Trucking Industry Forecast for 2025

The U.S. trucking industry has moved beyond the sharp contraction phase of 2023 and into an extended correction cycle as of September 2025. While capacity is beginning to tighten gradually, freight volumes remain soft and tariff-driven cost pressures continue to weigh on margins, keeping the pace of rebalancing slow and uneven.

Looking ahead to 2026, the North American trucking industry faces a highly uncertain environment shaped by trade policy outcomes, regulatory clarity on EPA 2027 emissions standards, and the trajectory of consumer demand. Key factors such as freight recovery timing, Class 8 production trends, and macroeconomic policy shifts will determine whether the industry stabilizes or remains mired in a prolonged low-growth phase.

Trucking Industry Outlook

December 2025
Updated December 22, 2025

Economic Overview

The U.S. economy enters the final weeks of 2025 with momentum slowing but still positive, as multiple sectors show clear signs of cooling. Hiring has decelerated, wage growth has leveled off, manufacturing remains weak, and housing activity continues to contract under affordability pressures. Personal consumption is holding, supported disproportionately by higher-income households, but the pace of spending has moderated noticeably. Inflation has eased from earlier peaks but remains elevated relative to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with tariff-driven goods inflation pushing some pressures into 2026.

Freight-intensive sectors—including manufacturing, housing, and goods-oriented retail—continue to lag the broader economy. Imports and intermodal volumes have softened further, reflecting both tariff impacts and payback from mid-year pre-tariff pull-forward activity. ACT Research notes that while consumer resilience has exceeded expectations in parts of the holiday season, underlying goods demand remains fragile heading into 2026.

The §232 heavy-vehicle tariffs are now fully embedded in equipment pricing, materially raising the cost of new trucks and trailers—particularly for units sourced from Mexico. While the Supreme Court may rule on the IEEPA tariffs in 2026, §232 tariffs remain outside that decision and will continue to pressure equipment costs regardless of the outcome.

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady, but a softening labor market—marked by slowing payroll growth and rising job cuts—has increased expectations for rate cuts in 2026. ACT expects any monetary easing to support freight demand only with a lag, leaving near-term conditions subdued.

Transportation Sector and Freight Trends

Freight Demand Moderation

Freight volumes remained soft through November and into December, as pre-tariff activity fully unwound and seasonal demand slowed. DAT load postings remained elevated on a year-over-year basis but softened month-over-month as capacity re-entered the market outside of weather-driven disruptions. Industrial, consumer, and cross-border freight flows all weakened, with ACT noting that much of December’s rate improvement was driven by winter storms rather than structural demand strength.

Private fleets continue to gain share, supported by stable service networks and higher driver pay. With for-hire carriers still operating at recession-level margins, competitive pressure remains intense—particularly in dry van and general merchandise freight.

Capacity Rebalancing in Progress

Capacity tightening continues, driven primarily by historically weak profitability and sharply reduced Class 8 production. The highway Class 8 tractor fleet is now contracting at an accelerating pace, with monthly declines set to increase further in 2026. Tractor inventories are gradually normalizing as OEMs maintain disciplined build schedules, while vocational inventories remain elevated and slower to correct.

Used truck prices softened again in recent months, reflecting lingering oversupply and demand payback from pre-tariff shipping. While capacity contraction is real and ongoing, ACT notes that supply still exceeds freight demand—prolonging the rebalancing process.

Spot Rate Volatility

Spot truckload rates moved sharply higher in early December as multiple winter storms disrupted operations across the Midwest during a seasonally tight period. Load rejections increased and routing guides came under stress, producing a short-term spike in spot pricing. ACT cautions that this strength is temporary and expects rates to ease as weather normalizes and post-holiday demand fades.

Despite recent volatility, spot rates remain well below historical seasonal norms. A sustained rate recovery remains tied to continued fleet contraction and a gradual demand recovery expected over the course of 2026.

Class 8 Trucks

Class 8 demand remains deeply challenged. November net orders totaled roughly 19,500 units, down year-over-year in what is typically one of the strongest ordering months of the year. Tractor orders were particularly weak, reflecting poor carrier profitability, elevated equipment costs, and lingering uncertainty around tariffs and EPA 2027.

OEMs continue to operate with conservative build plans. Backlogs have stabilized primarily due to production cuts rather than improving demand, and the backlog-to-build ratio remains historically low. Tractor inventories are gradually correcting, while vocational inventories remain elevated. With higher prices now locked in for 2026 and beyond, fleet purchasing remains focused almost exclusively on essential replacement.

Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5–7)

Medium-duty market conditions remain soft. Orders improved modestly in November but continue to trail historical norms amid slowing services growth, cautious consumers, and weak construction activity. Inventories remain elevated despite production cuts, and body-builder constraints continue to limit throughput.

Retail sales softened, and inventory-to-sales ratios remain above comfortable levels, signaling continued imbalance heading into 2026.

Trailers

The trailer market remains fundamentally weak despite a modest uptick in late-2025 orders. Net orders declined again in November, and backlogs remain near historic lows entering 2026. OEMs report 2026 orderboards as “subpar,” with little urgency among fleets to commit capital amid weak profitability and excess parked capacity.

Dry van and reefer trailers remain the weakest segments, while flatbeds continue to outperform on relatively easier comparisons. Overall BL/BU ratios remain well below long-term averages, reinforcing cautious production plans.

Regulatory and Market Drivers

Tariffs & Cost Inflation

Tariffs remain the dominant source of cost inflation. The §232 heavy-vehicle tariffs continue to add materially to equipment prices, especially for Mexico-sourced units. Combined with elevated insurance, financing, and operating costs, fleet capital budgets remain under significant strain.

EPA 2027 Compliance

Regulatory clarity improved modestly in November, with indications that EPA intends to maintain core technology requirements while removing or revising warranty extensions. While this reduces some uncertainty, higher equipment prices in 2027 now appear inevitable. Prebuying remains a downside risk but is constrained by weak fleet balance sheets.

Labor Dynamics

Driver availability remains near neutral. Softer freight volumes have reduced hiring pressure, while higher private-fleet pay continues to draw drivers away from for-hire carriers. Demographic challenges persist longer term, but ACT expects capacity tightening—rather than labor scarcity—to be the primary driver of the next rate cycle.

2025 Summary

The trucking industry exits 2025 after one of the longest and most challenging downcycles on record. The year was defined by weak freight demand, elevated costs, tariff-driven uncertainty, and sustained margin pressure across for-hire carriers. While pre-tariff activity created temporary volume and rate distortions mid-year, those gains proved short-lived, leaving the industry to confront excess capacity, constrained capital spending, and cautious fleet behavior. Importantly, 2025 also marked the beginning of a structural capacity contraction that is set to intensify in 2026—laying the groundwork for eventual recovery, but only after the industry works through continued demand softness and policy-driven headwinds.