Trucking Industry Forecast for 2027

Trucking Industry 2027 Outlook

September 2025

Updated: September 17, 2025

The trucking industry’s outlook for 2027 remains defined by regulatory uncertainty and a defensive approach from fleets. While underlying conditions are stabilizing, long-term planning is constrained by tariff-driven cost inflation, soft freight demand, and unclear emissions timelines. The EPA’s 2027 low-NOx mandate is now facing strong legal and political headwinds, leaving fleets hesitant to commit to large-scale equipment turnover. Instead, strategies are centered on selective replacement and preserving financial flexibility.

Production and order patterns reflect this cautious posture. Class 8 backlogs are at their lowest point since 2016, with OEMs cutting build schedules to match limited demand. Medium-duty and trailer activity remains centered on replacement rather than growth, with reefer and infrastructure-related equipment offering relative stability. Freight markets have yet to show consistent recovery, reinforcing a conservative stance across the industry heading into 2027.

3 Key Trends Impacting Trucking & Transportation in 2027

1. Fleet Planning Under Regulatory Uncertainty
EPA 2027 compliance remains unsettled, with fleets widely expecting delay or modification. Prebuy strategies are effectively on hold, and most carriers are extending trade cycles until federal direction becomes clearer. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported trucks continue to inflate costs, further complicating long-range capital planning. In this environment, fleets are focusing on essential replacements, asset life extension, and optionality in renewal strategies to mitigate risk.

2. Infrastructure Investment Supports Targeted Demand
Infrastructure-linked sectors remain a bright spot, providing steady if unspectacular demand for vocational trucks and trailers. Utilities, municipal fleets, and construction-related buyers continue to support baseline activity, but project funding and budget delays are tempering upside. Fleets tied to these sectors are investing selectively, taking advantage of stabilizing dealer inventories and shorter lead times, while staying cautious on cost and policy volatility.

3. Profitability, Pricing Pressure, and Capital Discipline
Carrier profitability remains a critical constraint. Public TL fleets have now logged three consecutive years of y/y margin compression, as costs tied to tariffs, labor, and compliance preparation outpace weak spot and contract pricing. With limited pricing power, fleets are prioritizing capital discipline, directing investment toward efficiency gains—such as fuel economy, maintenance savings, and network optimization—rather than fleet expansion. Growth ambitions remain sidelined until freight markets show durable improvement.