Trucking Industry 2028 Outlook

July 2026

Updated July 31, 2026

Trucking Industry Forecast 2028: An Early Planning Outlook

The Trucking Industry Forecast 2028 will be shaped by how the freight-rate, capacity, equipment, and regulatory changes developing in 2026 and 2027 affect industry conditions over the next two years.

Current evidence does not yet support a detailed 2028 forecast. However, several market forces are already creating important planning questions for fleets, carriers, shippers, brokers, equipment manufacturers, dealers, leasing companies, lenders, and investors.

ACT’s July 2026 reporting shows a freight market tightening primarily because of constrained capacity rather than a broad demand surge. Driver availability is limited, for-hire capacity is contracting, and higher spot rates are moving into contract pricing. How long those conditions persist will influence carrier profitability, transportation budgets, equipment replacement, and production requirements heading toward 2028.

Freight and Capacity

The freight outlook for 2028 will depend on whether the current supply-driven rate upturn develops into a more balanced expansion supported by both improving demand and disciplined capacity growth.

Higher rates may strengthen carrier finances and support equipment investment. However, insurance, labor, maintenance, financing, and equipment costs could continue to limit margin improvement and the industry’s ability to add capacity.

Shippers and brokers should monitor whether tighter capacity becomes a longer-term feature of the market. If it does, transportation planning may require stronger routing-guide coverage, greater carrier redundancy, earlier procurement decisions, and more consideration of intermodal and other modal alternatives.

The most important freight indicators for the developing 2028 outlook include:

• Freight-demand growth
• Driver and carrier availability
• Spot and contract rate trends
• Private-fleet and for-hire capacity
• Carrier profitability
• Equipment utilization
• Modal shifts between truckload, LTL, and intermodal

Equipment Markets

Commercial vehicle demand in 2028 will be influenced by the equipment purchased ahead of and during the 2027 regulatory transition, the amount of replacement demand satisfied during that period, and the financial condition of fleets afterward.

Class 8 demand may receive support from deferred replacement needs and improving freight economics. However, 2028 purchasing activity could be affected by how much demand is pulled forward into 2026 and 2027, the cost and performance of new equipment, and fleets’ ability to finance additional purchases.

Medium-duty demand will remain more dependent on individual applications and end markets, including construction, utilities, delivery, leasing, housing, small-business activity, and infrastructure investment.

Trailer demand will depend on whether stronger freight conditions produce sustained replacement commitments. Dry van and reefer activity will remain closely connected to truckload conditions, while flatbed and vocational equipment will be influenced more heavily by industrial, infrastructure, utility, energy, and construction activity.

Across the equipment markets, the most useful indicators will include:

• Replacement demand versus fleet expansion
• Order and backlog quality
• Production and delivery schedules
• Equipment pricing and financing availability
• Used-truck values
• Fleet age, maintenance costs, and utilization
• The amount of demand accelerated ahead of 2027

Regulatory and Cost Effects

By 2028, the focus will have shifted from preparing for EPA 2027 to evaluating its market effects. Fleets will be assessing equipment acquisition costs, operating performance, maintenance requirements, reliability, and total cost of ownership.

Manufacturers, suppliers, dealers, leasing companies, and lenders will need to evaluate how the regulatory transition affected production, purchasing patterns, residual values, and replacement schedules.

Compliance enforcement and driver-qualification requirements may also continue influencing available freight capacity. If these measures keep marginal capacity from returning to the market, freight rates could remain firmer even without unusually strong demand.

Early Outlook for 2028

The early Trucking Industry Forecast 2028 points to a market that will be shaped by the consequences of the current capacity tightening and the 2027 equipment transition.

The central planning questions are:

• Will freight demand strengthen enough to support the rate environment?
• How much transportation capacity will return as carrier economics improve?
• Will higher revenue translate into sustainable carrier profitability?
• How much equipment demand will be pulled forward into 2026 and 2027?
• How will new-equipment costs affect 2028 replacement activity?
• What will used-equipment values indicate about trade cycles and residual risk?

A more detailed 2028 forecast will become possible as freight demand, regulatory implementation, equipment purchasing, production, and fleet profitability develop.

ACT Research helps transportation and commercial vehicle decision-makers evaluate these connected signals through Freight Intelligence, Commercial Vehicle Intelligence, and Equipment Market Intelligence. Connecting freight demand, rates, capacity, equipment production, replacement timing, and used values provides a stronger basis for planning than relying on any single indicator.