North America Commercial Vehicle Forecast

Plan commercial vehicle decisions with a clearer view of the market ahead.

Commercial vehicle planning is shaped by shifting freight demand, economic cycles, regulatory timing, cost pressure, production constraints, powertrain change, and evolving fleet behavior.

Historical trends and internal assumptions are useful, but they are rarely enough on their own. ACT’s North America Commercial Vehicle Forecast gives customers an independent, forward-looking view of the market so they can evaluate future demand, align planning assumptions, and make decisions with greater confidence across the cycle.

The market signals behind commercial vehicle decisions are increasingly connected.

Across the commercial vehicle market, decision-makers are trying to interpret multiple signals at once:

Regulatory and policy changes create cost and timing uncertainty.
Emissions standards, trade dynamics, and policy changes can affect equipment costs, lead times, production plans, and replacement timing.

Market signals are fragmented.
Economic indicators, freight trends, order activity, build rates, inventories, fleet behavior, and used equipment values do not always move together.

Planning assumptions need external validation.
Executives, boards, investors, and customers often need an independent market view to support production plans, capital decisions, sales strategy, and long-term forecasts.

ACT helps connect these signals into a clearer view of commercial vehicle demand and market-cycle direction.

What you get with ACT’s North America Commercial Vehicle Forecast

A forward-looking view of commercial vehicle demand, production, market cycles, and planning implications.

What You Get

✔ Monthly Forecast Report

A monthly view of the commercial vehicle market across Classes 4–8 and trailers, including:

• Retail sales and production forecasts
• Economic and freight environment analysis
• Carrier, shipper, and fleet behavior insights
• Policy and regulatory implications
• Market-cycle indicators and trend interpretation
• Commentary from ACT economists and analysts

✔ Quarterly & Five-Year Forecast Tables

Detailed forecast tables designed to support planning and analysis across:

• North America, U.S., Canada, and Mexico
• Production and retail sales forecasts
• Classes 4, 5–7, 8, and major trailer categories
• Population and scrappage models by GVW and trailer type

✔ Insight on Key Industry Drivers

ACT tracks the forces that shape commercial vehicle market performance across cycles, including:

• Freight economics and transportation-sector trends
• Carrier profitability and capacity adjustments
• Macroeconomic indicators across North America
• Regulatory and emissions changes
• Trade and import/export dynamics
• Supply chain, inventory, and order-flow patterns

✔ Independent Market Perspective

ACT provides an independent view of commercial vehicle demand and market-cycle direction. Customers use ACT forecasts to support internal planning, validate assumptions, and communicate market expectations with leadership, customers, investors, and partners.

Not sure which forecast is right for your planning need?

Compare North America Commercial Vehicle Outlook and Outlook Plus to understand which solution best fits your market question, planning horizon, and level of powertrain or regulatory detail needed.

The value of an independent commercial vehicle market view

ACT helps customers evaluate the market with data, methodology, and analyst interpretation that are independent of any single OEM, carrier, fleet, investor, or policy position.

Independent, data-informed intelligence

ACT provides market intelligence built on data, methodology, and analyst interpretation — not the interests of a single market participant.

Decades of commercial vehicle market experience

ACT’s forecasts are used by transportation, manufacturing, finance, dealer, leasing, fleet, and investment teams that need a trusted view of commercial vehicle market direction.

Clarity your team can use

ACT turns complex indicators, economic signals, production data, order activity, and regulatory factors into market intelligence that supports practical planning decisions.

Industry recognition and trust

ACT’s work is cited in leading economic and industry forums and recognized for its forecasting rigor, market perspective, and analytical discipline.

When the market sends mixed signals, ACT helps customers understand what those signals may mean for the decisions ahead.

Who uses this forecast — and how it supports planning

Different teams use ACT’s North America Commercial Vehicle Forecast in different ways, but all rely on it to understand commercial vehicle market direction and strengthen planning assumptions.

OEMs & Suppliers

Evaluate demand, align production and capacity, support supply chain planning, monitor competitive dynamics, and prepare for cycle turns.

Fleets & Logistics Providers

Time capital purchases, evaluate replacement cycles, understand equipment availability, and prepare for regulatory, freight, or cost changes.

Dealers & Leasing Companies

Forecast customer demand, plan inventory, evaluate used equipment strategy, manage residual risk, and support lease or portfolio assumptions.

Banks, Lenders & Investors

Assess market-cycle risk, model portfolio exposure, evaluate collateral values, and support investment or credit decisions.

Government & Policy Stakeholders

Understand the commercial vehicle market environment and evaluate economic, regulatory, infrastructure, and public planning implications.

Each audience uses ACT forecasting differently, but all rely on the same foundation: independent data, disciplined methodology, and analyst interpretation.