After a 2025 mired in stagnant freight rates and beset by regulatory and policy uncertainty, 2026 begins with signs of cautious optimism for tractor and vocational markets, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Firstly, the economy, aided by AI tailwinds, continues to outperform expectations, with GDP rising 4.3% in Q3. Crucially for the trucking industry, consumer spending remains robust, accounting for more than half of Q3 GDP growth,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Though concerns about the balance of growth persist, as wealthy households are behind most of the spending.”
Vieth added, “Secondly, spot rates surged through November and December, helped by resilient consumer spending, severe weather, and a quickening of capacity contractions. Though much of the gains are likely to reverse if January weather continues to warm.”
“Lastly, EPA’s mid-November announcement regarding EPA’27 added much needed regulatory clarity, and based on December’s preliminary orders, likely drove some decision making. ACT’s preliminary look at December data shows NA Class 8 net orders totaled 42,700 units, up 16% y/y,” he continued. “In addition to regulatory pressures aiding demand, an increasingly older fleet should facilitate some additional replacement demand in 2026.”
“Like the tractor market, the vocational market was caught in regulatory and policy headwinds throughout 2025, but appears poised for a better-than-previously-expected 2026,” Vieth concluded.
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
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ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
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New tractor demand remains subdued, as uneven growth in key freight generating sectors, growth-sapping economic policy, and lingering overcapacity have slowed the path out of the long and ongoing for-hire recession, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Recent clarity regarding EPA’27 is welcomed, but as we have reiterated, truckers buy trucks when they make money. While regulatory clarity is helpful, at current low levels of carrier profitability and returns on investment, barring an unforeseen shift in economic fortunes, a tractor prebuy is highly unlikely but could spur some marginal activity later in 2026, as supply-demand conditions for carriers improve,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Additionally, the trucking industry is contending with recently enacted §232 tariffs that placed a 25% levy on the value of foreign content in imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses. With the for-hire market entering a third consecutive year of generationally low profitability, and freight rates generally moving sideways, tariff-driven equipment cost increases will help to constrain already weak new US vehicle demand.”
Vieth added, “Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short- to medium-term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and emissions regulations. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads, and data centers remain positive for construction-related vocational equipment in the long run.”
The list of 2026 demand headwinds is long:
- Freight rates and for-hire carrier profits remain mired at recessionary levels,
- A freight air-pocket happening now that follows an extended tariff-avoiding freight pull-forward,
- Corrosive tariff-driven goods inflation that will weigh on freight volumes,
- A pullback by private fleets after significant fleet expansion in 2023-2024,
- And macro-level uncertainty around US economic policy.
Tariffs boosting new vehicle prices on top of recession-level market conditions are just one more obstacle in an already obstacle-strewn 2026 demand outlook.
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