Dry Van Rates

Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector – June 2025

As of May 2025, the dry van truckload (TL) sector is managing through a shifting freight landscape shaped by pre-tariff pull-forward effects, slower consumer spending, and ongoing equipment discipline. Below is an updated overview reflecting the latest data and outlook from ACT Research's Freight Forecast.

Spot Market Rates

Dry van spot rates rose 5¢ m/m in May to $1.62 per mile, following declines earlier in Q2 as the pre-tariff inventory boost faded. The seasonally adjusted load-to-truck ratio started May at 4.3, roughly in line with the 2024 average, reflecting capacity re-entering the market after Roadcheck. While some seasonal tightening was evident in late Q2, overall demand remains soft, and rising equipment costs are limiting fleet responsiveness.

With seasonal freight expected to peak mid-Q3, short-term conditions support moderate spot rate stability, but sustainability remains in question. The pace at which pre-tariff inventories clear and the inflationary impact on consumer demand will be key drivers moving forward.

Contract Market Rates

Dry van contract rates were flat again in May at $2.15 per mile, marking a 1¢ gain from April and continuing the sideways trend seen since Q1. The spot-contract rate spread widened to 42¢, indicating a persistent imbalance in market leverage. Contract renewals remain modest, with shippers maintaining a cost-sensitive posture amid freight volatility.

Private fleet costs remain elevated, continuing to support slight upward pressure for consistent for-hire carriers, but broader contract strength is limited by soft volumes and underwhelming rate momentum. Operating margins remain thin, and carrier profitability is near 15-year lows, reinforcing caution in pricing strategies.

Overall, the dry van TL sector reflects a market in continued transition. Spot dynamics are stabilizing seasonally but not yet accelerating, while contract pricing remains stuck under margin pressure. With Q3 expected to bring a brief import surge followed by softening demand, the sector remains in a watch-and-react phase as fundamentals evolve against an uncertain economic and regulatory backdrop.

To see how dry van rates change in the future, and for detailed analysis and forecasts for truckload, less-than-truckload, and intermodal, see ACT's freight & transportation forecast.