Net order intake in May was just above 6.6k units, down more than 26% from April but about 12% higher than the subdued level of orders accepted last May, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.
“This puts the year-to-date order tally at 76.6k units, 13% higher than the 68.1k bookings for the first five months of 2024,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Worth noting, the industry’s annual period of seasonally stronger order months is in the rearview mirror, and weaker intake is expected from now through mid-Q3.”
“Cancellations started to escalate in February. Buttressed by some astronomical tank order cancellations, this month’s rate as a percentage of backlog jumped to 4.0%. Additionally, data continue to show elevated dry and reefer van cancellations,” McNealy concluded.
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Report Overview
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Preliminary net trailer orders dropped more than 2,300 units from April to May, a contraction of about 26%. However, at 6,600 units, order intake was nearly 12% higher compared to May 2024. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle raises May’s tally to 9,200 units. Final May results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Lower May net order intake was expected, as it is one of the weakest order months of the annual cycle. More concerning, though, is this level of order acceptance does nothing to support backlog growth, particularly with the elevated cancellation rates reported in the past several months,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research.
She cautioned, “With weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations, relatively full inventories, high interest rates, and the ambiguity of policy shifts still in play, ACT’s expectations for subdued build and order intake levels during 2025 remain intact.”
- Orders: 6.6k, -26% m/m, +12% y/y
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