Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2027

Class 8 Truck Market: 2027 Outlook

September 2025

Updated September 17, 2025

Regulatory Pressures

The EPA’s Clean Truck and GHG-3 rules remain the central wildcard shaping the 2027 Class 8 outlook. While the 2027 compliance date technically remains on the books, escalating legal challenges and mounting political opposition have made enforcement increasingly doubtful. Fleets are now broadly assuming a delay or repeal of the low-NOx mandate, effectively freezing any large-scale prebuy activity. Instead, most carriers are deferring decisions until clarity emerges, keeping 2027 planning conservative and replacement-focused. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported trucks remain embedded in the cost structure, adding an estimated 2–4% to per-unit pricing and discouraging aggressive renewal strategies. Without regulatory certainty, fleets are unlikely to commit significant capital until much later in the cycle.

Stabilized Market Growth
By the time 2027 arrives, the Class 8 market is expected to remain in a slow, steady stabilization phase. OEMs cut Q3 2025 build schedules by 25% versus Q2 and continue to manage output to align with replacement-level demand. Net orders in August totaled just 13,200 units, keeping backlogs at their lowest since 2016. Production discipline is now entrenched, with OEMs prioritizing backlog alignment and margin stability over chasing volume. Unless a regulatory trigger emerges in 2026, the 2027 market is likely to remain steady but subdued. Fleets are expected to maintain lean equipment strategies, emphasizing lifecycle value, utilization, and selective upgrades rather than expansion.

Economic Factors
Macroeconomic headwinds remain the dominant challenge as 2027 approaches. Freight-generating sectors such as housing, manufacturing, and energy continue to underperform, while consumer spending momentum has cooled. Private domestic investment slowed to its weakest rate in more than two years in Q2, underscoring the drag from tariff-related inflation and policy uncertainty. Public TL fleets have now reported three straight years of net income margin declines, reflecting thin pricing power against elevated costs. Credit access remains strained, especially for small and mid-sized carriers. While vocational demand tied to infrastructure and utilities provides some stability, long-haul and general freight markets remain cautious. Most fleets are expected to enter 2027 with conservative budgets, focusing on asset life extension, ROI-driven purchases, and flexibility in navigating unsettled regulatory and rate environments.