October preliminary North America Classes 5-8 net orders of 40.0k units declined 17% y/y. Complete industry data for October, including final order numbers, will be published by ACT Research in mid-November.
“Preliminary Class 8 orders totaled 24,500 units in October, down 21% y/y, a notably weak number when you take into consideration October is seasonally the strongest month for orders with a 25% seasonal factor. This is the time of year when next year’s backlogs get built,” shared Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Rising costs, still weak spot rates, and ongoing uncertainty continue to hamper for-hire carriers, and as a result, have led to a muted order season to date. Additionally, private fleet demand has slowed after recent expansion.”
Regarding medium duty, he added, “Preliminary reporting shows October NA Classes 5-7 orders decreased 11% y/y to 15,500 units. Economic uncertainty and rising consumer pessimism continue to weigh on Classes 5-7 demand.”
State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Report Overview
ACT’s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report provides a monthly look at the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It differentiates market indicators by Class 5, Classes 6-7 chassis and Class 8 trucks and tractors, detailing measures such as backlog, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and retail sales. Additionally, Class 5 and Classes 6-7 are segmented by trucks, buses, RVs, and step van configurations, while Class 8 is segmented by trucks and tractors with and without sleeper cabs. This report includes a six-month industry build plan, backlog timing analysis, historical data from 1996 to the present in spreadsheet format, and a ready-to-use graph package. A first-look at preliminary net orders is also published in conjunction with this report.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 20,666 units in September, down 44% y/y, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
“This was the weakest September for orders since 2019 as tariffs, carrier profits, and regulatory limbo continue to drive industry uncertainty,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Worryingly, the new §232 on imported trucks risks onerous cost increases come November 1, at a time when industry demand is already under pressure. For-hire carriers remain stuck contending with the longest freight downturn in recent history, and private fleets have pulled back.”
“While capacity is starting to exit the market at a quicker clip, a necessary evil for spot rate improvement, softening demand in the short term will counterbalance tightening supply. As a result, Class 8 tractor orders totaled 12,654 units, down 26% y/y,” he continued. “Vocational Class 8 orders totaled a healthy 8,012 units, down 60% y/y, but that compares to last September’s record vocational order of ~20k units as new production capacity came online. Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be affected in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and regulations.”
Regarding medium duty, Vieth added, “Total Classes 5-7 orders fell 19% y/y to 16,133 units. MD orders have slowed notably this year, as still-elevated inventories, a weaker economic outlook, and notably increased consumer pessimism weigh on MD demand.”
Class 8:
Net Orders: 20.7k, -44% y/y
Classes 5-7:
Net Orders: 16.1k, -19% y/y
Click here to learn more information about ACT's State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 Vehicles data.
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