According to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report, end-of-2025 challenges remained on the horizon as the trailer industry entered 2026.
“Cancellations gyrated wildly throughout 2025, before returning to a more subdued rate to start 2026. February’s rate of 0.5%, as a percentage of backlog, fell well below the target range for the first time in 13 months, following an improved but still-elevated 1.6% reading in January,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Data continued to show elevated cancellations in the tank segments, coming primarily from carriers and attributed to a decline in oil/gas activity. However, if high oil prices continue, tank trailer cancellations are unlikely to continue at elevated levels.”
“After two consecutive months of net orders significantly outpacing build and pumping some lifeblood into the anemic backlogs, the tide receded in February,” McNealy continued. “Backlogs fell 1.5% sequentially, or about 1.1k units. Given the annual order cycle is coming to an end, and it’s now typically the time to build down the backlog, the question remains truckers’ near-term appetite for trailers. Much like 2025, the issue today remains a shallow backlog.”
McNealy concluded, “In addition to weak backlogs, the industry is facing relatively soft demand, financing concerns, tariffs known, the uncertainty of tariffs to come, weak carrier profits and low freight volumes, and low levels of capital spending balanced against high input costs (metals in particular). And those on the front lines are waiting, knowing a ramp in demand is coming but worried about the industry’s ability to meet it if it is too steep and quick.”
State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers Report Overview
ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of the current US trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It is accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present, as well as a ready-to-use graph packet, to allow organizations in the trailer production supply chain, and those following the investment value of trailers, trailer OEMs, and suppliers to better understand the market.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Preliminary net trailer orders in February were down about 10,000 units from January’s 23,300-unit level, a 43% month-to-month decrease. At 13,200 units booked in February, order intake was 26% below February 2025’s level. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers the monthly tally to 12,300 units. Final February trailer industry data will be available later this month. This preliminary order estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.
“Sequentially, a drop in net orders was expected, as the industry transitions from the strongest to the weakest order months of the annual cycle,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Trailer makers now will begin to take fewer orders and start to work down the backlog that grew during the peak of order season at the end of the previous year, which in this year’s cycle started and ended later than usual, as fleet decision-making hesitance into late 2025 delayed the cycle a bit and caused a high-side surprise in January.”
McNealy concluded, “We now question when we will see 20k-plus-unit order intake months again, and how quickly trailer OEMs will build down the still-thin backlog, particularly given concerns about the level of activity in the key freight-generating economic sectors that drive transportation demand.”
- Cancellation Rate as a % of Backlog: 0.5%
- Backlogs: fell 1.5%
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