Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2026

2026 Class 8 Truck Market

October 2025

Updated October 23, 2025

Infrastructure and Construction Support

Vocational Class 8 demand softened modestly in September but remains supported by infrastructure programs and municipal replacement cycles. Vocational net orders were down y/y, with weakness most pronounced in construction and energy-related segments. Public infrastructure and utility-related spending continue to provide a limited but stable base, while housing and private construction remain subdued.

OEMs continue to report elevated vocational inventories, reflecting the lingering effects of early-year overproduction. To correct imbalances, manufacturers have further reduced daily build rates heading into Q4. Freight linked to the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) remains a partial offset, but project delays and higher material costs continue to cap demand.

Production and Backlogs

Class 8 production contracted again in September as OEMs continued adjusting output to align with soft order intake. Net orders totaled 20,562 units, the weakest September since 2019. Tractor demand represented roughly two-thirds of total orders, while vocational activity eased further.

Backlogs rose slightly, up from August on reduced production. The backlog-to-build (BL/BU) ratio climbed to 6.3 months, while retail deliveries trailed historical norms. Inventories declined to 78,900 units, with most OEMs continuing to emphasize cost discipline and backlog alignment over volume.

Regulatory Shifts

Regulatory and trade policy remain major constraints on fleet investment. The EPA 2027 low-NOx rule remains under legal review, and most fleets now expect implementation to be delayed beyond 2030. That uncertainty has eliminated any broad-based prebuy activity, leaving new orders focused almost entirely on replacement.

The 232 tariffs on imported trucks and key components are now fully reflected in market pricing. ACT estimates equipment costs are up 3–5% y/y due to tariff effects, with the heaviest impact on vehicles assembled in Mexico. Combined with higher financing and insurance costs, these pressures are weighing heavily on fleet capital budgets and keeping sentiment cautious.

Capacity Rebalancing

The Class 8 market continues its slow correction toward balance. OEMs have reduced production roughly one-quarter from Q2 levels, helping to ease excess inventories. Tractor inventories are nearing equilibrium, but vocational stock remains elevated, accounting for a disproportionate share of unsold units.

Used truck markets are showing early stability as resale volumes improve, but average prices remain down nearly 30% y/y, consistent with ACT’s pricing index. Retirements have picked up slightly, signaling gradual normalization in fleet capacity. Nevertheless, total supply continues to exceed freight demand, with most sales remaining replacement-driven.

Moderate Growth in Orders

Order activity remains subdued heading into Q4. Net Class 8 orders of 20.6k units were down y/y, consistent with fleet restraint in both tractor and vocational segments. Tractor demand was unchanged from August, and vocational bookings continued to trail as cost inflation and policy uncertainty weighed on sentiment.

Cancellations remain stable, reflecting firm but limited commitments from large fleets. OEMs are prioritizing profitability and scheduling discipline, keeping build rates conservative as they open 2026 production slots.

Economic Tailwinds and Risks

Infrastructure spending continues to provide limited support for vocational demand, but tariff-related cost inflation, soft industrial activity, and high borrowing costs are restraining overall recovery. Freight-producing sectors—including housing, manufacturing, and energy—remain weak, while public projects are advancing slower than expected.

Smaller carriers face ongoing margin pressure and tighter credit availability, reinforcing the defensive tone across the market. Heading into late 2025, fleets continue to emphasize cost containment, lifecycle optimization, and liquidity management, with expansion deferred until both freight fundamentals and policy visibility improve.