Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector

July 2026 Update

July 31, 2026

As of July 2026, dry van rates continue to strengthen as the truckload market moves further into a supply-driven upturn. Freight demand is improving in pockets, but constrained capacity remains the larger market driver. Driver availability is acutely tight, for-hire capacity continues to contract, and regulatory enforcement is making it more difficult to add trucks and drivers. ACT’s July Freight Forecast indicates that these conditions are supporting rising rates even without a broad freight-demand surge.

Dry van spot rates accelerated again in June and remained materially higher year over year. Contract rates also strengthened as elevated spot pricing moved more quickly into bids and contract negotiations. Shipper leverage has narrowed, while carriers are regaining pricing power, even as insurance, labor, financing, equipment, and other operating costs continue to pressure profitability.

Spot Rates

Dry van spot rates, excluding fuel, increased 45% year over year in June. Available capacity became exceptionally tight around the end of June and the July 4 holiday as driver scarcity compounded several years of for-hire capacity contraction.

Some moderation remains possible during the third-quarter seasonal lull. However, the broader rate floor appears higher than during the prior downturn. Limited capacity, regulatory enforcement, and the difficulty of recruiting drivers are making it harder for supply to respond quickly to improving rates.

Contract Rates

Dry van contract rates increased 12% year over year in June, showing that the pricing reset is extending beyond spot-market volatility. Acute capacity tightness is also shortening the normal lag between stronger spot conditions and contract pricing.

For shippers, transportation budgets, bid strategies, and routing guides may require adjustment as the year progresses. For carriers, stronger contract pricing should improve revenue quality, although profitability remains dependent on managing elevated operating costs.

Capacity Conditions

Capacity remains the primary driver of the dry van rate upturn. Driver availability is exceptionally tight, for-hire capacity has contracted, and regulatory enforcement continues to limit available supply. Several years of restrained equipment investment have also reduced the market’s ability to expand quickly in response to higher rates.

Private fleet contraction is shifting additional freight toward the for-hire market. That dynamic, combined with disciplined fleet expansion and stronger spot activity, is reinforcing a tighter dry van environment even without a broad freight-demand surge.

Summary

Entering July 2026, the dry van truckload market is considerably firmer, with pricing strength increasingly tied to structural capacity constraints. Spot rates remain sharply higher year over year, contract rates are accelerating, and market leverage has continued to shift toward carriers.

Demand remains uneven, and some seasonal rate pressure could moderate during the third quarter. Higher driver pay may also help stabilize availability over time. Even so, shippers, carriers, brokers, fleets, and investors should continue monitoring spot-contract spreads, driver availability, regulatory enforcement, bid activity, and whether higher rates translate into healthier carrier profitability and renewed capacity investment.