Trucking Industry Forecast for 2025

The U.S. trucking industry has moved past the bottoming phase of the truckload cycle seen in early 2023 and is now navigating a slow rebalancing process as of December 2024. Progress continues, but challenges such as high interest rates and inventory overhangs are shaping the pace of recovery.

Looking ahead to 2025, the North American trucking industry faces a multifaceted landscape influenced by economic moderation, regulatory impacts, and market realignments. Key factors such as freight demand, equipment production, and macroeconomic shifts will present a blend of opportunities and hurdles.

Trucking Industry Outlook – May 2025

Economic Overview

The U.S. economy enters Q2 2025 facing elevated uncertainty and increasing signs of strain. Early-year consumer spending has cooled, with inflationary pressures from tariffs continuing to erode purchasing power. The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs enacted in early May provided a brief reprieve, but core tariff structures—particularly on autos, aluminum, and steel—remain firmly in place. These measures are contributing to higher production costs and disrupting established trade flows across key freight-linked sectors.

Core PCE inflation ticked higher in March, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed has adopted a more cautious tone as recession risk grows. Real GDP is now forecast to decline slightly in Q2, following flat growth in Q1. Consumer sentiment continues to slip, while high-frequency indicators point to slowing business investment and a cooling labor market—both of which are weighing on freight activity.

Trade policy remains a key headwind. While temporary relief was extended to certain North American partners, tariffs on China were further increased, and additional duties across pharmaceuticals, electronics, and lumber are under review. The resulting policy instability is limiting long-term visibility for carriers, shippers, and equipment buyers alike.

Transportation Sector and Freight Trends

Freight Demand Moderation

Freight volumes remain subdued, with ongoing softness across industrial and retail sectors. While early April saw load-to-truck ratios rise slightly—driven by regional produce activity and lingering pre-tariff demand—underlying freight conditions remain tepid. Private fleets continue to capture a larger share of volume, leaving for-hire carriers under margin pressure. Inventory destocking is ongoing, and major restocking cycles remain on hold as cost volatility and trade uncertainty persist.

Capacity Rebalancing in Progress

Capacity remains elevated but is beginning to show signs of normalization. Class 8 build rates declined further in April, and used equipment sales have picked up, helping to clear excess inventory. However, with retail sales still soft and order activity slowing, capacity reductions are unfolding gradually. The April load-to-truck ratio held near seasonal norms, but as pre-tariff shipping fades, spot market conditions may loosen again without a demand uplift.

Spot Rate Volatility

Spot rates remained flat in April after earlier seasonal strength. Pre-tariff effects have largely passed, and while produce season offers localized rate support, broader freight softness continues to cap upside. Equipment costs and regulatory uncertainty could provide upward rate pressure later in the year, but the near-term outlook remains muted. Rate recovery is expected to be inconsistent and heavily tied to regional dynamics.

Class 8 Trucks

Class 8 demand continued to decelerate in April, with net orders falling sharply to multi-year lows. High inventories and soft retail activity are limiting replacement cycles, while elevated per-unit costs—driven by tariffs and pending EPA rules—are weighing on fleet budgets. Vocational truck demand remains steadier, supported by infrastructure spending, but has also begun to show signs of softening. Prebuying for EPA 2027 has not materialized at scale, reflecting uncertainty on both the regulatory and economic fronts.

Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5–7)

The medium-duty market remains challenged, with Q1 order levels well below replacement demand and April trends suggesting continued weakness. Although body-builder capacity has improved, excess inventory and elevated prices are keeping buyers cautious. Most purchasing remains centered on essential replacement needs, with little sign of broader fleet expansion.

Trailers

Trailer production rose modestly in April as OEMs fulfilled earlier backlogs, but new orders remain weak. The traditional spring order season appears to be fading without the usual surge in activity. Dry van demand is particularly soft, while refrigerated and specialized trailer orders are somewhat more resilient. Tariff-driven increases in aluminum and steel costs are pressuring margins and slowing new investment. If freight volumes stabilize in the second half, replacement demand may support a modest rebound.

Regulatory and Market Drivers

Tariff-related cost increases have become a central challenge. ACT Research estimates show per-unit price impacts of ~$360 for Class 8 trucks and over $570 for trailers due to current duties. These added costs are compressing fleet margins and reshaping purchase timing.

The EPA’s 2027 Clean Truck regulations remain a source of uncertainty. While a rollback appears unlikely, implementation delays or revisions remain possible. The resulting ambiguity has dampened prebuy enthusiasm and complicated fleet capital planning.

Labor market developments remain a secondary but notable factor. Proposed immigration limits could affect the driver pool over time, though near-term impacts are minimal. However, rising compliance and recruiting costs are expected to persist, adding pressure to operating models across fleet sizes.