Recent China government policy changes impact short-term commercial vehicle forecast

Posted on 26. Sep, 2017 by in China, Classes 5-8, Press Releases

COLUMBUS, IN – A recent regulation indicates a continued tightening in the most polluted areas of China, supporting the ongoing shift to natural gas tractors and trucks with newer emission technologies. Other notable government policy changes have brought a one-time increase in heavy and medium duty market populations, according to the most recent China Commercial Vehicle Outlook, jointly published quarterly by ACT and China’s State Information Center (SIC). The Outlook includes an overview of the China economy and a review and forecast of China’s heavy and medium-duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China.

In the short-term, heavy trucks and tractors, as well as medium duty trucks, are expected to see year-over-year growth continue in Q3’2017. “Pro-growth, but at a lower rate, continues to be the primary focus as a current level of macroeconomic activity,” said Robert Perkins, Senior Global Business Consultant at ACT Research. He continued, “With the current supply-side restructuring and general slowing of the macroeconomy, we anticipate that infrastructure investment will be China’s one economic counterbalance.”

For the China market, sales of medium duty and heavy duty trucks, including tractors, divide into two categories: those bought to increase the vehicle population and those bought as replacements. Three factors determine commercial vehicle population: total amount of freight to be transported, share of that freight moved via highway, and transport capacity and efficiency per vehicle. “Demand for these commercial vehicles is expected to be near 800,000 units per year in the next five years,” said Perkins. He continued, “However, as efficiency and per-vehicle capacity improves, a fluctuating downward trend has started to emerge.”

SIC is affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission of China and is engaged in research on the macro-economy, key industries and information technology.

ACT is the worldwide leading publisher of new and used commercial vehicle (CV) industry data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American market, as well as the U.S. tractor-trailer market and the China CV market. ACT’s CV services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as the banking and investment community.

Media Contact:
Donavan Gerken