Trucking Industry Forecast for 2026

Trucking Industry 2026 Outlook

December 2025
Updated December 22, 2025

The trucking industry heads into 2026 with cautious stabilization but persistent uncertainty, shaped by soft freight demand, tariff-driven cost inflation, and evolving regulatory clarity. Capacity is tightening at an accelerating pace as Class 8 builds remain depressed and carrier profitability stays near recessionary levels. However, demand softness, seasonal payback from pre-tariff activity, and policy risks continue to restrain fleet investment. OEMs remain disciplined, aligning production closely with thin orderboards as the industry works through the early stages of a multi-year capacity correction.

Class 8 production slowed further through November as OEMs responded to sharply weaker orders, particularly in tractors. While regulatory clarity around EPA 2027 has improved—indicating that technology requirements will remain while warranty extensions are likely removed—higher equipment prices tied to §232 tariffs are now firmly embedded in 2026 pricing. Fleets continue to focus almost exclusively on essential replacement, constrained by weak margins, elevated financing and insurance costs, and limited appetite for expansion.

Medium-duty markets remained soft into late 2025. While November orders improved modestly from earlier lows, overall demand remains well below historical norms due to slowing services growth, cautious consumer behavior, and lingering body-builder constraints. Inventories remain elevated despite production cuts, reinforcing OEM caution as the market heads into early 2026.

Trailer demand remains subdued, with backlogs at historically low levels despite intermittent order activity. OEMs report 2026 orderboards as “subpar,” reflecting excess parked capacity at fleets and minimal urgency to commit capital. Dry vans and reefers continue to lag long-term norms, while flatbeds remain relatively more stable on selective infrastructure and utility demand. Build plans remain conservative as the industry prioritizes inventory discipline.

Despite muted freight volumes, early signs of rebalancing are becoming more visible. The highway Class 8 tractor population is now contracting at an accelerating rate, used truck prices have begun to stabilize after months of decline, and tractor inventories are gradually normalizing. That said, ACT Research expects freight softness to persist into early 2026, with demand recovery unfolding gradually rather than abruptly.

For fleets, the 2026 operating posture remains centered on cost control, risk management, and flexibility amid ongoing macroeconomic and policy uncertainty.

3 Key Trends Impacting Trucking & Transportation in 2026

1. Fleet Renewal and Equipment Strategy

Fleets enter 2026 with aging equipment and extended trade cycles following another year of weak Class 8 ordering. Purchases remain overwhelmingly replacement-driven, with little appetite for growth given low profitability and materially higher acquisition costs. The §232 tariffs continue to inflate new equipment prices, while insurance, compliance, and financing costs remain elevated.

Dealer and OEM inventories are rebalancing unevenly—tractor inventories are approaching healthier levels, while vocational inventories remain elevated. Used truck values have stopped falling as sharply, reflecting production cuts and capacity contraction. Investment decisions are focused on uptime, reliability, and total cost of ownership rather than fleet expansion.

2. Regulatory Shifts and Zero-Emission Readiness

EPA 2027 remains a central regulatory driver, though clarity has improved late in 2025. Indications that the EPA will retain core emissions technology requirements while removing warranty extensions reduce some uncertainty but confirm that higher equipment prices in 2027 are unavoidable. Prebuy risk has re-emerged, though weak balance sheets limit fleets’ ability to act aggressively.

Zero-emission truck adoption continues in targeted applications such as drayage, urban delivery, and utility fleets where incentives and infrastructure exist. Broader adoption remains constrained by high upfront costs, infrastructure gaps, and uncertain policy timelines. Most fleets are maintaining pilot programs while delaying large-scale commitments.

3. Capacity Rebalancing and Freight Alignment

Freight markets are showing clearer—but still early—signs of rebalancing. Class 8 production has been cut meaningfully, and fleet capacity is contracting as poor profitability forces exits and consolidation, particularly among smaller carriers. However, supply still exceeds demand, keeping pricing power limited.

Carriers continue to prioritize network efficiency, asset utilization, and liquidity preservation over growth. Private fleets remain a competitive force, supported by higher driver pay and more stable freight networks. ACT Research expects supply–demand balance to improve gradually through 2026, with a more durable freight and rate recovery increasingly likely in the second half of the year as capacity contraction accumulates and demand stabilizes.