Trucking Industry Forecast for 2026

Trucking Industry 2026 Outlook - May 2025

The trucking industry approaches 2026 amid continued disruption, yet signs of stabilization are emerging. Policy volatility, trade uncertainty, and lingering inflationary pressures remain major challenges, but capacity discipline, moderating equipment investment, and gradual freight recovery are setting the stage for a more balanced year ahead. Class 8 production is forecast to rebound following deep 2025 cuts, primarily driven by replacement demand and improved carrier profitability. Medium-duty volumes should improve modestly but remain below historic norms, while trailer demand is projected to recover selectively, with strength in refrigerated and vocational segments.

By the end of 2026, the industry is expected to be on firmer ground—though risks tied to tariff policy, emissions regulations, and capital availability remain. Full recovery will depend on sustained alignment between freight volumes and operating capacity, supported by clearer regulatory guidance and improved economic visibility.

3 Key Trends Impacting Trucking & Transportation in 2026

1. Fleet Renewal and Equipment Strategy

Fleets are entering 2026 with deferred replacement needs and aging equipment. Following a significant production downturn in 2025, a moderate rebound in new orders is expected, led by replacement-focused purchases among regional and vocational operators. However, continued tariff-driven inflation in steel, aluminum, and components is pushing up unit costs, slowing the pace of new investment. While regulatory timelines for EPA and GHG standards remain in flux, prebuy enthusiasm has faded. Most fleets are adopting targeted refresh strategies aimed at improving total cost of ownership, emissions readiness, and driver satisfaction—rather than full-scale fleet turnover.

2. Regulatory Shifts and Zero-Emission Readiness

Heading into 2026, regulatory clarity around EPA 2027 rules and zero-emission mandates remains limited. Fleets continue to explore electrification, particularly in local and port applications, but broad adoption is constrained by high vehicle costs, infrastructure gaps, and uncertain incentives. Political developments and EPA “re-evaluations” have further delayed meaningful prebuying or scaling of clean truck investments. As a result, 2026 is expected to function as a bridge year—focused on pilot deployments and infrastructure groundwork—while larger-scale transitions are deferred until regulatory certainty improves and economics become more favorable.

3. Capacity Rebalancing and Freight Alignment

A key shift in 2026 will be a better-aligned balance between capacity and freight. With Class 8 production down nearly 10% in 2025 and weak private fleet growth, excess equipment is gradually being absorbed. Spot rates are expected to stabilize or rise slightly in the second half of the year, assuming freight volumes hold. However, elevated operating costs, weak contract rate growth, and ongoing competition from private fleets will pressure margins. As a result, carriers are prioritizing efficiency, asset utilization, and profitability over raw volume growth—supporting a more disciplined and sustainable freight market dynamic into 2026.