Class 8 Truck Sales Forecast for 2025

2025 Class 8 Truck Market

November 2025

Updated November 21, 2025

Infrastructure and Construction Support

Vocational Class 8 demand remained under pressure in October, reflecting subdued infrastructure activity and weak energy sector dynamics. Vocational net orders declined y/y, with ongoing softness in housing and commercial construction limiting upside. Public sector replacement activity continues but at a more measured pace.

OEMs report that non-tractor inventories remain elevated, especially in vocational configurations, where correction is slower than tractors. While infrastructure-related freight from IIJA funding still provides a modest floor, anecdotal feedback suggests a pullback in private fleet capex and cautious dealer sentiment. Public project delays and persistent cost inflation are stalling more meaningful momentum across utility and construction segments.

Production and Backlogs

Class 8 production fell sharply in October to 17,367 units, a y/y decline, despite October having the highest number of sales days in 2025. This drop aligns with weaker order activity and a strategic shift by OEMs to slow builds in response to excess inventories and recessionary-level carrier margins.

The backlog grew m/m, driven primarily by reduced build rates. The backlog-to-build (BL/BU) ratio held near 6.1 months (SA), indicating extended lead times despite tepid new demand. OEMs are maintaining a disciplined approach to backlog management, keeping 2026 orderboards relatively light.

Regulatory Shifts

Regulatory uncertainty remains the central headwind. The EPA 2027 low-NOx rule is less than 14 months away, but still lacks implementation clarity. Industry consensus is now shifting toward a potential rollback or delay of the warranty and useful life extensions, though the technology component is expected to remain intact. ACT’s base case assumes a partial rollback, with major regulatory risk pushed into late 2026.

At the same time, §232 tariffs on imported Class 8 trucks and components are now fully in effect, adding approximately $9,000–$10,000 per unit. Combined with additional tax and financing burdens, these costs are crimping fleet budgets and reducing order appetites—especially for imports or mixed-content vehicles.

Capacity Rebalancing

The Class 8 market is edging closer to capacity normalization. October marked the first sub-replacement retail month since “Liberation Day,” with retail sales down y/y. Inventories declined with most of the reduction occurring in tractors. Vocational inventories remain high.

Used truck sales held steady (+0.3% m/m), but resale values softened for a third straight month. Average retail prices fell 3.5% m/m, now down 8% y/y. Auction and wholesale pricing followed suit, with double-digit declines in October. This underscores ongoing pressure on secondary markets amid low freight volumes.

Moderate Growth in Orders

Total Class 8 orders in October came in down y/y. Despite a seasonally strong month, bookings were notably weak due to depressed freight activity and muted carrier profitability. Cancellations remained contained, indicating fleet plans are largely holding, even as new commitments are slow.

OEMs are managing volume cautiously, with margin protection and backlog stability prioritized over top-line growth. Without a clear freight recovery or regulatory pivot, demand is expected to hover around replacement levels through early 2026.

Economic Tailwinds and Risks

While infrastructure spending remains a tailwind, economic fragility continues to pressure Class 8 demand. Trade-related disruptions and cost inflation are sapping fleet profits. Freight-intensive sectors like housing, energy, and manufacturing remain soft. Publicly traded TL carriers posted another recessionary quarter with just 3.3% net margins, confirming ongoing financial stress.

Smaller carriers remain especially vulnerable, facing tight credit conditions and high operating costs. Until macroeconomic and regulatory clarity returns, fleet strategies remain conservative—focused on cost control, lifecycle extension, and liquidity preservation over fleet expansion.