Dry Van Rates

Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector – July 2025

As of June 2025, the dry van truckload (TL) sector continues to navigate a shifting freight environment shaped by moderating pre-tariff effects, soft consumer spending, and persistent fleet discipline. June data from ACT Research’s Freight Forecast reflects a market still searching for stability, with limited pricing traction despite modest seasonal support.

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates increased 4¢ m/m in June to $1.66 per mile, supported by residual pre-tariff shipping and seasonal retail restocking. The seasonally adjusted load-to-truck ratio declined slightly to 4.1, signaling a modest loosening in capacity conditions as Roadcheck effects faded. Despite incremental improvement, freight volumes remain below replacement norms, and cost inflation continues to discourage aggressive fleet positioning.

With seasonal freight expected to crest in mid-Q3, current conditions point to short-term stability in spot rates—but momentum remains fragile. Inventory rebalancing and inflation-sensitive consumer behavior will remain key variables heading into the second half of the year.

Contract Market Rates

Dry van contract rates held flat again in June at $2.15 per mile, extending the sideways trend seen since Q1. The spot-contract rate spread narrowed to 39¢, as spot pricing gained slight ground but contract rates remained largely unchanged. Contract bid cycles continue to reflect a cost containment mindset among shippers, limiting opportunities for upward pricing movement.

While private fleet costs remain elevated, supporting some stability for dependable for-hire partners, broader contract rate gains are being held back by soft freight demand, limited shipment growth, and constrained carrier margins. Most fleets remain focused on utilization and replacement rather than expansion.

Overall, the dry van TL market remains in a transitional holding pattern. Spot rates are seeing temporary support from seasonal and tariff-related dynamics, but structural freight weakness and rising operating costs continue to weigh on contract performance. With Q3 expected to peak early and fade by late summer, the sector is likely to remain in reactive mode, adjusting cautiously to economic and regulatory uncertainty through the end of 2025.

To see how dry van rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.