Dry Van Rates

Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector – May 2025

As of April 2025, the dry van truckload (TL) sector is managing through a shifting freight landscape shaped by post-tariff normalization, seasonal volume trends, and ongoing equipment discipline. Below is an updated overview reflecting the latest data and outlook from ACT Research's Freight Forecast.

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates softened in April following March’s decline, as the pre-tariff inventory boost faded and freight volumes settled into more typical seasonal patterns. The seasonally adjusted load-to-truck ratio remained elevated, averaging just above 5 in April, with regional variation driven by produce season and cross-border volatility. While capacity appears to be tightening modestly, rate momentum is constrained by muted overall demand and high baseline capacity.

With seasonal freight expected to build into late Q2, short-term conditions support steadier spot rates, but sustainability remains in question. The pace at which inventories normalize and the impact of inflation on consumer behavior will be key drivers moving forward.

Contract Market Rates

Dry van contract rates remained flat in April, holding close to February and March levels. The wide spot-contract spread continues to signal a soft demand backdrop, with contract renewals showing only incremental gains. Fleets are still navigating high operating costs and uncertain volume commitments, while shippers remain price-sensitive in the current environment.

Private fleet costs continue to run well above for-hire rates, creating modest upward pressure for contract carriers positioned to offer consistent service. Still, broader contract strength remains elusive as the freight cycle remains in a holding pattern.

Overall, the dry van TL sector reflects a market in gradual adjustment. Spot dynamics are stabilizing but not accelerating, while contract pricing is steady under margin pressure. With Q2 bringing fresh regulatory and economic crosscurrents, the sector remains in a watch-and-react phase as fundamentals slowly evolve.

To see how dry van rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.