Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector

March 27, 2026 Update

As of March 2026, the dry van truckload (TL) sector is entering the year on firmer footing than previously anticipated, with tightening conditions increasingly driven by structural capacity constraints rather than weather alone. Underlying freight demand remains uneven rather than robust, but accelerating capacity contraction, declining driver availability, and regulatory-driven supply pressures are tightening the market more meaningfully at the margins. Winter storms in January and early February significantly constrained capacity and lifted spot rates sharply, and while those disruptions have largely passed, they exposed a structurally leaner carrier base that continues to support elevated rate conditions.

According to ACT Research’s March Freight Forecast, the capacity overhang that defined much of 2024 and 2025 is narrowing faster than expected. Spot truckload rates, net fuel, are running roughly 20% higher year-over-year into March, while load activity remains elevated relative to available capacity. While seasonal moderation is still expected as weather effects fade and backlogs clear, higher diesel prices are now reinforcing tighter supply and helping sustain elevated rate floors. Contract rates are beginning to accelerate, supported by fuel surcharges and tightening conditions, signaling a shift in pricing dynamics toward carriers. At the same time, higher equipment costs tied to §232 tariffs, elevated financing expenses, and rising operating costs continue to temper expansion appetite, while private fleet contraction is increasingly supporting for-hire demand as 2026 progresses.

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates remained elevated into March following the winter-driven surge, supported by structurally tighter capacity and rising operating costs. Load postings have moderated from peak weather-driven levels but remain significantly higher year-over-year, indicating sustained demand relative to available capacity. Spot pricing continues to reflect roughly 20% year-over-year gains, though higher diesel costs are creating some near-term volatility in net rates.

ACT expects some retracement as networks normalize and seasonal demand softens into the spring. However, with capacity still constrained and fleets hesitant to expand meaningfully, dry van rates are more likely to revert to higher lows rather than return to prior trough levels. Outside of weather impacts, retail and consumer-goods freight remains mixed, with lean inventories and uneven spending continuing to limit rapid volume acceleration. ACT characterizes current conditions as a tightening market where structural capacity contraction and rising cost pressures are reinforcing rate support rather than reacting solely to episodic disruptions.

Contract Market Rates

Dry van contract rates are responding more clearly to sustained spot strength and rising fuel costs. Early bid activity reflects modest increases, with additional upward pressure expected as fuel surcharges and tighter capacity conditions move through contract cycles. While shipper leverage has narrowed, negotiations remain measured rather than aggressive.

Outlook

The dry van TL market is firmer entering March 2026 than at any point during 2025, though still early in a recovery phase. Recent spot rate gains have transitioned from being primarily weather-driven to increasingly supported by structural capacity constraints and rising costs. Pricing power is improving, with early signs of a broader shift toward carriers.

Consumer demand remains uneven, inventories are lean, and freight-generating sectors tied to goods production and housing continue to lag. However, tightening driver supply, private fleet contraction, and limited fleet expansion are reinforcing supply-side constraints more sustainably than previously anticipated.

Absent a sharp deterioration in freight volumes, ACT Research now expects the dry van segment to continue progressing toward balance through 2026. A more durable recovery is increasingly supported by structural capacity tightening, cost-driven supply constraints, and higher rate floors rather than solely by near-term demand acceleration.