Commercial Vehicle & Transportation



ACT Research is leading the way once again, diving into a second multi-client study forecasting commercial electric vehicle forecasting. This is the essential guide for future build and unit sales of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles over the next two decades.


The Charge Forward to Electric

Working with our participants to define:

Build & Unit Sale Forecast 2020-2030, 2035, 2040

GVW Classes 4-8 Including:

  • Step Van
  • Conventional
  • Low Cab Forward
  • RV
  • School Bus
  • Transit Bus
  • Straight Truck
  • Day Cab
  • Sleepers

Custom TCO Analysis of 14 market subsegments and 23 application types.

Diesel + Battery Electric + Fuel Cell Electric comparisons by segment and application

“It’s fabulous. The information you’ll get out of that (ACT’s 2018 CEV Study) saves you the time it would take to gather it all yourself. We get a lot of information suppliers and OEM partners. . . [ACT was] able to bring it all together as well as add additional richness to it, so I would highly recommend you look to get it.”

Paul Rosa

SVP Procurement & Fleet Planning

On August 8, 2020, ACT’s Tim Denoyer was interviewed in the New York Times article “Soon, The Kittle Litter Will Come by Electric Truck,” an article about the future of electric commercial vehicles.

ACT’s Jim Meil was interviewed in Modern Tire Dealer Magazine on the findings of ACT’s electric vehicle study, CHARGING FORWARD, published June 23, 2021.

The Future of Commercial Vehicles

Electric-based propulsion systems for commercial vehicles are likely to capture a substantial share of the commercial vehicle market over the next two decades, threatening to displace internal combustion engines, today’s dominant power source. This constitutes the most revolutionary development for the motor vehicle industry in the last 100 years. The migration to electric power will likely lead to major changes to adapt on the part of current industry participants while opening the door to new entrants.  In response, major initiatives have been announced in the last few years by both existing and new players.

The introduction of prototype models in North America, the share gains of electric vehicles in the adjacent light vehicle space, trends for cost reduction and performance improvement, the stream of exciting new product introductions, plus carrot-and-stick incentives and mandates from regulators (along with sustainability interests of business and the public-at-large) give us confidence that electric-powered vehicles, in some form, will realize increasing unit sales in the years ahead.

Decision-making executives, product developers, corporate planning and development departments, sales and marketing staff, the investment community, plus regulators and other stakeholders need reliable, well-founded long-term projections of sales potential and share gains for these new power technologies.  As internal combustion engines (ICE: diesel and natural gas) and electrification (batteries and fuel cells) battle for customers, the ultimate outcome will depend both on financial benefits in the comparative total cost of operations, and the need to meet compliance goals for current and future environmental regulations.

ACT Research is uniquely positioned to forecast these market developments.  Starting as early as 2011 with our first report on natural gas-powered commercial vehicles, ACT Research has been at the forefront in analyzing and forecasting the growth of alternative fuels and power in the North American market.  This leadership position was affirmed in 2018 with the release of its first commercial electric vehicle report, Commercial Vehicle Electrification: To Charge or Not to Charge, a comprehensive review, and forecast of sales and share trends for battery electric power within the broader commercial vehicle universe.

Given the progress of the technology, products, and evolution of the competitive arena since the publication of the 2018 report, the time has come to revisit the original study, to refresh the assumptions and the resulting market outlook.

If you and your company want to understand the potential of these technologies, have access to key metrics that spell out in detail where this marketplace is headed, and how those changes could impact your business, a charter subscription to this newly refreshed study is critical for you.

To review the webinar we hosted to review this work, please click HERE.