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Commercial Autonomous Vehicle Study

Commercial Vehicle & Transportation


What will adoption of autonomous vehicle applications look like over the next 10 or 20 years?

With numerous technology applications and a current lack of mass adoption, the path to understanding the autonomous technology horizon is quality economic modeling. ACT Research, the gold standard in market data, forecasting, and total-cost-of-ownership development for the commercial vehicle market, is developing a report aggregating relevant market information, taking a deep dive into autonomous models, and presenting a technology adoption rate forecast over a 20-year horizon.

Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Study Briefing

The Path to Autonomous

There is a gap in the autonomous commercial vehicle market. A lack of industry-wide understanding, standardization, and aggregation of autonomous commercial vehicle technology resources often lead to more questions than answers.

  • What’s the real Total Addressable Market (TAM)?
  • Is there a standardized, independent forecast from a credible market source?
  • Can’t there be a one-stop for all the technology models and applications?
  • Why aren’t all the regulatory information and updates centralized?
  • What is the real impact on safety and insurance?

What if there was a resource that collected and analyzed all the necessary information on regulations, infrastructure, insurance, and safety, while also taking a deep dive into technology model adoption and long-term strategic forecasting?

There is a solution. ACT Research has worked with commercial vehicle OEMs and suppliers, fleets and dealers, leasing and investment firms for more than 30 years providing award-winning market data, industry analysis, and forecasting services. With a deep understanding of the transportation market, we realized that we are the ideal company with the experience and expertise to provide actionable intelligence to support businesses’ needs to better prepare, plan, and budget for the road ahead.

Are you trying to develop the TAM?

Need an independent total cost-of-ownership (TCO) analysis?

Or, do you just want all the information on regulations, infrastructure, insurance, and safety in one place?

That’s why ACT Research is developing a multi-client autonomous commercial vehicle report; a one-stop resource combining first-hand industry knowledge of autonomous commercial vehicle market leaders, regulators, and fleets with ACT’s expertise in analysis and forecasting to provide a first-of-its-kind business tool.

With numerous technology applications and a current lack of mass adoption, the path to understanding the autonomous technology horizon is quality economic modeling. ACT Research, the gold standard in market data, forecasting, and total-cost-of-ownership development for the commercial vehicle market, is developing a report aggregating relevant market information, taking a deep dive into autonomous models, and presenting a technology adoption rate forecast over a 20-year horizon.

I would recommend ACT Research to anyone that’s looking for in-depth insight into what’s happening in the commercial vehicle markets. The expertise and knowledge that goes into the service they provide, there’s not a better solution, in my opinion, for commercial vehicle data than ACT Research.”

Jeff Trent

Marketing Manager, Mahle

The Future of Transportation

The scope of the report will focus on six areas including a market overview, total available market (TAM), regulations and infrastructure considerations, vehicle total cost-of-ownership (TCO), autonomous models’ impact, and autonomous forecasts. Upon completion, ACT will deliver a written analysis document, excel TCO models complete with base, high-end, and low-end adoption scenarios, and an executive summary power point document.

Total Available Market – Utilize ACT’s propriety Cl4-8 population model and award-winning economist analysis so you can understand the revenue opportunity available and prioritize your business opportunities. For more than 35 years ACT has been collecting Cl4-8 production data from the North American OEMs. With this data, we’ve developed a population model using a stock-replacement structure to determine the population required to meet economic activity. There are two pieces to the conclusion of the model, the number of trucks that need to be replaced and the change in population required to meet the new level of economic activity. Next, utilizing regulations, major freight corridors, and resultant freight valuations allows us to determine the total available market for potential autonomous applications.

Regulations, Infrastructure Considerations, Labor, & Safety – While still evolving, upon publication this will be a one-stop document for all information on regulations and infrastructure, as well as an analysis of the impact of current and pending regulations so you can focus on what matters most. Instead of scouring the internet, attending webinars, or seeking insights into the potential impact of these areas and logging the results away, our team will collect and organize, giving you more time to focus on your role and support your business goals.

Vehicle TCOWith coverage of utilization, fuel economy, maintenance, and more, we’ll dig into the details of each autonomous application accompanied by our excel TCO model. We’ll present a base, slow, and fast case forecast in an open excel document, giving you scenarios to understand business opportunities. In addition, the excel format will allow you to modify and update the tool so you can utilize ACT’s forecast as a baseline and customize the model to fit your needs. This is the core of the report, a unit economic model with a bottoms-up approach that analyzes all cost inputs thru 2040, allowing for scenarios analysis, and visibility of the cost impact of weather, regulations, and more,

Executive Summary Presentation & Call – Gain additional insights and clarity from our research team with an extensive review of the work, including an opportunity to ask your most pressing questions so you can better understand our conclusions and insights. 

Draft Reviews (for participants only) – Multi-client participants will receive three editions of the TCO model to review. The initial TCO model is reviewed as part of the second phase of the process. Then, the refined TCO is shared as a preliminary document, followed by the final TCO deliverable with the Vehicle TCO analysis document as a guide through the model so you can view and challenges assumptions, seeing the transition of the document over time to the conclusion.

Annual Units, 2023-2040

Autonomous Population

  • Total Trucking Market Size
    • Population and Mileage Analysis, and Freight Rate Analysis & Forecasts of:
      • MD 4-7 Distribution
      • MD 4-7 Vocational
      • HD 8 Distribution
      • HD 8 OTR
      • HD 8 Vocational
  • On-highway trucking market size
    • Local versus highway freight rates
  • US, Canada breakdown
    • Local versus highway freight rates
  • Utilization
  • Labor productivity
    • Driver pay
    • Driver demographics
    • FMCSA Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse
  • Safety
    • Insurance
    • Liability
    • Network Security
  • Driver plus AI team model
  • Driver-out with off-highway support
  • Headhaul-only model

“It’s fabulous. The information you’ll get out of that (ACT’s EV Report) saves you the time it would take to gather it all yourself. We get a lot of information suppliers and OEM partners. . . [ACT was] able to bring it all together as well as add additional richness to it, so I would highly recommend you look to get it.”

Paul Rosa

Penske Transportation Solutions

Actionable Intelligence

What is practical, useful, hands-on information from an industry expert worth to your business?

Many businesses have paid five and six figures for our custom project work, utilizing our forecasts and insights to position their businesses for success down the road. Once published, ACT’s Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Report will be available at $18,000.

Or, join ACT’s multi-client report before August 19th and you’ll receive 40% off the final results plus our initial TCO model and kick-off call upon sign-up. Once the time runs out, the price will go back up and you’ll lose early access to the TCO model and research team.

The path to autonomous adoption is coming fast, but regulations are still in development. We’re creating this tool, to provide guidance for business planning that would allow you to be in a strategic position for regulation implementation. That’s why for a limited time we’re calling on and working with autonomous technology suppliers, OEMs, suppliers, fleets, etc. to provide first-hand insights into our work.

You’ll gain access starting with a kick-off call, followed by our Onboarding Questionnaire, and TCO model after completing your order. Delivery of the report conclusions will be sent by email in late Q3 2022.

Want more details about the process and timeline?

  • Kick-Off Call – The goal is to make introductions to define roles on both sides of the partnership. In addition, understanding the objectives of the participants, as well as those of ACT Research and the result of the product is necessary to ensure all parties are on the same page. Finally, the next steps are addressed and outlined, including an overview of the Onboarding Questionnaire.
  • Onboarding Questionnaire – This document is a standardized list of more than 40 questions for all participants. Through your answers, the research team at ACT is armed with additional data points to better refine and develop the TCO model. A follow-up call to review the questions (replies accepted in both written and oral form) to dig into details and add context to the results is required.
  • Initial TCO Call – Upon completion of the Onboarding Questionnaire call, our research team will deliver the initial TCO model for review. On a call approximately one to three weeks later, the ACT team will review the model and how it has been developed. At this time we encourage questions and challenging of our assumptions taking the feedback into review and updating.
  • Intermediate Updates – Once the TCO call is completed, our team will reach out for follow-ups and questions on an intermediate basis as they discuss items with other participants and continue to develop the model.
  • Preliminary Report – In early Q3 of 2022, the ACT team will deliver a preliminary document for review by all participants. The preliminary document will include an analysis document, digging into the total available market, regulations, infrastructure, safety, insurance, and detailed TCO analysis by application, as well as the TCO model in excel. We ask for review and feedback on the preliminary via call.
  • Final Report – In late Q3 2022, we’ll present the final report via email as a zip file with the PDF analysis document, three excel TCO models, as well as an executive summary PPTX. At this time, we’ll request a date for the executive summary call with our research team to review the findings and address any questions you may have.

Act now, complete the form below to get started on this process with the ACT Research team. Have more questions or want to talk through the report with a member of our team? Fill out the form below to schedule a call. The deadline for additional multi-client participants is August 19, 2022. Don’t miss your opportunity to take advantage of working with the expert team at ACT Research, provide input into this ground-breaking work, receive a 40% discount on the final report, and get a jump start with our initial TCO analysis. Join us in our continuous effort to better understand and anticipate the road ahead.

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