Trucking Industry 2028 Outlook

August 2026

Updated August 28, 2026

Trucking Industry Forecast 2028: An Early Planning Outlook

The Trucking Industry Forecast 2028 will be shaped by how the freight-rate, capacity, equipment, and regulatory changes developing in 2026 and 2027 affect industry conditions over the next two years.

ACT’s current forecasts provide an early directional view of 2028, although the outlook remains sensitive to the timing of the driver and equipment supply response, freight-demand growth, equipment costs, and regulatory implementation. The central question is whether the capacity constraints supporting rates through 2026 and 2027 persist—or whether improving carrier economics eventually produce enough capacity to change the cycle.

ACT’s August 2026 reporting shows a freight market tightening primarily because of constrained capacity rather than a broad demand surge. Driver availability has begun to stabilize, but for-hire equipment capacity remains tight, regulatory enforcement continues to restrict supply, and higher spot rates are moving quickly into contract pricing. How the industry responds will influence carrier profitability, transportation budgets, equipment replacement, and production requirements heading toward 2028.

Freight and Capacity

The freight outlook for 2028 will depend on whether the current supply-driven rate upturn develops into a more balanced expansion supported by improving demand—or whether rising driver and equipment supply begins to push the market toward excess capacity.

ACT expects regulatory enforcement, higher equipment costs, and the extended EPA transition to support the rate cycle into 2028. At the same time, higher driver pay, improving carrier profitability, and rising tractor sales should gradually increase available capacity. ACT currently expects that capacity additions could begin changing the direction of the freight-rate cycle during 2028.

Higher rates may strengthen carrier finances and support equipment investment. However, insurance, labor, maintenance, fuel, financing, regulatory compliance, and equipment costs could continue to limit margin improvement and slow the capacity response. If freight demand remains soft, the industry may move from constrained supply toward oversupply more quickly once additional trucks and drivers enter the market.

Shippers and brokers should monitor whether tighter capacity remains a feature of the market through the first part of 2028 and when the balance begins to change. Transportation planning may require stronger routing-guide coverage, greater carrier redundancy, earlier procurement decisions, and continued consideration of intermodal and LTL alternatives while truckload capacity remains constrained.

The most important freight indicators for the developing 2028 outlook include:

• Freight-demand growth
• Driver and carrier availability
• Spot and contract rate trends
• Class 8 tractor sales and fleet growth
• Private-fleet and for-hire capacity
• Carrier profitability and reinvestment
• Equipment utilization
• Modal shifts between truckload, LTL, and intermodal

Equipment Markets

Commercial vehicle demand in 2028 will be influenced by the equipment purchased ahead of and during the 2027 regulatory transition, the amount of replacement demand satisfied during that period, and the financial condition of fleets afterward.

ACT’s August Commercial Vehicle Outlook shifted additional Class 8 production into 2027 and 2028 as improving carrier profitability, pent-up replacement demand, and a more staggered EPA transition supported higher near-term expectations. Some of those additional purchases are expected to reduce demand later in the forecast period, making the timing and composition of 2028 production especially important.

Class 8 demand should continue to receive support from replacement needs and improving freight economics. However, 2028 purchasing activity will be affected by how much demand is pulled forward into 2026 and 2027, the cost and performance of available equipment, the annual increase in nonconformance penalties, and fleets’ ability to finance additional purchases.

Medium-duty demand will remain dependent on individual applications and end markets, including construction, utilities, delivery, leasing, housing, small-business activity, infrastructure, energy, and data-center investment. Higher production in 2026 is expected to leave the industry carrying more inventory into 2027, potentially pushing a larger inventory correction into 2028.

The trailer outlook for 2028 has become more constructive as aging fleets, replacement requirements, improving carrier profitability, and constrained truckload capacity support demand. Dry van and reefer activity will remain closely connected to truckload conditions and fleet age, while flatbed and vocational equipment will be influenced more heavily by industrial, infrastructure, utility, energy, commodity, and construction activity.

Used-truck values will remain an important signal. Strong exports are reducing domestic tractor supply, while higher new-equipment costs could support used demand. However, values will also depend on the amount of new capacity added, equipment condition, financing availability, and whether the freight cycle begins to turn during 2028.

Across the equipment markets, the most useful indicators will include:

• Replacement demand versus fleet expansion
• Order and backlog quality
• Production and delivery schedules
• Equipment pricing and financing availability
• Used-truck values and exports
• Fleet age, maintenance costs, and utilization
• Medium-duty inventory levels
• Trailer replacement and order conversion
• The amount of demand accelerated ahead of and during 2027

Regulatory and Cost Effects

By 2028, the focus will have shifted from preparing for EPA 2027 to evaluating its market effects. Fleets will be assessing equipment acquisition costs, operating performance, maintenance requirements, reliability, and total cost of ownership across compliant and noncompliant engine strategies.

Under the current EPA proposal, nonconformance penalties become more expensive beginning in 2028 through an annual escalator and provisions designed to discourage manufacturers from relying on penalties indefinitely. That structure could make the 2028 equipment market materially different from 2027, when initial penalties may be less costly than immediate regulatory compliance.

Manufacturers, suppliers, dealers, leasing companies, and lenders will need to evaluate how the regulatory transition affected production, purchasing patterns, engine availability, residual values, inventories, and replacement schedules. A staggered transition could reduce the severity of a traditional prebuy and payback cycle, but it could also create greater variation among manufacturers and fleet purchasing strategies.

Compliance enforcement and driver-qualification requirements may also continue influencing available freight capacity. If these measures keep marginal capacity from returning to the market, freight rates could remain firmer for longer. If higher driver pay and stronger fleet economics attract enough qualified capacity, the market could begin moving toward oversupply during 2028.

Cost inflation remains central to both outcomes. Higher equipment, insurance, financing, labor, maintenance, fuel, tariff, and compliance costs may slow capacity additions, but they can also raise the revenue fleets require to justify replacement and expansion.

Early Outlook for 2028

The early Trucking Industry Forecast 2028 points to a potential transition year shaped by the consequences of the current capacity tightening, the equipment purchased during 2026 and 2027, and the evolving EPA transition.

The central planning questions are:

• Will freight demand strengthen enough to support the rate environment?
• When will higher driver pay and equipment production restore capacity?
• How much transportation capacity will return as carrier economics improve?
• Will higher revenue translate into sustainable carrier profitability?
• How much equipment demand will be pulled forward into 2026 and 2027?
• How will escalating nonconformance penalties affect 2028 purchases?
• Will medium-duty inventories require a deeper correction?
• Will aging trailer fleets sustain replacement demand?
• How will new-equipment costs affect 2028 replacement activity?
• What will used-equipment values and exports indicate about capacity and residual risk?
• When will the rate cycle shift from constrained supply toward a more balanced or oversupplied market?

A clearer 2028 outlook will emerge as freight demand, driver availability, regulatory implementation, equipment purchasing, production, fleet profitability, and the capacity response develop. Current ACT forecasts suggest that tight conditions could extend into 2028, but that rising equipment and driver supply may begin changing the cycle as the year progresses.

ACT Research helps transportation and commercial vehicle decision-makers evaluate these connected signals through Freight Intelligence, Commercial Vehicle Intelligence, and Equipment Market Intelligence. Connecting freight demand, rates, capacity, equipment production, replacement timing, and used values provides a stronger basis for planning than relying on any single indicator.