but carriers report limited success securing contract increases. ACT’s December outlook continues to point to flat contract pricing into early 2026, with meaningful upward pressure unlikely until capacity tightens more decisively.

Outlook

The reefer segment remains more insulated than dry van or flatbed due to its essential freight base, but overall pricing power remains limited. December’s spot rate gains were driven primarily by winter weather and seasonal timing rather than fundamental demand improvement, and ACT expects pricing to soften again as those effects fade.

Looking ahead to 2026, tariff-driven equipment cost inflation, elevated insurance and maintenance expenses, and lingering uncertainty around EPA 2027 will continue to shape fleet investment decisions. Many refrigerated fleets are extending trade cycles, limiting new purchases, and prioritizing asset reliability and uptime over expansion.

Absent a sustained rebound in consumer-driven cold-chain demand or a sharper reduction in reefer capacity, ACT Research expects the reefer market to remain flat to slightly weaker into early 2026, with more durable improvement pushed toward midyear as capacity contraction gradually takes hold.

To see how reefer rates are projected to evolve, and for detailed TL, LTL, and intermodal forecasts, see ACT’s Freight & Transportation Forecast.