Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2027

Class 8 Truck Market: 2027 Outlook

January 2026
Updated January 26, 2026

Regulatory Pressures
EPA 2027 remains the defining force shaping the 2027 Class 8 market, with regulatory clarity improving further entering 2026. Industry and ATA communications now strongly suggest the EPA will retain core low-NOx technology requirements while removing or revising extended warranty and useful-life provisions. While this has narrowed the range of regulatory outcomes, it has also solidified expectations that materially higher equipment prices in 2027 are unavoidable. As a result, prebuy activity has begun to re-enter fleet planning discussions but remains measured, constrained by weak carrier profitability, elevated capital costs, and lingering freight uncertainty.

Tariffs continue to represent a significant and persistent cost headwind heading into 2027. §232 heavy-vehicle tariffs—tied directly to foreign-content value—are fully embedded in OEM pricing and continue to raise acquisition costs materially, particularly for Mexico-sourced and mixed-content vehicles. These increases occur before financing, insurance, and compliance costs, further inflating total cost of ownership. With trade policy uncertainty still elevated and tariff relief unlikely, fleet planning remains highly cost-sensitive and conservative.

With regulatory timelines clearer but cost pressures firmly entrenched, fleets are expected to approach 2027 cautiously. While replacement and selective prebuy activity may increase as regulatory deadlines approach, broader expansion commitments are likely to remain limited until freight fundamentals and balance sheets improve more decisively.

Stabilized Market Growth
The Class 8 market is expected to enter 2027 in a more balanced—but not overheated—position. OEMs have already executed significant production cuts in response to weak freight fundamentals and prolonged pressure on carrier profitability, accelerating capacity contraction ahead of the next cycle. While late-2025 order activity rebounded sharply, ACT Research views that surge as a catch-up event rather than confirmation of a sustained uptrend.

Manufacturers continue to prioritize disciplined scheduling, inventory control, and margin protection over incremental volume. With 2026 expected to deliver only gradual improvement, the 2027 cycle is increasingly shaping up as one defined by replacement demand, selective prebuying, and controlled growth rather than a classic boom cycle. This implies restrained builds, managed backlog pacing, and continued emphasis on operational discipline across the supply chain.

Fleets remain focused on maximizing returns through extended trade cycles, cost efficiency, and selective technology adoption tied to compliance and fuel efficiency rather than capacity expansion. Absent a sharper inflection in freight demand or meaningful policy relief, fleet investment behavior is expected to remain cautious into mid-2027.

Economic Factors
Economic conditions remain a central constraint shaping the 2027 Class 8 outlook. Freight-generating sectors—including housing, manufacturing, and energy—remain uneven, while the unwind from pre-tariff inventory building continues to weigh on goods movement. Consumer spending remains resilient in aggregate but increasingly concentrated among higher-income households, limiting the breadth of freight recovery.

Carrier profitability remains under pressure entering 2026, though accelerating capacity contraction is improving the medium-term setup. Public truckload carriers continue to report depressed margins, reflecting elevated operating costs and limited pricing power. Financing conditions remain restrictive, particularly for smaller fleets facing higher borrowing costs and tighter underwriting standards.

Infrastructure, utility, and data-center-related activity continue to provide targeted support for vocational demand, but long-haul freight markets remain cautious. With inventories still correcting and freight demand expected to stabilize only gradually through 2026, most fleets are likely to enter 2027 with restrained capital budgets focused on compliance, maintenance, equipment life extension, and liquidity preservation.

With regulatory cost pressures locked in and freight recovery expected to be uneven, the 2027 Class 8 outlook remains defined by discipline, efficiency, and risk management—setting the stage for a more durable cycle, but not an aggressive expansion phase.