Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2026

Class 8 Truck Market: 2026 Outlook

September 2025

Updated September 17, 2025

Regulatory Pressures
The EPA’s Clean Truck and GHG-3 regulations remain a central uncertainty for fleet planning, and visibility into 2026 continues to erode. While the EPA’s 2027 low-NOx mandate is technically still in place, escalating legal challenges and mounting political pushback have made implementation increasingly doubtful. Many fleets now expect a delay or outright repeal, leaving prebuy activity stalled. At the same time, §232 tariff risks on imported trucks and parts are hanging over the market, compounding the already entrenched 2–4% tariff-driven price increases on steel, aluminum, and copper inputs. These cost dynamics are reshaping capital allocation decisions, making it harder for fleets to justify large-scale purchases as 2026 approaches.

Stabilized Market Growth
Class 8 production has stabilized at lower levels as OEMs continue to trim output. Build plans for Q3 2025 are down 25% from Q2, reflecting weak order intake and cautious demand expectations. Order boards for 2026 have begun to open, but early signals show little urgency among fleets. In August, net orders totaled just 13,200 units, leaving backlogs at their lowest point since 2016. The backlog-to-build ratio reflects a market running well below growth conditions. OEMs remain focused on production discipline and aligning output with firm demand, reducing the risk of overbuild. Any 2026 recovery now looks gradual and tied primarily to deferred replacement needs rather than fleet expansion.

Economic Factors
Macroeconomic headwinds remain a key drag on fleet strategies heading into 2026. Freight-producing sectors—including housing, energy, and manufacturing—have softened further, while consumer-driven retail volumes show little sign of rebound. Tariff-related inflation is still pressuring costs, and elevated interest rates are restricting credit access, particularly for small and mid-sized carriers. Public TL fleets have now posted three consecutive years of margin compression, highlighting the depth of profitability challenges. While vocational demand tied to infrastructure and municipal spending remains comparatively resilient, long-haul and regional tractor demand is weak. Capital spending plans remain conservative, with fleets prioritizing cost control, selective replacements, and financial flexibility as they navigate an uncertain regulatory and economic environment.