Preliminary North America Class 8 net orders in September totaled 18,700 units, down 9.5% year-over-year, according to ACT Research. The softer order intake likely reflects ongoing regulatory uncertainty among fleets, as the EPA has yet to finalize 2027 NOx rules. September typically marks the start of “order season,” but with some OEMs not fully opening their 2027 orderboards, normal seasonal patterns have been disrupted.
“The 2027 regulatory engine transition is clearly impacting order seasonality this year, but the underlying demand for new equipment remains robust, supported by strong spot rate momentum,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Fleets are eager to replace aging equipment and prepare for cost increases on the horizon, but the lack of regulatory clarity is making it difficult for them to plan effectively.”
Based on preliminary September orders and recent OEM build plans, ACT Research expects the Class 8 backlog to decline from August’s level when full September data are released in mid-October.
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 16,951 units in August, up 32% year-over-year but down 34% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report. Total Classes 5-7 orders rose 37% from a year ago, reaching 19,966 units.
Order activity in August reflected typical late-summer seasonality, as well as the impact of full 2026 backlogs and not-yet-open 2027 orderboards. “While sequential weakness in Class 8 orders is in line with normal patterns for this time of year, robust year-over-year gains highlight the continued influence of supply-side freight market constraints and regulatory clarity,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “With spot freight rates up sharply and fleets gaining more planning visibility around EPA 2027 and non-compliance penalties, we expect order activity to rebound as seasonality improves and new year orderboards open.”
Vieth concluded, “Despite increased macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated diesel prices, demand for new equipment remains solid, particularly in the tractor segment, where orders were up 39% year-over-year. Medium-duty order strength appears to be supported by dealer inventory stocking ahead of regulatory changes and higher prices.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 31,751
Classes 5-7:
Net Orders: 21,122
Click here to learn more information about ACT's State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Vehicles data.
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