Dry Van Truckload (TL) Sector

June 2026 Update

June 26, 2026

As of June 2026, dry van rates continue to strengthen as the truckload market moves further into a supply-driven recovery. Freight demand is improving in pockets, but the larger market shift is coming from constrained capacity, lower driver availability, regulatory enforcement, and limited fleet expansion. ACT’s June Freight Forecast notes that the market has entered a period of rising rates and tight capacity, with driver availability falling sharply.

The dry van market is no longer reacting only to Roadcheck or short-term disruption. Spot rates remain materially higher year-over-year, and contract rates are accelerating as tighter capacity works through bid cycles. Shipper leverage has narrowed, while carriers are seeing improved pricing power, even as insurance, labor, financing, equipment, and other operating costs continue to pressure margins.

Spot Rates

Dry van spot rates strengthened again in May, supported by constrained capacity, stronger spot demand, and tighter load-to-truck conditions around Roadcheck. ACT’s June Freight Forecast reported that DAT U.S. dry van truckload spot rates, net fuel, rose sharply year-over-year in May, accelerating from April.

Some seasonal moderation remains possible, but the broader rate floor appears higher than it was during the prior downturn. Fewer available drivers, regulatory pressure, and limited replacement activity are making it harder for capacity to respond quickly to better rates.

Contract Rates

Dry van contract rates are now responding more clearly to sustained spot-market strength. Aggregate DAT contract rates rose again in May and were nearly 10% above year-ago levels, signaling that the pricing reset is moving beyond spot volatility and into broader bid activity.

For shippers, this means bid activity may become less favorable as the year progresses. For carriers, stronger contract pricing should support revenue quality, though profitability remains dependent on managing elevated operating costs.

Capacity Conditions

Capacity remains the primary driver of the dry van rate recovery. Driver availability has tightened, regulatory and enforcement pressure has increased, and below-replacement tractor sales in the prior downcycle limited the pace of fleet expansion. ACT’s June commercial vehicle commentary also points to new supply lows as nondomiciled CDL rules, the new USDOT registration system, fraudulent ELD removals, and driver school closures continue to remove or limit capacity.

Private fleet contraction is also shifting more freight back toward the for-hire market. That dynamic, combined with disciplined fleet expansion and stronger spot demand, is reinforcing a tighter dry van environment even without a broad freight demand surge.

Summary

The dry van TL market is firmer entering June 2026, with pricing strength increasingly tied to structural capacity tightening rather than temporary disruption. Spot rates remain elevated, contract rates are improving, and capacity conditions continue to favor carriers more than they did during the prior downturn.

Demand remains uneven, and cost pressure is still limiting fleet expansion. Even so, the dry van market appears to be moving further into recovery. Shippers, carriers, brokers, fleets, and investors should continue monitoring load-to-truck trends, contract bid activity, driver availability, regulatory enforcement, and whether higher rates translate into healthier carrier profitability.