Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2027

Class 8 Truck Market: 2027 Outlook – August 2025

Regulatory Pressures

The EPA’s Clean Truck and GHG-3 regulations remain the central wildcard shaping the 2027 Class 8 outlook. While EPA 2027 compliance dates technically remain in place, the regulatory environment has shifted dramatically in recent months. Legal uncertainty and mounting political pressure have put the low-NOx mandate on shaky ground, and fleets are increasingly viewing a repeal or significant delay as more likely than enforcement. This has effectively frozen any large-scale prebuy strategy, as 2027 planning now hinges on outcomes outside fleet control. Meanwhile, tariffs—especially on steel, aluminum, and critical components—have become a baked-in cost burden, adding 2–4% to unit prices and discouraging aggressive equipment replacement strategies. Unless regulatory clarity improves, most fleets are likely to delay 2027 capital commitments until later in the cycle.

Stabilized Market Growth

By the time 2027 begins, the Class 8 market is expected to be well into a period of slow, methodical stabilization. OEMs have already scaled back 2025 build schedules—down 25% in Q3 alone—and order activity continues to reflect replacement-level demand. As of July, Class 8 backlogs have fallen to their lowest point since 2016, and production discipline remains a priority. Assuming no last-minute regulatory trigger in 2026, the 2027 market is positioned to remain steady but unspectacular. Fleets are expected to pursue leaner equipment strategies—focused on total cost of ownership, utilization, and selective upgrades—rather than fleet expansions. OEMs will likely continue managing capacity conservatively, prioritizing backlog alignment and margin protection over chasing volume.

Economic Factors

Heading into 2027, economic headwinds remain front and center. Freight-generating industries like construction, housing, and manufacturing are underperforming expectations, and recent ACT data shows private domestic investment slowing to its weakest pace in over two years. Elevated costs, especially on the equipment side, are compressing carrier margins further, with the for-hire TL segment now reporting 12 consecutive quarters of y/y net income margin declines. Access to capital remains challenging, particularly for smaller fleets, and operating cost pressures from tariffs and compliance planning are not expected to abate soon. While vocational demand should remain relatively durable thanks to infrastructure tailwinds, the long-haul and general freight segments will likely remain cautious. Most fleets are heading into 2027 with conservative budgets, focused on equipment aging, ROI-based decision making, and flexibility in the face of still-uncertain regulatory and rate environments.