A supply-driven freight cycle doesn’t imply strong volumes, and this time is no different. The current 30% y/y increase in truckload spot rates, net fuel, coming out of Roadcheck, is driven primarily by tighter capacity, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Improving survey data, including a jump in the ACT For-Hire Volume Index, suggest our friends at medium and large dry van and reefer fleets are beginning to see significantly stronger demand, even as the broader market does not,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “The source of this early demand increase is primarily capacity reduction, which has accelerated this year due to an incipient driver shortage.”
“While the goods economy is providing little lift, the key question becomes, how bad will the driver situation get? In a word, worse. Truckload spot rates have risen materially in recent months as the ACT For-Hire Driver Availability Index has declined. This index was above 50, meaning a surfeit, rather than a shortage, from June 2022 to December 2025, 43 straight months. It fell to 30.4 in April. New FMCSA regulations have acted as a catalyst, and seem likely to result in tighter capacity and higher rates from here,” Denoyer concluded.
Freight Forecast Report Overview
The monthly 58-page ACT freight forecast provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.
ACT Research Overview
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
The US trucking industry hasn’t had a driver shortage in four years, but recent regulatory changes have accelerated the tightening, supporting higher freight rates, as discussed in the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Spot truckload rates have been rising significantly for several months driven by several factors, but we see the return to driver shortage as a critical factor as the industry prepares for Roadcheck,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “After a four-year bottoming phase of the for-hire cycle, we believe tighter supply has moved us to the early cycle phase where capacity has become short, pressing rates higher.”
“In addition to new Class 8 tractor sales below levels needed to sustain the fleet for over a year now, our survey of medium and large fleets shows we have entered another driver shortage, the third in the past decade. As the new nondomicile CDL rules took effect in mid-March, the ACT Driver Availability Index tightened 4.8 points, to 35.0 in March from 39.8 in February.
“Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates. The past two rate cycles started around the time this index fell below 40. With effects of regulations likely to increase and equipment costs set to rise in 2027, it will be a massive challenge to turn the tide of tightening capacity, likely supporting a longer than normal cycle, in our view.
“While the TL driver shortage is front and center, we also added six new intermodal volume forecasts this month, with thanks to our new partners at the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA),” Denoyer concluded.
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