Trucking Industry Forecast for 2026

Trucking Industry 2026 Outlook - April 2025

The trucking industry enters 2026 facing a highly dynamic and policy-driven operating environment. Stabilization remains the goal, but recent shifts in economic expectations, regulatory clarity, and trade policy are clouding visibility. While some recovery in freight and equipment demand is expected, it will be uneven across segments and highly sensitive to cost inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomic conditions. Class 8 production is forecast to rebound modestly after a sharp pullback in 2025, driven by replacement needs and improving carrier profitability. Medium-duty volumes are expected to improve as economic conditions stabilize, though demand will remain below pre-2023 levels. Trailer demand should firm, particularly in refrigerated and specialized vocational applications, though higher input costs and cautious fleet investment strategies will limit upside.

By year-end 2026, the industry is expected to be in a firmer position—but not without risk. Capacity is projected to normalize, and freight activity should stabilize, but persistent uncertainty around tariffs, EPA timelines, and capital spending could slow progress toward full recovery.

3 Key Trends Impacting Trucking & Transportation in 2026

1. Fleet Renewal and Equipment Strategy

Fleets are heading into 2026 with an aging asset base and rising operating costs. Following sharp production cuts in 2025, replacement activity is expected to rebound—particularly among vocational and regional operators. However, recent cost inflation from tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported components is driving up equipment prices, slowing new order activity in some categories. While regulatory mandates continue to influence equipment planning, fewer fleets now expect aggressive prebuying due to uncertainty around the Clean Truck and GHG-3 timelines. Expect selective fleet refreshes focused on cost containment, emissions compliance, and driver retention benefits.

2. Regulatory Shifts and Zero-Emission Readiness

Regulatory clarity remains elusive heading into 2026. While the EPA’s 2027 rules are still technically in place, federal uncertainty and political volatility have disrupted long-term planning. Fleets are cautiously moving forward with electrification pilots—especially in urban and drayage applications—but broad adoption is likely to remain limited. Infrastructure buildouts continue in key regions, but high vehicle costs, operational constraints, and limited incentives are slowing scale. Expect 2026 to serve more as a testing and transition year, with larger deployments pushed into the back half of the decade.

3. Capacity Rebalancing and Freight Alignment

Trucking capacity is expected to more closely match freight demand in 2026 after significant retrenching in 2025. With Class 8 production down sharply and limited growth in private fleets, excess capacity is gradually being absorbed. Spot rates may stabilize, especially if freight volumes firm in the second half. However, continued pressure from private fleet competition and elevated operating costs will force carriers to focus on asset productivity and margin recovery. Broadly, the industry is shifting from a volume-first to a profitability-first mindset, creating the conditions for a more balanced and resilient market environment in 2026.