Class 8 Truck Orders

Class 8 Truck Orders

October 2025 Update

As of September 2025, the Class 8 truck market remains under heavy pressure, with orders continuing to decline as macro, trade, and regulatory headwinds intensify. Persistent freight softness, uncertainty surrounding the newly announced 232 heavy-duty import tariffs, and ongoing ambiguity over the EPA 2027 low-NOx rule are weighing heavily on fleet investment decisions. Public carriers remain cautious amid thin profitability and only marginal freight rate improvement, keeping capital expenditures focused on replacement rather than expansion.

ACT Research October 2025 Class 8 Orders

Class 8 net orders in September totaled 20,666 units, marking the weakest September performance since 2019. Orderboards for 2026 opened quietly as fleets delayed commitments amid tariff and cost uncertainty.

Cancellations were modest, but backlogs increased largely due to the 30% production cut from Q2 to Q3. OEMs are maintaining cautious build schedules into Q4, aligning production with softer demand and limited visibility on near-term policy outcomes.

The 232 tariffs—expected to add roughly 15–20% to the cost of imported Class 8 units assembled in Mexico—have further clouded the 2026 outlook. Roughly one-third of North American Class 8 production originates in Mexico, meaning fleets will face significant cost pressure unless the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs when it hears the case on November 5.

Class 8 Truck Orders Snapshot

Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for September registered 20.7k units, down from 37k in the same month last year. Seasonally adjusted, orders remain near an annualized pace below 200k units, well under replacement demand.

With OEMs reducing daily build rates and deferring output to align with orderbooks, the Class 8 market remains in a defensive posture. Absent a Supreme Court reversal on tariffs or a clear regulatory roadmap, 2026 appears poised for additional contraction before any sustained recovery can take hold into 2027.