Commercial Vehicle & Transportation

CHARGING FORWARD

2022-2040 BATTERY & FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FORECAST & ANALYSIS

For businesses working to understand the future of decarbonized Classes 4-8 vehicles, ACT Research has developed a groundbreaking report that collects and analyzes propulsion systems evolution of battery and fuel cell electric, government regulations and subsidies, electric and hydrogen supply and infrastructure, as well as a total-cost-of-ownership model of 23 vehicle applications across North America thru 2040.

Get CHARGING FORWARD

The Charge Forward to Electric

There is a growing need for quality information to support businesses as they work to address science-based targets, meet regulatory guidelines, and still turn a profit.

There is an insufficiency of industry-wide understanding, standardization, and aggregation of battery and fuel cell electric commercial vehicle technology resources, unit economic driven total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) models, and adoption rate forecasts across Classes 4-8 vehicles.

  • Are you working to quantify the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for decarbonized commercial vehicles?
  • Do you need an industry-recognized, independent forecast for investor credibility, fleet payback, and pricing advantages?
  • Do you need a comparable and deep dive into the various technology models and their adoption by application?
  • What about the information on keeping up to date on infrastructure development impact, timeline, potential updates, and impact on adoption? Not to mention government subsidies and incentives.

Where do you go when you want to be green and still make some green? What you need is a one-stop resource that collects and analyzes all the relevant and necessary information on propulsion system technology, battery, and fuel cell technology, charging, and infrastructure, government regulations, and subsidies, while also taking a deep dive into technology adoption and long-term strategic forecasting by duty cycle across Classes 4-8 vehicles.

We’ve worked with commercial vehicle OEMs, suppliers, new entrant technology suppliers, fleets, dealers, and financial firms for more than 30 years providing award-winning market data, industry analysis, and forecasting services. In addition, we’ve performed several deep-dives on alternative power trains, starting with natural gas in the early 2010s. With a wealth of understanding of the transportation market, we realized that we are the ideal company with the knowledge, skill, and expertise to provide actionable intelligence for better business planning, preparation, and budgeting for the road ahead.

For businesses working to understand the future of electric Classes 4-8 vehicles, ACT Research has developed a groundbreaking report that collects and analyzes propulsion systems evolution of battery and fuel cell electric, government regulations and subsidies, electric and hydrogen supply, and infrastructure as well as a total-cost-of-ownership model of 23 vehicle applications across North America thru 2040.

That’s why ACT Research has developed CHARGING FORWARD, an economic-driven, bottoms-up analysis of the North American battery and fuel cell electric vehicle market, and a one-stop resource combining first-hand industry knowledge of battery and fuel cell commercial electric vehicle market leaders with ACT’s expertise in analysis and forecasting to provide a first-of-its-kind business planning tool. By collaborating with nearly 40 of the leaders in battery and fuel cell technology for Classes 4-8 vehicles, ACT Research has developed an extensive and highly-regarded report analyzing and forecasting adoption rates of 23 vehicle applications across North America thru 2040. Recognized as the leader in commercial vehicle demand forecasting, ACT Research has developed and aggregated information across North America on propulsion systems technology development covering battery and fuel cell electric powertrains, government regulations and subsidies, electric and hydrogen supply and infrastructure, and crafted a total-cost-of-ownership model complete with three scenarios (base, slow, fast adoption) that are regarded by new and legacy OEMs, Tier 1 & 2 Suppliers, investment firms, and fleets as the best in the market.

The reports [ACT Research] has produced on electric vehicles were unbelievable, incredibly valuable, and we tell our customers if you really want to go deeper into this conversation, go to [ACT Research].

Paul Rosa

SVP Procurement & Fleet Planning

Download Report Examples

Charging Into Tomorrow

CHARGING FORWARD covers eight specific target areas to lay the foundation of our research and assumptions including economic assumptions, propulsion systems technology, battery technology, fuel cell technology, government regulations and subsidies, electric supply and charging infrastructure, hydrogen supply and fueling infrastructure, and total-cost-of-ownership. These items are outlined in detail in the analysis PDF document, part of the three deliverables provided with the findings. Charging Forward: 2023-2040 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis

Economic Assumptions – Utilize ACT’s award-winning economic forecasts so you can understand the macro perspective of the North American economy and its impact on commercial vehicle production.

Propulsion Systems Technology – An aggregation and comparison of the benefits and challenges of battery and fuel cell electric-power against diesel powertrain vehicles so you can monitor and assess the technology opportunities and challenges of each propulsion type.

Battery Technology – Understand the current and future trends of battery technology including energy density, reliability, and cycle life so you can understand how the adoption of battery technology may be impacted by emerging trends.

Fuel Cell Technology – With insights into the current challenges and opportunities of fuel cell technology, comparisons of diesel powers and battery electric vehicles, as well as future trends in fuel cell development this section will help provide an in-depth exploration of fuel cell technology and its path to adoption.

Government: Regulations & Subsidies – A detailed list of net-zero targets, pledges, timelines, and incentives that are driving electric vehicle adoption by governments so you can identify opportunities and keep information on changes.

Electric Supply & Charging Infrastructure – Will there be enough electricity generating capacity to serve the incremental demand for commercial vehicle charging and will it come from “green” sources? This section will collect and summarize the data on capacity, as well as the considerations of carbon emissions, and grid reliability addresses these questions.

Hydrogen Supply & Fueling Infrastructure – A summary of current global hydrogen initiatives, global collaborations, and a review of hydrogen applications, production, and fuel infrastructure so you can weigh the economic benefits lined out in our analysis.

Total-Cost-of-Ownership – This TCO model drives the calculations for market share adoption, based on economic considerations of a more favorable TCO versus the incumbent diesel ICE powertrains, coupled with an investment payback period so you can have a method consistent with considerations of a commercial vehicle buyer when making investment decisions to purchase or lease. Included is a base, slow, and fast case scenario of each of the 85 unique vehicle applications for all regions and countries.

Build & Unit Sale Forecast 2023-2030, 2035, 2040

GVW Classes 4-8 Including:

  • Step Van
  • Conventional
  • Low Cab Forward
  • RV
  • School Bus
  • Transit Bus
  • Straight Truck
  • Day Cab
  • Sleepers

Custom base, slow, and fast case TCO Analysis of 14 market subsegments and 23 application types.

Diesel + Battery Electric + Fuel Cell Electric comparisons by segment and application

ACT Research Client

“The information we get from ACT…it’s crucial really to everything that we do. I would recommend ACT as your number 1 ‘go to’ source for industry forecasts and just general industry knowledge…You cannot follow this industry, or be part of this industry without knowing what ACT Research is saying…

Mike Zimm

What is actionable intelligence from an industry expert worth to your business?

An Invitation…

Businesses often pay five or six figures for custom project work, benefiting and utilizing our forecasts and insights for planning, preparing, and budgeting for the road ahead. That’s why we’ve developed CHARGING FORWARD: 2022-2040 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, to bring together ACT’s industry expertise with first-hand knowledge from nearly 40 players in the commercial electric vehicle market for the low cost of $28,000, saving you time and money without sacrificing quality, valuable information.

Would you like to contribute to the next edition? We invite your organization to join ACT Research and the nearly 40 industry participants in furthering this research as we look to provide our third update to CHARGING FORWARD in 2023. Sign on to become a multi-client participant for the third edition of the report and you’ll receive 30% off the final results (published in 2023) plus our current findings at no additional cost upon sign-up. Join before February 15, 2023, to receive both editions of the study along with your 30% discount.

The transportation industry is charging forward with decarbonization vehicles, but there are still unanswered questions about infrastructure, electric capacity and supply, natural gas utilization, if H2 internal combustion is viable, duty cycles, and payback. That’s why we’ve created this tool, to provide guidance for strategic business planning over the next 20 years. For a limited time, we’re calling on and working with battery and fuel cell electric, natural gas, hydrogen, and gasoline vehicle OEMs, suppliers, infrastructure suppliers, fleets, and more to continue to provide actionable intelligence with our third edition of CHARGING FORWARD.

You’ll gain access starting with a kick-off call, followed by delivery of the CHARGING FORWARD report and TCO models for review. Next, a review call will be scheduled to address any questions and review our assumptions. Then, we’ll review our Onboarding Questionnaire and recap the response in a follow-up call. Delivery of the third edition will be completed and presented in 2023.

Kick-Off Call – The goal is to make introductions to define roles on both sides of the partnership. In addition, understanding the objectives and needs of the participants, as well as those of ACT Research and the result of the end product is necessary to ensure all parties are on the same page. Finally, the next steps are addressed and outlined, including an overview of the Onboarding Questionnaire. Once the kick-off call is completed, the report deliverables (PDF analysis document, excel TCO models, and executive summary PPTX) will be delivered via email.

Onboarding Questionnaire – This document is a standardized list of more than 40 questions for all participants to review and address. Through responses, the research team at ACT is armed with additional data points to better refine and develop the TCO model. A follow-up call to review the questions (replies accepted in both written and oral form), dig into details, and add context to the results is a key aspect of this process.

Initial TCO Call – On a call approximately one to three weeks after the Onboarding Questionnaire follow-up, the ACT team will review the model and how it has been developed. At this time we encourage questions and challenge the assumptions that will then be taken into consideration when revising the model.

Intermediate Updates – Once the TCO call is completed, our team will reach out for follow-ups and questions on an intermediate basis as they discuss items with other participants and continue to develop the model.

Preliminary Report – A timetable has yet to be established, but roughly 45 days prior to publishing the third edition of the report, the ACT team will deliver a preliminary document for review by all participants. The preliminary document will include an analysis document, digging into the total available market, regulations, infrastructure, safety, insurance, and detailed TCO analysis by application, as well as the TCO models reviewing the base, slow, and fast adoption rates scenarios. We ask for review and feedback on the preliminary findings via a video call.

Final Report – Again, nearly 45 days post preliminary feedback, ACT Research will present the final report via email as a zip file with the PDF analysis document, three excel TCO models, as well as an executive summary PPTX. At this time, we’ll request a date for the executive summary call with our research team to review the findings and address any questions you may have.

Why Particiapte?

The perspective of OEMs, suppliers, new entrants, dealers, and fleets is essential for our continuously developing TCO and forecast models that provide unparalleled insight into the forecast trajectory of adoption and production of decarbonized commercial vehicles. That’s why we’re extending an invitation to join ACT Research and the nearly 40 industry participants in furthering this research. We look to provide our third edition of CHARGING FORWARD in 2023.

Participate in the third edition of CHARGING FORWARD and receive: Access to the current findings upon agreement, a Discount on the study’s current and final documents, input on and review of our work (TCO model, assumptions, etc.) Executed via video calls and emails as your team has availability Updated study findings to be completed in 2023 Analysis document TCO models (base, slow, fast case adoption) Executive summary document Executive summary call reviewing findings with our team AND no additional purchase is required for the updated study delivered in Q2’23 plus 6 months of forecast updates through the end of 2023

Experience Matters

As the leader in forecasting demand for Classes 4-8 vehicles, it’s a natural extension that we look to support the market with a bottom-up TCO model used for forecasting decarbonization of commercial vehicles and commercial autonomous vehicle adoption. This process, like the technology, has evolved as we work with multi-client participants to understand and develop a standard for EV and AV adoption rates by application.

If you’re in need of quality, industry insights, and actionable intelligence from an industry expert on the future of commercial vehicle battery and fuel cell electrification, then act now. Complete the form below to get started working with the ACT Research team. Or, do you have more questions and want to talk through the report with a member of our team? Then fill out the form below to schedule a call. The deadline for additional multi-client participants is February 15, 2023. Don’t miss your opportunity to take advantage of working with the expert team at ACT Research, provide input into this groundbreaking work, receive a 30% discount on the final report, and get a jump start with our initial TCO analysis. Join us in our continuous effort to better understand and anticipate the charge forward.