Trucking Industry Forecast for 2026

Trucking Industry 2026 Outlook - July 2025

The trucking industry moves toward 2026 with cautious optimism, as disruptive forces persist but signs of stabilization continue to emerge. While policy uncertainty, tariff volatility, and inflation-driven cost pressures remain key challenges, improved capacity discipline, a more balanced equipment investment cycle, and gradual freight normalization are beginning to reshape the operating landscape.

Class 8 production remains subdued, focused primarily on replacement needs and managing backlogs. Carrier profitability is still under pressure, with operating margins near their lowest levels in over a decade, keeping capital expenditures conservative. Medium-duty volumes remain soft but steady, and trailer demand is holding up best in refrigerated and infrastructure-supported vocational segments.

Although market fundamentals are firming in select sectors, the industry continues to face structural headwinds related to tariffs, emissions compliance, and tight capital availability. The path forward will depend heavily on better alignment between freight demand and fleet supply, reinforced by greater regulatory clarity and economic consistency.

3 Key Trends Impacting Trucking & Transportation in 2026

1. Fleet Renewal and Equipment Strategy

Fleets are entering 2026 with deferred replacement cycles and aging assets, following a sharp pullback in 2025 orders and production. New purchases remain focused on replacement rather than expansion, with tariff-driven inflation—now estimated to have added 2–4% to tractor and trailer costs—acting as a brake on broader fleet investment. With EPA and GHG standard timelines still unresolved, widespread prebuying has not materialized. Instead, fleets are executing targeted refresh strategies, focused on optimizing lifecycle cost, ensuring regulatory readiness, and improving driver experience.

2. Regulatory Shifts and Zero-Emission Readiness

Heading into 2026, clarity around EPA 2027 compliance and zero-emission mandates remains elusive. Fleet electrification efforts continue, but adoption remains limited to specific use cases—such as port drayage and regional delivery—due to high vehicle costs, infrastructure gaps, and unsettled incentives. Recent political and legal developments have further delayed enforcement timelines, making it difficult for fleets to scale clean truck deployments. Most are maintaining a focus on pilot projects, infrastructure preparation, and technology evaluation while awaiting more concrete regulatory and funding signals.

3. Capacity Rebalancing and Freight Alignment

The industry is in the midst of a slow-moving rebalancing between capacity and freight demand. The decline in Class 8 build rates throughout 2025, combined with muted private fleet growth, is helping to absorb excess equipment. Spot market conditions have shown brief seasonal strength, but overall profitability remains under strain due to rising costs, soft contract rates, and ongoing shipper leverage. As a result, operational efficiency, network optimization, and tight asset control are top of mind for fleets, which are favoring measured growth strategies and avoiding overexpansion in an uncertain demand environment.