Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2026

Class 8 Truck Market: 2026 Outlook – May 2025

Regulatory Pressures

The EPA’s Clean Truck and GHG-3 regulations remain central to long-term fleet planning, but the regulatory environment has become increasingly unpredictable. While official compliance timelines are unchanged, the administration’s recent policy reviews and political uncertainty have delayed meaningful prebuy momentum. Fleets continue to hesitate on major capital decisions, citing a lack of clarity on both cost implications and enforcement expectations. At the same time, newly expanded tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported components are driving up Class 8 tractor costs. Average equipment pricing is expected to rise further into 2026, complicating prebuy strategies and reducing the feasibility of large-scale fleet renewals.

Stabilized Market Growth

The outlook for Class 8 market growth in 2026 has been revised downward as order activity continues to slow. After a sharp drop in Q1 2025 bookings, OEMs are aligning build rates with softer demand expectations. Early-year hopes for a strong prebuy cycle have faded, replaced by more measured planning centered on true replacement needs. Production is expected to decline through the second half of 2025, resulting in a flatter output profile entering 2026. While a modest rebound is likely, driven by deferred purchases and aging fleet profiles, growth will be incremental. OEMs are focusing on backlog stability and disciplined scheduling rather than volume expansion.

Economic Factors

Economic conditions heading into 2026 remain challenging. Inflation linked to tariffs continues to raise equipment and operational costs, while freight demand remains soft across most sectors. High interest rates are limiting credit access, especially for smaller carriers, many of whom are scaling back or exiting the market. Although vocational demand remains relatively steady, especially where infrastructure spending persists, regional and long-haul segments face tighter margins and more cautious spending behavior. Fleets are prioritizing utilization and maintenance over fleet expansion, and capital expenditure plans for 2026 reflect a more selective and risk-averse posture. Class 8 demand next year is expected to be modest and replacement-driven, shaped more by cost discipline than compliance acceleration.