Class 8 Truck Orders

Class 8 Truck Orders

September 2025 Update

As of August 2025, the Class 8 truck market remains under significant pressure, with order activity still weak and clouded by intensifying macro and policy headwinds. Persistent freight softness, uncertainty over the §232 heavy-duty vehicle tariff investigation, and the looming EPA 2027 NOx rule continue to weigh on fleet investment decisions. Public carriers remain cautious amid thin margins and muted rate environments, keeping capital spending tightly constrained and replacement-focused.

Cancellations remained elevated in August, echoing trends in July and highlighting ongoing fleet reluctance to commit in the face of mounting regulatory and economic risks. OEMs have signaled further Q4 production moderation, reflecting underbooked orderboards and declining backlog coverage.

The vocational segment has now clearly joined the broader downturn. Tank trailer cancellations and weak municipal activity underscore softening demand in construction, energy, and infrastructure sectors. OEM feedback confirms rising inventories across non-tractor configurations, exacerbated by high financing costs and delayed government disbursements.

Class 8 Truck Orders Snapshot

Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for August were 13,200 units, essentially flat from July but down y/y. Seasonally adjusted, orders declined m/m to an annualized pace of 182k units. The modest monthly change masks underlying deterioration, with vocational order activity notably weaker and tractor orders showing little forward momentum.

With backlogs now near their lowest levels since 2016 and major fleets extending trade cycles, order activity continues to hover below replacement demand. Regulatory ambiguity remains a major overhang—especially as fleets await clarity on 2027 emissions compliance and potential tariff escalation.

OEMs are now operating with reduced daily builds and tighter forecasts, preparing for a potential demand downdraft in 2026 should key tariff decisions go against the industry. With limited near-term catalysts and continued policy opacity, the Class 8 market appears increasingly likely to remain in a defensive stance into mid-2026.