Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2025

2025 Class 8 Truck Market

September 2025

Updated September 17, 2025

Infrastructure and Construction Support
Vocational Class 8 demand held steady in August, supported by infrastructure projects and municipal fleet replacement activity. However, headwinds from slowing construction starts, weak energy activity, and rising equipment costs continue to weigh on new order momentum. Elevated vocational inventories—stemming from last year’s production shift—remain a challenge, and OEMs are trimming build schedules further to prevent additional overhang. While non-cyclical demand from utilities and government provides some stability, overall vocational growth remains subdued.

Production and Backlogs
Class 8 production fell again in August, down from July levels as OEMs aligned output more tightly with order intake. Net orders totaled 13,200 units, essentially flat from July but down year-over-year, marking the eighth consecutive y/y decline. Tractor demand showed little sequential change, while vocational orders weakened further. Backlogs continued to contract, reaching their lowest level since 2016, with the backlog-to-build (BL/BU) ratio rising on slower production rather than stronger demand.

Regulatory Shifts
Regulatory uncertainty remains a defining weight on the 2025 outlook. The EPA 2027 low-NOx rules are now widely expected to be delayed, if not rolled back entirely, reducing prebuy incentive and delaying long-term investment plans. Fleets remain cautious, with capital strategies limited to replacement needs. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and imported vehicles are still inflating costs by 2–4% per unit, further deterring large-scale commitments. Combined, these factors are keeping fleet confidence muted.

Capacity Rebalancing
The Class 8 sector continues to move slowly toward balance. Tractor inventories are beginning to clear as OEMs adjust builds, but vocational stockpiles remain elevated, representing a disproportionate share of Class 8 inventory. OEMs have cut production plans by 25% from Q2 to Q3, and retirements have picked up modestly. Still, excess capacity persists across both tractors and vocational trucks, with replacement-level sales the dominant trend. A sustained recovery hinges on freight market stabilization and improved capital confidence.

Moderate Growth in Orders
August brought no meaningful change in overall order activity, with totals nearly flat month-over-month and below replacement thresholds. Tractor demand showed no real rebound, while vocational orders declined further under pressure from cost inflation and soft sector demand. Cancellations remained contained, suggesting committed demand is holding, but fleets remain firmly in wait-and-see mode. OEMs are prioritizing backlog alignment over volume growth, managing production closely to avoid further excess.

Economic Tailwinds and Risks
Infrastructure spending continues to provide a modest tailwind to vocational activity, but broader economic pressures are intensifying. Tariff-driven cost inflation, rising producer prices, and weakening labor market trends are eroding fleet profitability. Smaller and mid-sized carriers remain especially vulnerable, with limited access to credit and thin margins. Freight-producing sectors such as housing, energy, and manufacturing are showing further weakness, and sentiment in the for-hire carrier base remains negative. With Q3 unfolding slowly, fleets are emphasizing cost containment, asset efficiency, and liquidity preservation over expansion.