Trucking Industry Forecast for 2026

Trucking Industry 2026 Outlook

October 2025

Updated October 23, 2025

The trucking industry heads toward 2026 in a state of cautious stabilization, shaped by capacity correction, tighter build discipline, and selective fleet investment. While tariffs and regulatory uncertainty remain key headwinds, the industry is entering 2026 on a more balanced footing as order volumes normalize, inventories decline, and OEMs calibrate production to sustainable demand.

Class 8 production continues to slow, with output aligned to thinner orderboards and reduced backlogs. Net orders in September were down 44% y/y, and OEMs have signaled lower daily builds into early 2026. Carrier profitability remains constrained by elevated costs and limited rate leverage, keeping capital spending focused on maintenance and targeted replacement.

Medium-duty markets remain subdued. Net orders were down 19% y/y in September, reflecting weakness in construction, services, and municipal demand. Inventories are easing but remain above optimal levels, leaving OEMs cautious on production.

Trailer demand has steadied at low replacement levels. Net orders fell 5% y/y, while backlogs declined 14% y/y, as fleets continue to defer new equipment purchases amid cost inflation and demand softness. Platform trailers show modest strength tied to infrastructure-related freight, while reefers remain supported by food and cold-chain demand.

Though freight volumes are still muted, signs of stabilization are emerging. Class 8 backlogs are rising modestly, inventories are correcting, and rate declines have slowed. For fleets, the 2026 playbook centers on asset discipline, cost control, and strategic flexibility in a still-uncertain policy and demand environment.

3 Key Trends Impacting Trucking & Transportation in 2026

1. Fleet Renewal and Equipment Strategy

Fleets enter 2026 with aging assets and deferred trade cycles following weak Class 8 order activity through 2025. Purchases remain focused on replacement rather than expansion, with many fleets continuing to extend equipment lifecycles. Elevated costs linked to the 232 import tariffs and lingering uncertainty around the EPA 2027 low-NOx rule are keeping capital spending conservative.

Dealer inventories are gradually rebalancing as OEMs match production to slower sales. Used truck values remain under pressure, but depreciation rates are stabilizing as overcapacity diminishes. The overall investment environment favors ROI-driven renewals, emphasizing reliability, uptime, and total cost of ownership over scale expansion.

2. Regulatory Shifts and Zero-Emission Readiness

The regulatory environment remains unsettled heading into 2026. Most fleets now expect a delay or modification of the EPA 2027 standards, which has halted prebuy strategies and deferred broader capital planning.

Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption continues to advance selectively—primarily in urban delivery, drayage, and regional haul applications where infrastructure and incentives exist. Broader deployment remains limited by high upfront costs, uncertain regulatory timelines, and uneven infrastructure development. Fleets are maintaining pilot programs but are holding off on large-scale commitments until federal and state funding mechanisms become clearer.

3. Capacity Rebalancing and Freight Alignment

Freight markets are showing early signs of gradual rebalancing as Class 8 builds slow and smaller carriers exit the market. Capacity discipline is improving, though rates and profitability remain constrained by cost inflation and tepid demand.

Fleets are prioritizing network efficiency, equipment utilization, and liquidity protection rather than expansion. For-hire carriers continue to manage through thin margins, while private fleets leverage scale to preserve service reliability. ACT Research expects the correction between freight supply and demand to progress slowly through 2026, with meaningful recovery not expected until late in the year.