Trucking Industry Forecast for 2025

The U.S. trucking industry has moved past the bottoming phase of the truckload cycle seen in early 2023 and is now navigating a slow rebalancing process as of December 2024. Progress continues, but challenges such as high interest rates and inventory overhangs are shaping the pace of recovery.

Looking ahead to 2025, the North American trucking industry faces a multifaceted landscape influenced by economic moderation, regulatory impacts, and market realignments. Key factors such as freight demand, equipment production, and macroeconomic shifts will present a blend of opportunities and hurdles.

Trucking Industry Outlook – July 2025

Economic Overview

The U.S. economy enters mid-summer 2025 under growing pressure, as consumer demand continues to cool and inflationary effects from tariffs persist. Although the 90-day tariff pause implemented in May briefly relieved near-term cost pressures, core tariffs on autos, steel, aluminum, and select consumer goods remain in place, contributing to elevated production costs and dampening trade across freight-relevant sectors.

Core PCE inflation remained elevated through May, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the sixth consecutive meeting. However, the Fed has signaled a more cautious tone amid signs of decelerating growth. High-frequency indicators now show declines in consumer confidence, slowing business investment, and a modestly weakening labor market, all of which are contributing to subdued freight activity and weaker freight market sentiment.

Trade policy continues to cloud long-term planning. While temporary relief for certain North American partners remains in effect, tariffs on China were expanded in June, and new duties on electronics, pharmaceuticals, and building materials are under active review. The resulting policy instability continues to limit visibility for fleets, shippers, and OEMs, making it difficult to forecast equipment demand or supply chain flows with confidence.

Transportation Sector and Freight Trends

Freight Demand Moderation

Freight volumes remained subdued in June, with ongoing weakness in both industrial and consumer sectors. Load-to-truck ratios fell modestly following the typical Roadcheck and produce season spikes seen in May. For-hire carriers continue to experience margin pressure, while private fleets remain more insulated due to controlled freight exposure. Inventory destocking persists, and restocking remains muted as companies weigh trade volatility and inflationary pressures.

Capacity Rebalancing in Progress

Capacity remains elevated but is gradually rebalancing. Class 8 build rates declined further in May, and the used truck market has seen rising transaction volumes, helping reduce excess inventory. New equipment orders remain near multi-year lows, and OEMs are responding with selective production slowdowns. Without a significant demand catalyst, spot conditions could loosen further in the second half of the year.

Spot Rate Volatility

Spot rates were flat to down slightly in June, as the brief lift from seasonal produce and Roadcheck faded. Flatbed rates declined, reefer rates plateaued, and dry van saw only minor gains. Equipment costs tied to tariffs and emissions-related technology continue to add structural cost pressure, but with demand still soft, carriers have limited pricing leverage. Regional imbalances remain, but overall momentum is weak.

Class 8 Trucks

Class 8 demand softened further in June, with net orders still near recent historic lows. Cancellations increased for the second consecutive month, and OEMs have begun adjusting production schedules and labor in response. High inventories, flat retail activity, and margin compression continue to suppress replacement appetite. Tariff-driven price increases, coupled with regulatory ambiguity around EPA 2027, are keeping many fleets sidelined. Vocational demand is also weakening, with delays in infrastructure disbursements affecting previously stable segments.

Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5–7)

The medium-duty market remains subdued. June orders stayed well below replacement demand, and while body-builder capacity and delivery lead times have improved, buyers remain conservative due to high prices and excess dealer inventory. Most fleets are focusing on essential replacements only, with minimal signs of new expansion activity. Public sector procurement has also slowed, reflecting budget uncertainty.

Trailers

Trailer production was steady in May, but new order intake continues to underperform. The typical spring order ramp-up failed to materialize, particularly in the dry van segment, where market sentiment remains weak. Reefer and vocational trailer orders were more resilient, tied to food and infrastructure-related demand. However, tariff-driven component costs, especially for aluminum and steel, are compressing OEM and dealer margins, contributing to muted order activity.

Regulatory and Market Drivers

Tariff-related cost inflation remains a significant headwind. ACT Research estimates June per-unit increases of roughly $375 for tractors and over $580 for trailers, driven by higher component and material costs. These increases are putting additional pressure on already thin fleet margins and delaying investment decisions.

EPA 2027 compliance remains in limbo. Legal and political uncertainty continues, with no formal rollback but ongoing delays in guidance and enforcement clarity. This has effectively pushed prebuying expectations into 2027 and left most fleets in wait-and-see mode regarding long-term equipment strategy.

Labor remains a secondary factor but is becoming more relevant in long-term outlooks. Proposed immigration constraints could impact driver availability later in the year, but near-term labor supply is adequate, with recruiting costs still elevated, particularly for smaller carriers operating with compressed margins.