Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2025

2025 Class 8 Truck Market

October 2025

Updated October 23, 2025

Infrastructure and Construction Support

Vocational Class 8 demand was stable in September, supported by ongoing infrastructure investment and steady municipal replacement activity. Vocational net orders were down, reflecting tough comparisons against last year’s record levels, but base demand remains intact across utility, refuse, and construction segments. Energy-related activity continues to lag, while soft housing and commercial construction are limiting upside.

OEMs report elevated inventories across non-tractor configurations, the result of earlier production outpacing actual demand. Manufacturers have slowed daily build rates into Q4 to reduce excess stock. Infrastructure-related freight tied to IIJA funding continues to provide a modest floor, but overall vocational momentum remains subdued as public project delays and high input costs constrain expansion.

Production and Backlogs

Class 8 production declined again in September as OEMs aligned builds more tightly with reduced order intake. Net orders totaled 20,666 units, down y/y, marking the weakest September since 2019.

Backlogs rose, largely due to slower builds rather than stronger demand. Inventories fell while the backlog-to-build (BL/BU) ratio increased to 6.2 months, its highest since mid-2020. OEMs remain focused on backlog alignment and margin protection, keeping production disciplined as 2026 orderboards open at a slow pace.

Regulatory Shifts

Regulatory uncertainty remains the key headwind in the 2025 outlook. The EPA 2027 low-NOx mandate continues to face legal challenges, and fleets broadly expect a delay or modification. This has effectively eliminated prebuy activity, with capital spending limited to essential replacements.

Meanwhile, 232 tariffs on imported Class 8 trucks and major components are adding substantial cost pressure. ACT estimates that these tariffs are inflating vehicle prices by 3–5% per unit, with greater exposure for units built in Mexico. Combined with high financing and insurance costs, these factors are deterring new commitments and weighing on fleet confidence.

Capacity Rebalancing

The Class 8 market is gradually moving toward equilibrium. Tractor inventories are beginning to normalize as OEMs trim builds, but vocational stockpiles remain elevated and represent a disproportionate share of total inventory. Production has fallen roughly one-quarter from early-year levels, while used truck transactions remain active as fleets de-fleet or reallocate older assets.

Retirements are increasing modestly, and the used equipment market is showing early signs of stabilization, though resale prices remain down nearly 30% y/y. Fleet capacity continues to exceed freight demand, keeping sales anchored around replacement levels. A sustained recovery will require stronger freight fundamentals and improved policy visibility into 2026.

Moderate Growth in Orders

September brought a brief uptick in total orders, but levels remain below replacement demand. Tractor orders were flat, and vocational orders softened amid higher cost burdens and slower infrastructure disbursements.

Cancellations stayed contained, suggesting that existing fleet commitments are stable even as new bookings slow. OEMs continue to manage production closely, prioritizing margin protection and backlog alignment over volume growth.

Economic Tailwinds and Risks

Infrastructure spending remains a modest tailwind for vocational and regional fleets, but broader economic pressures persist. Tariff-driven cost inflation, high financing costs, and slowing industrial output are straining fleet profitability.

Smaller carriers remain most exposed, facing tighter credit and limited pricing power. Freight-intensive sectors—particularly housing, manufacturing, and energy—remain weak, reinforcing the defensive tone across the market. As fleets navigate late 2025, priorities remain focused on cost containment, lifecycle management, and liquidity preservation, with expansion strategies deferred until macro and policy conditions stabilize.