Trucking Industry Forecast for 2027

Trucking Industry 2027 Outlook - August 2025

The trucking industry’s outlook for 2027 is increasingly defined by uncertainty at the policy level and conservatism at the fleet level. While underlying market conditions are gradually stabilizing, long-range planning remains difficult due to a lack of regulatory clarity and ongoing cost pressures. The long-anticipated EPA 2027 emissions rules are now in question, and fleets are adjusting their capital strategies accordingly—delaying large-scale investments and focusing on replacement-driven orders.

Production and order trends suggest a continued shift toward cautious fleet renewal heading into 2027. Class 8 backlogs have fallen to multi-year lows, and OEMs are prioritizing backlog alignment over volume growth. Medium-duty and trailer segments are similarly focused on steady replacement rather than expansion. Freight markets have yet to show signs of a broad rebound, and until they do, fleets are expected to maintain a defensive posture.

3 Key Trends Impacting Trucking & Transportation in 2027

1. Fleet Planning Under Regulatory Uncertainty

With EPA 2027 rules under increasing legal and political pressure, many fleets are rethinking their long-term replacement timelines. Prebuy activity has been delayed or paused entirely, with most fleets now awaiting clear federal direction before committing to significant equipment turnover. Tariffs remain a baked-in cost factor, making high-dollar capital planning more difficult. In the absence of regulatory triggers, fleets are focused on minimizing exposure—extending asset life, limiting orders to necessity, and building flexibility into their replacement plans.

2. Infrastructure Investment Supports Targeted Demand

While general freight demand remains subdued, infrastructure-related sectors continue to support steady vocational truck and trailer activity. Public procurement and replacement cycles in utilities, construction, and municipal services are expected to sustain moderate demand levels heading into 2027. That said, the pace of new infrastructure project starts has slowed, and budget uncertainty could limit upside. Fleets tied to these segments are investing selectively, taking advantage of more favorable dealer inventories and lead times, but remain sensitive to pricing and policy delays.

3. Profitability, Pricing Pressure, and Capital Discipline

Carrier profitability remains a key constraint on industry momentum. Public TL fleets have now reported 12 straight quarters of y/y margin declines, and there's little evidence of a near-term rate recovery. Cost structures remain inflated due to tariffs, labor, and regulatory preparation—despite weak spot and contract pricing. As a result, capital discipline remains a core theme entering 2027. Most fleets are choosing targeted equipment upgrades over fleet expansion, with a focus on fuel efficiency, maintenance reduction, and network performance rather than growth or scale.