According to the latest State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks by ACT Research, the used Class 8 average retail sale price fell 1% m/m and 25% y/y to $62,900 in October.
“The past three months’ less-than-expected declines present mounting evidence of pricing stability. We expect lower prices through the end of 2023, with a return to m/m growth toward the end of 2024,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research.
The industry is currently questioning when values will stabilize. Tam explained, “The answer to that question seems to be in flux. There are still too many trucks chasing too little freight. Until the economy can strike a balance between those two factors, downward pressure on pricing will continue to exist. Once the excess capacity is absorbed, the freight rate environment and trucker profits will correct, restarting the cycle that is the commercial vehicle industry.”
ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Based on preliminary Class 8 same dealer used truck retail sales volumes (+10% m/m), it appears as though buyers are eager to take advantage of lower prices. Though, in total, the used truck industry contracted in October, according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.
Compared to September 2023, average retail price and age were flat, with miles up 1%. Compared to October 2022, volumes increased 27%, but price, mile, and age saw declines.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “The gain in retail volumes stood in stark contrast to the other channels. Auctions were 62% lower m/m, while wholesale transactions fell 15% m/m.” He continued, “In total, the used truck industry contracted, with preliminary same dealer sales dropping 38% m/m.”
Tam concluded, “Historically, October is the best sales month of the year, averaging 9% above normal and 3.4% higher than September. However, shifting auction volumes are rapidly impacting overall seasonality.”
Compared to September 2023:
- Average retail volumes increased 1%.
- Retail price declined 1%.
- Miles was flat.
- And age increased 1%.
Compared to October 2022:
- Average retail volumes increased 13%.
- Price declined 25%.
- Miles declined 7%.
- And age declined 4%.
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