Trucking Industry Forecast for 2025

The U.S. trucking industry has moved beyond the sharp contraction phase of 2023 and into an extended correction cycle as of September 2025. While capacity is beginning to tighten gradually, freight volumes remain soft and tariff-driven cost pressures continue to weigh on margins, keeping the pace of rebalancing slow and uneven.

Looking ahead to 2026, the North American trucking industry faces a highly uncertain environment shaped by trade policy outcomes, regulatory clarity on EPA 2027 emissions standards, and the trajectory of consumer demand. Key factors such as freight recovery timing, Class 8 production trends, and macroeconomic policy shifts will determine whether the industry stabilizes or remains mired in a prolonged low-growth phase.

Trucking Industry Outlook

September 2025

Updated September 17, 2025

Economic Overview
The U.S. economy enters September 2025 under mounting pressure from tariffs, slowing consumer momentum, and weakening industrial activity. Inflation is edging higher again, particularly in goods categories tied to tariffs, even as the labor market shows clear signs of softening. In Q2, real GDP expanded at a 3.3% SAAR, but trade-driven gains masked sluggish domestic demand, with sales to private domestic purchasers up just 1.3%—the weakest pace in more than two years.

Tariffs remain a persistent inflationary headwind. Expanded duties on steel, aluminum, and copper are now weighing on both freight and equipment sectors, while reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of goods are disrupting trade flows. New measures targeting semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are under discussion, while potential tariff relief for housing materials under a proposed “National Housing Emergency” highlights the policy contradictions carriers must navigate.

The Federal Reserve has kept rates steady for a sixth straight meeting but is signaling a pivot toward easing amid growing stagflationary risks. Labor market data weakened further in August, with payroll growth slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.3%. Fed officials are now preparing for sequential rate cuts beginning this fall, aiming to offset tariff-driven shocks while stabilizing growth.

Transportation Sector and Freight Trends

Freight Demand Moderation
Freight volumes remained soft in August, with industrial, retail, and cross-border flows all under pressure. Pre-tariff shipping activity that buoyed volumes earlier this summer is fading, leaving for-hire carriers facing compressed revenue per truck and declining profitability. Private fleets continue to capture share, reinforcing structural challenges for for-hire operators.

Capacity Rebalancing in Progress
Capacity remains in excess, but OEM adjustments are underway. U.S. Class 8 tractor build rates fell 25% from 1H to 2H’25, and further reductions are planned into Q4. Dealer inventories remain heavy, though exports have helped alleviate some overhang. Used truck sales continue to rise as fleets monetize excess assets, but pricing remains weak, reflecting oversupply.

Spot Rate Volatility
Spot rates softened in August. Dry van rates fell 2¢ to $1.62 per mile, reefer rates slipped 5¢ to $1.83, and flatbed held flat month-over-month. Seasonal support is fading, leaving carriers with limited pricing leverage. Regional rate volatility persists, but national averages remain stagnant amid elevated capacity and muted demand.

Class 8 Trucks
Class 8 demand remains weak. Net orders totaled 13,200 units in August, nearly unchanged from July. Seasonal adjustment puts the pace at 182k SAAR, well below replacement levels. Vocational truck demand has softened, with cancellations creeping higher and backlogs now at their lowest since 2016. OEMs continue to trim build schedules, while EPA 2027 uncertainty and potential §232 tariffs further cloud the outlook. Fleets remain cautious, deferring replacement decisions until regulatory clarity improves.

Medium-Duty Vehicles (Classes 5–7)
The medium-duty segment stayed muted in August. Orders came in around 9,500 units, in line with forecasts but reflecting weak demand across services, housing, and municipal sectors. Inventory levels remain elevated, and OEMs have reduced build rates modestly. Buyers remain focused on replacements only, with little sign of growth appetite amid high financing costs and economic uncertainty.

Trailers
The trailer market softened again in August. Net orders were down sharply from June’s high but still up thanks to weak 2024 comps. Daily build rates slowed to 794 units, with OEMs restraining output to align with weaker demand. Backlogs are down year-to-date in tank trailers due to oilfield weakness, while dry van and reefer orders remain sluggish. Tariffs on steel and aluminum are adding further cost burdens, keeping OEMs focused on backlog stability rather than growth.

Regulatory and Market Drivers

Tariffs & Cost Inflation
Tariffs continue to elevate equipment costs by 2–4% for Class 8 and even higher for trailers with heavy steel or aluminum content. This, combined with high interest rates and thin margins, is pushing fleets toward used units and deferring new purchases. Trade policy volatility—including potential §232 tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles—remains the largest near-term risk to demand.

EPA 2027 Compliance
Uncertainty around the 2027 low-NOx mandate is deepening. While no rollback has been confirmed, most fleets expect a delay to 2031 following ATA’s request. This has effectively eliminated near-term prebuy incentives, with fleets postponing large-scale investment decisions until regulatory clarity emerges.

Labor Dynamics
Driver availability improved modestly in August, with ACT’s Driver Availability Index at 49.0—tighter than neutral but not yet restrictive. Recruiting costs remain elevated, but softer freight volumes are easing pressure for now. However, tightening immigration rules are expected to constrain the driver pipeline into 2026, particularly for long-haul carriers. Fleets are managing headcount cautiously through attrition and selective hiring.