According to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report, with the majority of 2025 in the rearview mirror, the US trailer market remains in “stay afloat” mode, as fleets continue their wait-and-see strategy.
“With lower build rates insufficient to offset soft orders in September, the industry backlog-to-build ratio fell 30 basis points sequentially, to 3.3 months,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “September’s build rate and the current backlog commit the industry into the start of 2026.”
“Cancelations started to escalate in February and have remained elevated relative to backlog since. September’s rate, as a percentage of backlog, was 5.6%, both overstated and the highest rate since May 2020,” McNealy continued. “Data continued to show high dry van cancelations, with reefers and the tank segments also elevated. Per OEMs, cancelation activity is primarily from dealers, as they work to control stock against a backdrop of uncertainty and cost concerns.”
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Report Overview
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Preliminary net trailer orders in September were 2,300 units higher than August’s 9,100 level, a 25% month-to-month increase. At 11,300 units booked in September, order intake was 5% below last September’s level. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers the monthly tally to about 10,000 units. Final September results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Sequentially, September’s higher net order intake was expected, as the annual cycle begins to move toward stronger order months at the end of Q3 when the industry begins opening next year’s orderboards,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. She added, “September’s tally brings the Q3 net order total to 29,200 units, or 8% more net orders than were accepted in Q3’24. Data show the year-to-date net order total at nearly 121,200 units, about 20% better than the same nine-month order intake of 2024.”
McNealy continued, “Looking forward, concern continues that moderating economic activity, ongoing weak for-hire carrier profitability, and ambiguous governmental policy, especially around the EPA low NOx rule, remain as challenges to stronger trailer demand. However, two potential positives for trailer demand are in sight; pent-up demand is building, and with Section 232 tariffs risking cost increases for power-unit expenditures, fleets may be willing to divert capex to trailing equipment purchases deferred over the past few years. At this point, ACT’s expectations are for an improving but still subdued trailer industry outlook.”
- Backlog-to-build ratio: 3.6 months
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