Dry Van Rates

Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector

December 2025 Update

As of December 2025, the dry van truckload (TL) sector remains under pressure from soft underlying freight demand, tariff-driven cost inflation, and a still-imbalanced supply environment. While pre-tariff shipping activity has fully unwound, early-winter weather disruptions temporarily tightened capacity in December, producing a short-lived spike in spot rates. ACT Research notes, however, that this improvement is event-driven rather than structural, with broader freight fundamentals still weak.

According to ACT Research’s December Freight Forecast, capacity continues to exceed freight volumes despite accelerating fleet contraction. Regulatory uncertainty has eased modestly following greater clarity on EPA 2027 low-NOx requirements, but higher equipment costs tied to §232 tariffs and weak carrier profitability remain major barriers to new investment. Private fleet capacity, while beginning to reverse, still weighs on for-hire market performance.

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates firmed sharply in early December as severe winter storms disrupted operations across the Midwest during a seasonally tight holiday shipping window. Load rejections increased, routing guides came under stress, and spot pricing rose meaningfully from mid-November levels. ACT cautions that this strength is likely temporary, with rates expected to ease as weather normalizes and post-holiday demand softens.

Outside of weather-related dislocations, retail and consumer-goods freight remains sluggish. Lean inventories, moderating consumer spending, and weaker import flows continue to cap sustained volume recovery. ACT characterizes current conditions as a market where “temporary tightening events mask still-soft fundamentals,” with rate volatility expected to persist into early 2026.

Contract Market Rates

Dry van contract rates remained largely unchanged through December, extending a multi-month pattern of stability. The spot/contract spread widened temporarily following the early-December spot rate surge, but contract negotiations continue to favor shippers amid abundant capacity and muted demand.

Early-2026 bid activity continues to center around modest, low-single-digit adjustments, broadly consistent with ACT’s December forecast. With margins still compressed, carriers remain focused on:

• Equipment lifecycle extension
• Asset productivity improvements
• Maintenance, insurance, and fuel cost control
• Operational efficiency over network expansion

Tariff-driven equipment price inflation and elevated financing costs continue to suppress replacement activity and discourage growth-oriented purchases.

Outlook

The dry van TL market remains in a defensive posture, with December’s spot rate gains driven primarily by winter weather rather than improving demand. While capacity contraction is accelerating beneath the surface, it has yet to translate into sustained pricing power.

Consumer demand continues to cool, inventories remain lean, and freight-generating sectors show limited momentum heading into 2026. Although regulatory clarity around EPA 2027 has improved, tariff-related cost pressures and tight credit conditions continue to reinforce extended trade cycles and conservative fleet behavior.

Absent a durable improvement in freight demand or a material shift in tariff policy, ACT Research expects the dry van segment to remain oversupplied, margin-constrained, and largely replacement-driven well into 2026, with a more durable recovery increasingly tied to ongoing capacity contraction rather than near-term demand growth.