Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2026

2026 Class 8 Truck Market

December 2025
Updated December 22, 2025

Infrastructure and Construction Support

Vocational Class 8 demand remained soft into November, with weakness persisting across construction, energy, and other cyclical end markets. Infrastructure- and utility-related activity continues to provide a modest baseline of demand, but execution has been uneven as public project timelines slip and elevated labor and material costs constrain momentum.

OEMs report that vocational inventories remain elevated and are correcting more slowly than tractor inventories. Vocational units continue to represent an outsized share of total Class 8 stock relative to historical norms. In response, manufacturers have extended production restraint deeper into Q4 and into early 2026 to work down excess inventory. Despite long-term infrastructure funding support, near-term vocational demand remains subdued.

Production and Backlogs

Class 8 production remained constrained through November as OEMs aligned output with sharply weaker order activity and ongoing margin pressure. November orders underperformed seasonal norms by a wide margin, reinforcing OEM discipline and cautious forward planning.

Backlogs stabilized modestly, driven primarily by reduced build rates rather than improving demand. The backlog-to-build (BL/BU) ratio remains compressed on a seasonally adjusted basis, reflecting limited forward visibility despite extended lead times in select configurations. Retail sales continue to run below replacement levels, accelerating contraction in the active tractor population, while inventories trend lower overall with tractors correcting faster than vocational equipment.

Regulatory Shifts

EPA 2027 remains the most significant regulatory variable shaping the 2026 outlook. While late-2025 communications indicate the EPA intends to maintain core emissions technology requirements while removing or revising warranty and useful-life extensions, higher equipment prices in 2027 now appear inevitable. This evolving clarity has reduced some uncertainty but continues to suppress prebuy activity, limiting orders primarily to essential replacement.

At the same time, §232 tariffs on heavy vehicles and major components are now fully embedded in OEM pricing. These tariffs have materially increased acquisition costs, adding thousands of dollars per unit before financing, insurance, and compliance expenses. Combined with elevated borrowing costs and weak carrier profitability, tariff-driven inflation remains a major constraint on fleet capital planning heading into 2026.

Capacity Rebalancing

The Class 8 sector continues its slow march toward balance, supported by sustained production cuts and accelerating contraction in available capacity. Tractor inventories are approaching healthier levels as OEM discipline persists, but vocational inventories remain elevated and account for a disproportionate share of Class 8 stock.

In the used market, sales activity has softened alongside freight demand, and prices continued to drift lower through late 2025. Newer equipment is holding value better than older units, but overall secondary-market pricing remains under pressure. While equipment retirements are increasing, capacity still exceeds current freight demand, keeping new Class 8 purchases anchored to replacement needs.

Moderate Growth in Orders

Class 8 order activity remained muted through November. Total orders were sharply lower year-over-year during what is typically one of the strongest ordering periods, reflecting weak freight fundamentals, recession-level carrier margins, and elevated equipment costs. Tractor orders showed little improvement, while vocational bookings remained constrained by slow construction activity and high input costs.

Cancellations remained relatively contained, suggesting fleets are largely maintaining existing commitments rather than retrenching. OEMs continue to manage production deliberately, prioritizing margin protection and backlog alignment as they open additional 2026 build slots.

Economic Tailwinds and Risks

Infrastructure spending remains a longer-term tailwind, but near-term economic pressures continue to dominate the outlook. Tariff-driven cost inflation, policy uncertainty, and high financing costs have created one of the most challenging operating environments for carriers in decades. Freight-intensive sectors—including housing, manufacturing, and energy—remain soft, while consumer-related shipments continue to reflect post–pre-tariff payback effects.

Smaller carriers remain particularly vulnerable amid tight credit conditions, rising operating costs, and limited pricing power. As fleets move into 2026, priorities remain centered on cost containment, equipment life extension, and liquidity preservation. A more durable recovery in Class 8 demand will depend on sustained freight stabilization and clearer policy conditions as 2026 unfolds.