Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2025

2025 Class 8 Truck Market – May 2025

Infrastructure and Construction Support

Vocational Class 8 demand remains relatively resilient, buoyed by ongoing infrastructure activity and stable municipal funding. However, new public project starts have slowed further, reflecting tighter fiscal conditions and uncertainty around future stimulus. Construction activity is holding steady but continues to underperform earlier expectations. This has led to flat—but not expanding—vocational truck demand. In contrast, tractor demand continues to weaken, weighed down by soft freight volumes, elevated inventories, and reduced profitability across much of the for-hire sector.

Production and Backlogs

Class 8 production slowed sharply in April, with OEMs continuing to adjust output in line with reduced order intake. Build rates declined to 1,098 units per day, and April net orders dropped to just over 8,200 units—down nearly 50% year-over-year. Cancellations rose again, highlighting elevated fleet hesitancy amid rising costs and an uncertain outlook. Backlogs declined to 117,500 units, now broadly in line with seasonal norms. Q2 build slots are largely full, but Q3 capacity remains open, signaling fleet caution and delayed investment timing. The supply chain environment is mostly stable, helping manufacturers maintain production discipline and avoid inventory overhangs.

Regulatory Shifts

Regulatory planning remains in flux as EPA 2027 and GHG-3 rule reviews continue. While these standards still shape long-term fleet strategy, near-term uncertainty has stalled widespread prebuying. Fleets are increasingly adopting a conservative stance, waiting for more definitive policy direction before committing capital. Combined with tariff-driven increases in truck costs—estimated at over $350 per unit—this has led to a material slowdown in new order activity. Most fleets are managing toward compliance through selective replacement and deferred expansion.

Capacity Rebalancing

The Class 8 sector is progressing through a slow rebalancing process. Private fleets continue to capture freight share, while for-hire carriers are curbing unproductive capacity through parked equipment and limited new investment. Equipment exits have picked up, but overall capacity still exceeds demand. Load-to-truck ratios spiked temporarily in April due to seasonal demand and port-related activity, but further rebalancing will be necessary for sustained market tightening. Spot rate trends in the second half of 2025 will likely hinge on the pace of continued capacity discipline and freight recovery.

Moderate Growth in Orders

Order volumes remain well below replacement levels, especially for tractors. April net orders were among the weakest in years, reflecting broad caution across fleets. Vocational truck orders are more stable, supported by steady non-cyclical demand, but show little growth momentum. OEMs are focused on maintaining backlog health rather than ramping production. Elevated truck pricing, tighter credit, and persistent cost uncertainty are all reinforcing a cautious and selective investment approach across the market.

Economic Tailwinds and Risks

Vocational demand continues to benefit from infrastructure and municipal resilience, but macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying. Tariff-driven cost inflation, higher borrowing costs, and weak contract rates are putting pressure on fleet budgets—especially among smaller carriers. Regulatory ambiguity remains a barrier to investment, and fleet sentiment has deteriorated as profitability margins shrink. Most carriers are delaying major capital decisions in hopes of improved rate conditions and policy clarity in the back half of the year.