Trucking Industry Forecast for 2025

The U.S. trucking industry has moved beyond the sharp contraction phase of 2023 and into an extended correction cycle as of September 2025. While capacity is beginning to tighten gradually, freight volumes remain soft and tariff-driven cost pressures continue to weigh on margins, keeping the pace of rebalancing slow and uneven.

Looking ahead to 2026, the North American trucking industry faces a highly uncertain environment shaped by trade policy outcomes, regulatory clarity on EPA 2027 emissions standards, and the trajectory of consumer demand. Key factors such as freight recovery timing, Class 8 production trends, and macroeconomic policy shifts will determine whether the industry stabilizes or remains mired in a prolonged low-growth phase.

Trucking Industry Outlook

October 2025

Updated October 23, 2025

Economic Overview

The U.S. economy enters Q4 2025 with mixed momentum—headline growth remains steady, but freight-relevant sectors are losing traction. Inflation is still elevated, driven by tariff-related cost pass-throughs in metals, vehicles, and durable goods, even as wage gains slow and hiring softens.

Real GDP for Q3 is tracking at a moderate pace, sustained by services and public spending, while private domestic demand has slowed to its weakest rate in more than two years. Growth in freight-intensive categories such as construction, manufacturing, and retail goods continues to lag broader activity.

The 232 tariffs on imported trucks and components—set to take effect November 1—are weighing on sentiment across both freight and equipment markets. Roughly one-third of North American Class 8 builds occur in Mexico, leaving fleets exposed to higher acquisition costs unless the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs in early November.

The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for a seventh consecutive meeting but has signaled an intent to begin easing later this year as growth slows and unemployment edges higher. Labor conditions remain softer, with payroll gains below trend and the jobless rate at 4.4%.

Transportation Sector and Freight Trends

Freight Demand Moderation

Freight volumes remained soft in September, as earlier pre-tariff shipping activity faded. Industrial, consumer, and cross-border freight all weakened, leaving for-hire carriers facing lower utilization and thinner margins. Private fleets continue to capture share through contractual stability and operational scale, reinforcing competitive pressure on smaller carriers.

Capacity Rebalancing in Progress

Capacity is beginning to contract, but supply still exceeds demand. Class 8 build activity declined from first-half levels, and OEMs have announced additional reductions for Q4 to align with slower order intake. The Class 8 backlog rose while dealer inventories decreased.

Used truck sales remain active as fleets right-size, but pricing continues to reflect a saturated resale market. OEMs and dealers note gradual normalization, yet supply remains well above equilibrium.

Spot Rate Volatility

Spot rates stabilized in September. Dry van averaged $1.63 per mile, reefer $1.92, and flatbed $2.18, according to DAT data compiled by ACT Research. The modest firming reflected late-quarter shipping and lingering pre-tariff freight but not a fundamental improvement in demand.

National averages remain below seasonal norms, with strength limited to certain Midwest and border markets. Rate stability is expected through early Q4 before renewed softness once tariff-related movements subside.

Class 8 Trucks

Class 8 demand remains subdued. Net orders totaled 20,666 units, down 44% y/y, the weakest September since 2019.

OEMs are maintaining conservative build schedules, and the BL/BU ratio rose to 6.2 months, reflecting reduced output and modest backlog gains. Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the EPA 2027 low-NOx rule continues to restrain fleet investment, keeping the market focused on replacement rather than expansion.

Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5–7)

Medium-duty activity remained soft in September. Net orders totaled 16,133 units, down 19% y/y, consistent with weakness across services, construction, and consumer delivery sectors.

OEMs have trimmed build plans again for Q4 as inventories remain elevated. Fleets continue to prioritize uptime and cost efficiency, avoiding growth-oriented purchases amid uncertain economic and policy conditions.

Trailers

The trailer market softened again in September. Net orders totaled 11.4k units, down 5% y/y, as build continued to exceed new bookings. Backlogs declined 14% y/y, and the BL/BU ratio fell to 3.3 months, well below long-term norms.

Dry van and reefer segments remain weak, while flatbed (platform) orders show a 57% y/y increase on easier comparisons. OEMs are holding to reduced build schedules through early 2026 as they manage inventories and align production with demand.

Regulatory and Market Drivers

Tariffs & Cost Inflation

Tariffs remain the primary inflation driver for trucking and equipment. New 232 duties on imported heavy trucks and components are expected to raise vehicle acquisition costs materially. Combined with high financing and insurance expenses, these pressures are extending fleet trade cycles and increasing reliance on used equipment.

Trade policy volatility—especially around retaliatory measures from Canada and China—continues to cloud the near-term outlook for freight volumes and OEM demand.

EPA 2027 Compliance

Uncertainty surrounding the EPA 2027 low-NOx standards continues to delay ordering decisions. Although industry groups have petitioned for a multi-year implementation delay, no official action has been taken. The lack of clarity has eliminated near-term prebuy incentives, leading most fleets to defer capital commitments until the policy path becomes clearer.

Labor Dynamics

Driver availability remained stable in September, with ACT’s Driver Availability Index at 49.5, indicating near balance between hiring and exits. Softer freight volumes have reduced immediate recruiting pressure, though long-term concerns persist as demographics and immigration limits constrain the driver pipeline.

Fleets are managing labor costs through attrition, targeted recruitment, and greater use of technology for route optimization and safety compliance. Employment is holding steady, but wage growth and benefits costs continue to outpace productivity gains.