Class 8 Truck Market: 2027 Outlook

August 2026

Updated August 28, 2026

Class 8 Tractor Sales Forecast 2028: An Early Outlook for Replacement Demand and Fleet Investment

The Class 8 Tractor Sales Forecast 2028 will be shaped by the freight-market cycle, pent-up replacement demand, financing conditions, escalating equipment costs, and the effects of purchases made during the EPA 2027 regulatory transition.

ACT’s current Commercial Vehicle Outlook provides a directional 2028 forecast and raised its 2028 North American Class 8 production expectations in August. The adjustment reflects stronger carrier profitability, replacement requirements, and a more staggered regulatory transition that shifts additional equipment demand into both 2027 and 2028.

ACT’s August 2026 reporting shows Class 8 orders increased 71% year over year in July, with tractor orders rising 103%. Backlogs remained well above historical levels, and retail sales exceeded estimated replacement demand for the second consecutive month.

These signals indicate that the market has moved beyond the weakest point of the prior cycle. Whether stronger tractor demand persists through 2028 will depend on the durability of carrier profitability, the amount of replacement activity completed during 2026 and 2027, the cost of new equipment, and how quickly additional trucks and drivers restore freight capacity.

Replacement Demand After the Regulatory Transition

Replacement demand should remain an important part of the 2028 Class 8 market. Fleets that deferred purchases during the freight downturn must continue weighing the cost of new equipment against the maintenance, downtime, reliability, and fuel-efficiency risks associated with older tractors.

However, 2028 demand will be affected by purchases accelerated during the EPA 2027 transition. ACT raised its production expectations for both 2027 and 2028 while lowering portions of the longer-term outlook, reflecting the movement of some demand into the earlier years.

The proposed regulatory structure may spread purchases across a longer period than a traditional prebuy. Initial nonconformance penalties are lower than the expected cost of immediate compliance, but an annual escalator and provisions targeting continued nonconformance are expected to make that strategy more expensive beginning in 2028.

As a result, fleets may face different equipment choices and cost structures in 2028 than in 2027. Some may accelerate purchases before penalties increase, while others may wait for greater certainty around equipment performance, maintenance requirements, reliability, and total cost of ownership.

Market participants should monitor:

• The amount of demand pulled forward during 2026 and 2027
• Fleet age and remaining replacement requirements
• New-equipment costs and operating performance
• Nonconformance penalties and manufacturer engine strategies
• Maintenance and downtime exposure
• Order cancellations and completed deliveries
• Replacement purchases versus capacity expansion

By 2028, fleets should also have more information about the acquisition cost, reliability, maintenance requirements, and total cost of ownership of equipment produced under the evolving regulatory environment.

Freight Economics and Fleet Capacity

The 2028 tractor outlook will depend heavily on how the current freight-rate upturn affects carrier profitability and how quickly stronger economics produce additional transportation capacity.

The freight market is tightening primarily because capacity has contracted—not because freight demand is surging broadly. Aggregate contract rates increased 17% year over year in July 2026, while aggregate spot rates remained above contract pricing.

Higher rates should continue improving fleet cash flow and supporting replacement activity. However, insurance, labor, maintenance, fuel, financing, regulatory compliance, and equipment costs will continue to absorb part of the revenue benefit and may slow the pace at which fleets can add trucks.

The capacity response is beginning. Tractor sales have moved above estimated replacement requirements, driver availability has started to improve, and ACT expects the tractor fleet to return to growth. Continued equipment purchases and higher driver pay should add more productive capacity through 2027 and 2028.

ACT currently expects the freight cycle to begin changing as capacity additions become more significant during 2028. If supply grows faster than freight demand, the market could move from constrained capacity toward oversupply, weakening rates and reducing the urgency behind expansion-oriented tractor purchases.

If carrier economics strengthen without producing an aggressive return of capacity, Class 8 demand could remain replacement-focused and financially disciplined for longer. A broader expansion cycle would require stronger freight demand, durable margins, higher utilization, and greater confidence in future operating conditions.

Financing and Used-Truck Signals

Financing conditions will help determine which fleets can invest in equipment during 2028. Higher tractor prices and borrowing costs may make purchasing decisions increasingly dependent on fleet balance-sheet strength, expected utilization, trade values, regulatory strategy, and lender confidence.

Used-truck values will also remain an important indicator. July 2026 same-dealer Class 8 retail transactions increased 45% year over year, while average retail prices declined 2%. Strong transaction activity alongside softer pricing shows that equipment turnover can improve without producing uniform value appreciation.

Used Class 8 tractor exports also remain elevated, removing equipment from the domestic fleet and supporting demand for available used tractors. Higher new-equipment costs could provide additional support for used values as buyers seek more affordable alternatives.

Conversely, higher new-truck production during 2027 and 2028 could eventually increase trade activity and add used inventory. If the freight cycle weakens as capacity returns, financially pressured carriers could also release equipment into the secondary market.

Fleets, dealers, lenders, leasing companies, and remarketing teams should evaluate new-truck demand and used-equipment conditions together. Transaction activity, exports, equipment age and mileage, trade cycles, financing availability, and the pace of new-truck deliveries will all influence replacement affordability and residual-value risk.

Early Outlook for 2028

The early Class 8 Tractor Sales Forecast 2028 points to continued replacement and regulatory support, but also a potential transition in the freight and equipment cycles.

ACT raised its 2028 production expectations as improving carrier profitability, deferred replacement needs, and the staggered EPA transition shifted more equipment demand into the year. At the same time, additional tractor production and improving driver availability may begin restoring enough capacity to slow freight rates and change fleet investment incentives.

The central planning questions are:

• How much replacement demand will remain after 2026 and 2027 purchases?
• Will higher freight rates produce sustainable carrier profitability?
• How quickly will fleets and drivers restore productive capacity?
• Will freight demand grow fast enough to absorb additional tractors?
• How will escalating nonconformance penalties affect purchase timing?
• What will new equipment cost to purchase, maintain, and operate?
• Will financing conditions support continued fleet investment?
• How will used-truck values and exports affect trades and replacement economics?
• Will 2028 mark the transition from constrained capacity toward oversupply?

A clearer 2028 outlook will emerge as regulatory implementation, fleet purchasing, freight demand, carrier profitability, equipment performance, and used-truck conditions develop. Current ACT forecasts support stronger Class 8 production expectations, but the balance between replacement demand and the freight-market capacity response will determine how durable that strength becomes.

ACT Research’s Commercial Vehicle Intelligence, Freight Intelligence, and Equipment Market Intelligence help decision-makers connect these signals. Evaluating freight rates, capacity, fleet profitability, replacement demand, equipment production, financing, and used values together provides a stronger foundation for 2028 planning than relying on any single market indicator.