Although the growth rate of preliminary Class 8 same dealer sales volumes slowed in March, it showed no signs of letting up (+3.7%), according to the latest preliminary release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks published by ACT Research.
According to Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research, “The gain in retail sales volumes was not as robust as history suggested but came on the heels of stronger-than-expected growth. In typical fashion, auction volumes increased 50% m/m, and wholesale transactions swelled 13% from February.”
Tam concluded, “March retail sales normally surpass the average month by around 9%, thanks to a 13-percentage point increase from February. Second quarter sales tend to be pretty average, with June as the epitome of average.”
State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks Report Overview
ACT’s Classes 3-8 Used Truck report provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo). This report is utilized by those throughout the industry, including commercial vehicle dealers to gain a better understanding of the used truck market, especially as it relates to changes in near-term performance.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
According to the latest State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks by ACT Research, the used Class 8 average retail sale price improved 4.4% m/m to $62,100 in February.
“On a year-over-year basis, used retail prices were 14% lower,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “Until recently, our pricing expectations were for a return to month-over-month growth toward the end of 2024 as the most likely course. Despite February’s encouraging results, recent developments are putting pressure on the forecast. Specifically, we are pushing expectations for the return to sustained month-over-month growth further out.”
Regarding volumes, Tam explained, “Combined, the total market same dealer sales volume fell 43% m/m in February. Compared to February 2023, the retail market accelerated 29%. The auction segment rose 89% y/y, while wholesale volumes increased 143% y/y.” He added, “Combined market results saw volumes increase 57% y/y. Expectations for 2024 call for moderate growth relative to 2023.”
Compared to January 2024:
- Average retail volumes increased 19%.
- Retail price increased 4%.
- Miles increased 1%.
- And age increased 1%.
Compared to February 2023:
- Average retail volumes increased 29%.
- Price declined 14%.
- Miles declined 8%.
- And age declined 1%.
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