Trucking Industry Forecast for 2025

The U.S. trucking industry has moved past the bottoming phase of the truckload cycle seen in early 2023 and is now navigating a slow rebalancing process as of December 2024. Progress continues, but challenges such as high interest rates and inventory overhangs are shaping the pace of recovery.

Looking ahead to 2025, the North American trucking industry faces a multifaceted landscape influenced by economic moderation, regulatory impacts, and market realignments. Key factors such as freight demand, equipment production, and macroeconomic shifts will present a blend of opportunities and hurdles.

Trucking Industry Outlook – May 2025

Economic Overview

The U.S. economy enters mid-2025 facing elevated uncertainty and increasing signs of strain. Consumer spending has continued to cool, with inflationary pressures from tariffs further eroding purchasing power. The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs enacted in early May provided a brief reprieve, but core tariff structures—particularly on autos, aluminum, and steel—remain firmly in place. These measures are contributing to higher production costs and continue to disrupt established trade flows across key freight-linked sectors.

Core PCE inflation ticked higher through April, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed has adopted a more cautious tone as economic momentum slows. Real GDP growth remains weak, and high-frequency indicators show declines in business investment, slipping consumer sentiment, and a softer labor market—all of which are weighing on freight activity.

Trade policy remains a key headwind. While temporary relief was extended to certain North American partners, tariffs on China have been raised further, and additional duties across pharmaceuticals, electronics, and lumber remain under active review. The resulting policy instability is limiting long-term visibility for carriers, shippers, and equipment buyers alike.

Transportation Sector and Freight Trends

Freight Demand Moderation

Freight volumes remain subdued, with continued softness across industrial and retail sectors. Load-to-truck ratios rose in May during Roadcheck week and with the seasonal produce cycle, but underlying freight conditions remain tepid. Private fleets continue to capture a larger share of volume, and for-hire carriers face margin compression. Inventory destocking is ongoing, and restocking cycles remain constrained by trade uncertainty and rising input costs.

Capacity Rebalancing in Progress

Capacity remains elevated but is beginning to normalize gradually. Class 8 build rates declined further in April to 801 units/day, and used equipment activity has increased, helping reduce excess inventory. Retail sales remain weak, and order intake is among the lowest in years. While April’s load-to-truck ratio held near seasonal norms, softening demand and fading pre-tariff effects could loosen spot conditions further without additional volume support.

Spot Rate Volatility

Spot rates rose modestly in May but began to soften again in early June. The temporary lift from produce and Roadcheck is waning, and broader market conditions remain soft. Flatbed and reefer rates posted slight gains, while dry van rates were largely flat after adjusting for seasonality. Tariff-related equipment costs and emissions-related uncertainty continue to add structural pressure, but near-term rate momentum remains regionally fragmented.

Class 8 Trucks

Class 8 demand continued to weaken into May, with net orders among the lowest in recent history. High inventories, soft retail volumes, and margin compression are limiting replacement activity. Tariff-driven cost inflation and policy uncertainty tied to EPA 2027 regulations are dampening fleet confidence. Cancellations rose again, and OEMs are adjusting labor levels in response to extended softness. Vocational demand has begun to slow as infrastructure-related momentum fades and government project delays increase.

Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5–7)

The medium-duty segment remains under pressure. May order levels were still well below replacement demand, and April net orders stood near 8,700 units. While body-builder capacity has improved, excess dealer inventory and elevated prices are keeping buyers cautious. Purchasing is focused on essential replacements, and there are few signs of a broader recovery in fleet expansion.

Trailers

Trailer production remained steady in April, with manufacturers fulfilling backlog orders, but new intake remains soft. The typical spring ordering surge failed to materialize, particularly in the dry van segment. Refrigerated and vocational trailer orders have been more stable, reflecting stronger activity in food-related and infrastructure markets. Rising aluminum and steel costs continue to pressure OEM and dealer margins, contributing to restrained order activity.

Regulatory and Market Drivers

Tariff-related cost increases remain a core concern. Recent ACT estimates show per-unit price impacts of approximately $360 for tractors and over $570 for trailers, driven by component and raw material tariffs. These pressures are compressing fleet profitability and altering capital planning timelines.

EPA 2027 compliance remains uncertain. While a rollback remains unlikely, the combination of legal review and political challenges has delayed clarity. Fleets are holding off on strategic investments as prebuying remains on pause amid policy ambiguity.

Labor remains a secondary factor in market outlooks. Proposed immigration constraints could affect driver availability over time, but near-term effects are minimal. Recruiting and compliance costs are still rising, and these are being felt most acutely among small and midsize carriers managing tight margins.