Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2026

Class 8 Truck Market: 2026 Outlook – July 2025

Regulatory Pressures

The EPA’s Clean Truck and GHG-3 regulations remain a critical consideration in long-term fleet strategy, but the regulatory environment continues to grow more uncertain. Official timelines for EPA 2027 compliance remain unchanged, but legal delays and political friction have stalled any momentum toward widespread prebuying. Fleets remain hesitant to commit capital without clearer guidance on cost structures, technology requirements, and enforcement expectations. Meanwhile, the impact of newly expanded tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported components is intensifying. As of June, tariffs are estimated to have added 2–4% to highway tractor prices, with further increases likely based on recent trade policy shifts. This is pushing average Class 8 pricing higher heading into 2026, complicating prebuy economics and making large-scale fleet renewals more difficult to justify in the current environment.

Stabilized Market Growth

The outlook for Class 8 market growth in 2026 has been further revised downward as order activity remains under pressure. After weak bookings in Q1 and continued softness into Q2, OEMs are pacing production conservatively, aligning output with lower demand expectations. Hopes for a robust prebuy cycle have largely dissipated, replaced by replacement-only strategies focused on lifecycle planning. Production is expected to decline modestly through late 2025, resulting in a flatter output profile entering 2026. While some deferred demand may begin to return by mid-2026, any rebound is expected to be measured and incremental, not a surge. OEMs remain focused on backlog stability and cost control, prioritizing schedule discipline over volume expansion.

Economic Factors

Heading into 2026, economic conditions remain difficult, particularly for smaller carriers and capital-constrained fleets. Tariff-linked inflation continues to increase both equipment and operating costs, while freight demand remains weak across most over-the-road and regional sectors. High interest rates are further limiting credit availability, leading to continued market exits and deferred spending. While vocational demand is relatively more stable—thanks to ongoing infrastructure work and steady municipal procurement—long-haul and general freight segments are facing tighter margins and lower visibility. Most fleets are prioritizing equipment utilization and maintenance, with 2026 capex plans reflecting caution and a shift away from fleet expansion. Class 8 demand next year is expected to remain modest and heavily replacement-driven, with cost management and regulatory delay, rather than compliance acceleration, acting as the primary market drivers.